Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

191–200 of 456 posts

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#191

Post by time_to_smile »

fwlr wrote: post #182

I do wish someone would just acknowledge we’ve been getting “final warnings” as well as predictions of catastrophe every few years for decades now. Just recognize that I have to force myself quite hard to take this seriously. I do trust the science! But I trusted the science in 2017 and in 2012 and in 2009 and in 2004 and in 2000 and so on. I am making myself trust the science this time, again , and selfishly I would…

We have been getting warnings like this for years and for years things have been getting visibly worse.

I don't know how you "have to force myself quite hard to take this seriously" when the environment around us has been degrading faster than scientist have been claiming for years.

Maybe you're confused by how events related to climate catastrophe unfold? It's not like a nuclear bomb where one day everything is fine, then the next every thing is gone. That case is different in two major ways: the break down is instantaneous and a new normal is almost immediately established.

The final warning for climate is about a process that once started can no longer be stopped.

You don't have to "trust the science", you can literally watch it happen as the arctic heads rapidly towards a blue ocean event (see "arctic death spiral"), crop failures have been increasing, California has suffered extreme years of drought followed by this current season of incredible floods, lake mead reaches a lower level than it has since it was filled, Texas is subjected to extreme weather (in both directions) causing year after year failure of the power grid.

These things will continue to happen, will happen more frequently and at greater magnitude for the rest of your life.

If you feel unconvinced it's because you're in a state of denial (which in part of grieving so not terribly surprising or uncommon).

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#192

Post by myrmidon »

NhanH wrote: post #25

Let’s say if there is a magical wand that can will any policy the user wants to happen — so the magic can’t remove carbon, but it allows the bearer to pursue any mean within humanity technological abilities — what are the actual actions that could be taken to fight climate change? My impression is that even the big polluter like China (as an example) is already on full speed to build more nuclear plant or solar power…

Simply taxing CO2 emissions and maybe reinvesting some profits (into electrification and renewables) should do just fine.

The problem is people have to pay for these changes. This means potentially:

- General increase in prices/decrease in disposable income

- Danger for competitiveness of domestic industries

- Uncertain second-order effects/additional risk

Just consider electric vehicles-- pushing for no new combustion-car sales starting in 2025 would be political suicide in a lot of democractic nations, simply because people actually value future wellbeing on a planetary scale less than what's in their own pockets right now.

There is absolutely no need to go nuclear for electrical power at this point IMO-- it's not cost competitive, not sustainable and extremely unpopular, too.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#193

Post by tick_tock_tick »

NhanH wrote: post #25

Let’s say if there is a magical wand that can will any policy the user wants to happen — so the magic can’t remove carbon, but it allows the bearer to pursue any mean within humanity technological abilities — what are the actual actions that could be taken to fight climate change? My impression is that even the big polluter like China (as an example) is already on full speed to build more nuclear plant or solar power…

The biggest and simplest is build massive nuclear power plants and run carbon capture with the energy. It solves the issue it's just not very $$ efficient.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#194

Post by klabb3 »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #185

Just in case it saves one person the effort to research this themselves ... for some reason I find the measurement of climate change in units of temperature a bit problematic (though entirely rational). It tends to suggest the old bugbear of "global warming", which of course gets translated by deniers (& skeptics) into "well it's colder here so that's wrong". I spent a while digging in to try to get some numbers on a…

Yeah, those are interesting numbers. Another one I’m curious about is: how much faster are we burning fossil fuels than they are replenished naturally? The only number I found was a low estimate of 750x, and I think that was for oil. I assume “natural” gas is faster?

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#195

Post by yamtaddle »

fwlr wrote: post #182

I do wish someone would just acknowledge we’ve been getting “final warnings” as well as predictions of catastrophe every few years for decades now. Just recognize that I have to force myself quite hard to take this seriously. I do trust the science! But I trusted the science in 2017 and in 2012 and in 2009 and in 2004 and in 2000 and so on. I am making myself trust the science this time, again , and selfishly I would…

We'll keep getting "final warnings" as we pass "realistic hope of keeping warming under X" and "a sliver of hope for keeping warming under X if a literal miracle occurs" thresholds for different warming levels. The next major report like this will probably have a best-case scenario of more like 2.0C. We're at "a sliver of hope if a literal miracle occurs" for 1.5C (realistic hope of keeping it that low was probably gone a decade ago, and you may have seen that shift reflected in earlier reports) and have passed similar thresholds for 1.0C already.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#196

Post by johnnymorgan »

ewjt wrote: post #130
johnnymorgan wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point he is making is the disconnect between models and reality. Also when are people held accountable for their models being wrong and the output that comes from that. Climate models has a terrible track record and have failed to materialize over and over again. We have environmental crises all over the place which we should be focused on. The two are not the same thing and climate activism seems to not care abo…

Please back up the claim "climate models has a terrible track record" and qualify the word 'terrible'. Casting blame is a common denier tactic [1] used despite the models being useful and accurate [2]. The "whataboutisms" you mention are another common tactic. [3] Blaming EV batteries is a red herring; they have much lower lifecycle emissions than gas-based engines. [4] [1] https://skepticalscience.com/climate-models…

[flagged]

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#197

Post by raffraffraff »

fwlr wrote: post #182

I do wish someone would just acknowledge we’ve been getting “final warnings” as well as predictions of catastrophe every few years for decades now. Just recognize that I have to force myself quite hard to take this seriously. I do trust the science! But I trusted the science in 2017 and in 2012 and in 2009 and in 2004 and in 2000 and so on. I am making myself trust the science this time, again , and selfishly I would…

> Everyone keeps saying the water is getting hotter! I trust the thermometer I really do! It just doesn't feel like it's getting hotter to me!

- the slow-boiling frog

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#198

Post by tick_tock_tick »

ixtli wrote: post #29
NhanH wrote: post #25

Let’s say if there is a magical wand that can will any policy the user wants to happen — so the magic can’t remove carbon, but it allows the bearer to pursue any mean within humanity technological abilities — what are the actual actions that could be taken to fight climate change? My impression is that even the big polluter like China (as an example) is already on full speed to build more nuclear plant or solar power…

There is no way except property seizure and capital reallocation at a large scale. This wont happen, so we're effectively doomed to suffer the slow violence of the inaction of our owners who themselves will never live to feel the harm they're aiding and abetting.

That is a very good point; nothing has done more to solve starvation or improve the global standard of living then capitalism. If we manage a hard switch to another system the mass deaths from starvation and the collapse of the standard of living should greatly reduce carbon emissions.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#199

Post by myrmidon »

PurpleRamen wrote: post #49
NhanH wrote: post #25

Let’s say if there is a magical wand that can will any policy the user wants to happen — so the magic can’t remove carbon, but it allows the bearer to pursue any mean within humanity technological abilities — what are the actual actions that could be taken to fight climate change? My impression is that even the big polluter like China (as an example) is already on full speed to build more nuclear plant or solar power…

But removing carbon is within humanities technological abilities. I mean, just plant enough trees, and it's mostly done. This is not even a matter of technology. Removing sources of pollution, like certain animals we use for food and other things is another simple solution, which demands not technology at all. This problem is not a matter of technology, it's yet another problem of society and people.

> I mean, just plant enough trees, and it's mostly done. This is not even a matter of technology.

Carbon capture is completely unplausible. Annual US CO2/capita is ~15tons, we simply can't realistically plant enough trees.

Currently there is no way to do anything that would have sufficient effect to compensate current pollution-- we HAVE to reduce it at the source.

But I completely agree that it is mostly just the will that is lacking.

Re: IPCC climate crisis report delivers ‘final warning on 1.5C’

#200

Post by tick_tock_tick »

aaomidi wrote: post #85
numbers_guy wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What the fuck do you even mean with "nothing happens", when the climate has been changing noticeably for the past decade already?

I know right? We’re seeing crop failure after crop failure. Whole ecosystems are collapsing. Tornados and floods are happening in places they had never happened in. Europe and the US are going to be impacted way later than everyone else other than the immigration wave they’re going to have to deal with. It’s a sick joke that the countries with the ability to do something about this are also going to be the last ones…

> We’re seeing crop failure after crop failure.

Where? We just saw some of the best grain yields globally.

Post reply on HN