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Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

fortune.com

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Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#191

Post by mrguyorama »

mullingitover wrote: post #29
no_wizard wrote: post #15

Does this correctly factor in that currently the US is the western worlds de facto military, more or less? Because as long as we hold that position I don’t imagine the US government will be shut out of the debt markets at all. This is part of the problem I wager is there is still enormous incentive to keep the scheme afloat by other nations too

The dollar is still backed by a heavy metal, it just switched from gold to plutonium.

America would do everything it possibly could to avoid a nuclear exchange. It's literally the only feasible military threat to the country. As long as nukes remain taboo, America gets to play world police and mostly get away with being a bully in some places, because what are you going to do, fight them?

If you are willing to die to American soldiers 10:1 like the NVA or most of the middle east, you can prevent America from "winning", but you're still going to be living in a bombed out hellhole while teens share celebrity gossip in American homes with zero fear for their lives.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#192

Post by AlbertCory »

happytiger wrote: post #74
AlbertCory wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suppose you think the ridiculousness of those is self-evident. Sorry, no, you need to explain.

Ok. 1) The author is taking his own knowledge too seriously. 2) He is also boldly speaking about a subject not in his wheelhouse but with firm confidence (against his own advice). 3) He is also speaking about a reality in which everything is (ironically) obvious and well discussed as if it were novel. There is a vast ocean of difference between critique of an intellectual and actual criticism I fear may be lost on th…

> The author is taking his own knowledge too seriously.

I don't think this even makes any sense. If it's your own knowledge, of course you take it seriously.

> a subject not in his wheelhouse but with firm confidence (against his own advice)

Not in his wheelhouse? He became probably 100x as wealthy as you are (guessing) by having insights about risk that most people don't have. This gave him time to read virtually everything relevant on the subject.

Granted, he doesn't have a piece of paper from a university placing it "in his wheelhouse." If that's important to you, you have my sympathy.

> to point out when leading intellectuals gaffaw,

"gaffaw" is not even a word. If you meant "guffaw" that doesn't make sense. Maybe English isn't your primary language, in which case this forum probably is over your head.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#193

Post by JoBrad »

lucas_membrane wrote: post #170

The odd thing is that the federal government's balance sheet does not have to balance, and thus no credible federal balance sheet exists. The total (accounting, market, or replacement) value of all the nationally owned assets is not reported, nor is their annual depreciation. Thus, the net worth of the national government is largely unknown. That is good; if it were reported, many citizens might desire that the gover…

Not sure I’m really following you. The assets of a government are primarily GDP and economy. Those figures are reported quite regularly in the US and many other countries.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#194

Post by greedo »

ifyoubuildit wrote: post #147
LargeTomato wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our taxes cover entitlements, military, and debt. That's it. Everything else is coming from the deficit. The Republicans have cut taxes to an unsustainable level. No matter how big or small the rest of the government is, the tax base is too low to support it.

> have cut taxes to an unsustainable level Something like half of every dollar I make gets swallowed up by taxes of some sort, either directly or indirectly (by making products and services more expensive). A good portion of it just to fuck around in foreign countries against my wishes. How much more should they take?

Most of the tax cuts have benefited the "rich" than the average Joe.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#195

Post by pylua »

specialist wrote: post #151
pylua wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not always a good return on investment. When you spend someone else’s money you aren’t going to penny pinch or bargain hunt like you need to.

What determines a good investment? Who decides?

I think if this could be determined objectively politics would be greatly simplified.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#196

Post by happytiger »

foofie wrote: post #77
happytiger wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This really is one of the most interesting questions. Obviously, a loss of global prestige and reserve currency abandonment could be the result, but if there’s no other country to step in that has that prestige or offers a replacement… What aee the requirements of debt to suppory a global order? Is it the rise of debt thats the issue or the loss of faith in the global order that that debt represents ? People who unde…

> Obviously, a loss of global prestige and reserve currency abandonment could be the result, but if there’s no other country to step in that has that prestige or offers a replacement… I don't think the role of the US dolar as a reserve currency is put into question with a hypothetical default. The typical impact of a default is that lenders are stiffed out of the money they lended. Some might go bankrupt as a result,…

Great and thoughtful comment. Its perspective I spent the day thinking about and that’s the definition of a high quality thought.

Thank you.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#197

Post by happytiger »

AlbertCory wrote: post #192
happytiger wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok. 1) The author is taking his own knowledge too seriously. 2) He is also boldly speaking about a subject not in his wheelhouse but with firm confidence (against his own advice). 3) He is also speaking about a reality in which everything is (ironically) obvious and well discussed as if it were novel. There is a vast ocean of difference between critique of an intellectual and actual criticism I fear may be lost on th…

> The author is taking his own knowledge too seriously. I don't think this even makes any sense. If it's your own knowledge, of course you take it seriously. > a subject not in his wheelhouse but with firm confidence (against his own advice) Not in his wheelhouse? He became probably 100x as wealthy as you are (guessing) by having insights about risk that most people don't have. This gave him time to read virtually ev…

Albert, you continue to engage in unnecessary personal attacks and straw man arguments. Why make a conversation a personal attack?

Please stop.

You have no place acting like this on Hacker News. Read the rules.

Critique of the arguments vs criticism of the person, please.

Also, if you want to have a constructive conversation with someone, insulting them as a lead isn’t… great.

I’m sorry for the typo. It happens. Doesn’t make me an idiot. When I find people making typos, I don’t feel a need to demonstrate my questionable bias towards non-native speakers with a superior complex either: how do you think that would genuinely make a non-native speaker feel? Not great.

People make typos in casual communication (have you typed on a phone recently, it only works because of spell check!). It doesn’t make them lower on the totem pole or worth “going after” personally. What it does is it makes me someone who made a typo (the horror).

I wish you the best, but please stop making it unnecessarily personal.

This isn’t Usenet in 1993, and I’m allowed to dislike the arguments of public intellectuals as long as my arguments and criticisms are cogent. I’m not making jokes about the man’s mother, sir.

I don’t need to be personally bullied or called ‘a poor’ for not being as successful as the person I’m providing a critique about. That’s an overly personal attack that doesn’t have anything to do with the criticisms I’m levying toward him.

I would normally ignore such behavior, but this is a small community and you’re a public person, so I feel compelled to say something. Please don’t do this to others. Be well, HN friend.

I’m going to try to engage more in this forum, but obit if you think I belong. Maybe I should practice my English a bit moar.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#198

Post by happytiger »

edgyquant wrote: post #75
Stealthisbook wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Servicing the debt is an entirely political act. If the US government wants to pay its bills, it does. The alternative is unlikely, but interesting-what if the US just says no? What enforcement mechanism is there? The biggest trade partner, biggest military, and cultural hegemon says "what are you gonna do about it?" and you do what?

It’s more than everyone stops trusting they can loan money to the US government and the entire worlds financial system comes crashing down.

Just that? lol. :)

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#199

Post by ifyoubuildit »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #186
ifyoubuildit wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> have cut taxes to an unsustainable level Something like half of every dollar I make gets swallowed up by taxes of some sort, either directly or indirectly (by making products and services more expensive). A good portion of it just to fuck around in foreign countries against my wishes. How much more should they take?

I make about $120k/year. I have to pay taxes quarterly, since my income comes from my software business. I pay a total of 22.6% of my monthly income in federal and state (NM) taxes, and that currently nets me a significant refund every year since the TCJA ("Trump tax cuts").

So that's almost a quarter. Does that include social security and medicare?

Now what about property taxes (or your landlords property taxes if that's the case, which just goes onto your rent)? Sales taxes? Gas taxes? Alcohol and cigarette taxes? Any of 100 other taxes?

If you aren't brave enough to take on the tax code yourself, how much do you have to waste on accounting services so you don't wind up making a mistake that costs you even more?

Beyond that, what about all the taxes that come indirectly to you through the prices of everything you buy?

And while not technically a tax, every dollar you make is slowly eroded away by inflation.

Re: Nassim Taleb says the U.S. is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

#200

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

ifyoubuildit wrote: post #199
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I make about $120k/year. I have to pay taxes quarterly, since my income comes from my software business. I pay a total of 22.6% of my monthly income in federal and state (NM) taxes, and that currently nets me a significant refund every year since the TCJA ("Trump tax cuts").

So that's almost a quarter. Does that include social security and medicare? Now what about property taxes (or your landlords property taxes if that's the case, which just goes onto your rent)? Sales taxes? Gas taxes? Alcohol and cigarette taxes? Any of 100 other taxes? If you aren't brave enough to take on the tax code yourself, how much do you have to waste on accounting services so you don't wind up making a mistak…

That includes social security and medicare (as self-employment tax)

Property tax: $2200/yr Sales tax: hard to say, local rates are in the 5% range

I do my own taxes, have done every year since I moved to the USA 35 years ago.

I don't really have time for this over-generalized argument about "they tax everything", least of all when you try to bring inflation into it.

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