Astonishingly strong US jobs report sends stocks wavering • Hacker News Board

Re: Astonishingly strong US jobs report sends stocks wavering

#191

Post by usrusr » Sat, Feb 04, 2023, 2:21 AM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #170

usrusr wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Inflation benefits people in debt And weighed by the amount of debt, those are mostly people rich enough to hire specialists for the tedious parts of using some (most) of their assets as collateral for further investment. People living paycheck to paycheck, on maxed out credit cards, those are not the winners of inflation you are looking for.

Those people have lots of debt in the form of home, car and student loans.

Hardly more than few years of wages. And when inflation hits, those wages usually trail behind quite considerably. Some may still come out positive, but not by much. The winners of inflation are the leveraged investment class.

Re: Astonishingly strong US jobs report sends stocks wavering

#192

Post by jacknews » Sat, Feb 04, 2023, 2:43 AM UTC

BurningFrog wrote: post #184

jacknews wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've provided an explanation (which I'm also completely familiar with) but not a rationale. What is really happening is that corporate profits are set to be squeezed (slightly) by rising costs, both labor and capital, and so that provides a reason why stock prices go down. But it doesn't answer the actual question, of why everything going great should be a bad thing.

That question is answered quite well in the post you're commenting.

As I said, the answer is just an explanation, which I'm quite familiar with, though I dispute that inflation is necessarily 'very bad'.

"It's just money. It's made up"

Our 20th century financial system is as much made up as it is 'fundamental economics' and it has now got out of hand,and proves to be unfit for the duty of serving society for the 21st century. As evidence, when strong job creation and economic growth is 'bad'.

Re: Astonishingly strong US jobs report sends stocks wavering

#193

Post by actually_a_dog » Sat, Feb 04, 2023, 6:03 AM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #139

actually_a_dog wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be making a number of assumptions here that don't necessarily hold. For instance, yes, a house is often a middle class family's biggest asset. But, there's no way to directly tap into that asset without selling or taking out some kind of loan against it (second mortgage, HELOC, even a reverse mortgage if they're old enough). All of those things have, let's say, significant costs and disadvantages. Yes, "i…

> For instance, yes, a house is often a middle class family's biggest asset. But, there's no way to directly tap into that asset without selling or taking out some kind of loan against it (second mortgage, HELOC, even a reverse mortgage if they're old enough). All of those things have, let's say, significant costs and disadvantages. You're missing the biggest advantage: They bought the house with a fixed mortgage pay…

No, I am not "missing the biggest advantage." You simply did not understand the words I used to describe it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imputed_rent

I notice you have no problem with the other 3 links I provided. I suppose those are not "clickbait journalism?" If you expect me to change my mind based on the chart in the article, you are mistaken. Only 44% of people surveyed are able to cover a $1000 expense from savings. That means 56% would not be able to. What are your specific objections to the survey's methodology?

I also don't think you understand why getting a loan to pay expenses isn't a great idea. Perhaps try spending some time in the real world, where people are drowning, and the real economy is on fire.

Re: Astonishingly strong US jobs report sends stocks wavering

#194

Post by actually_a_dog » Sat, Feb 04, 2023, 7:00 AM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #112

actually_a_dog wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The government is a democracy... No, it isn't, and this isn't some "it's a reeeeepublic" rant, either. When half the population couldn't legally vote for most of the country's history, that's not very democratic. "Oligarchy" is a better fit, but apparently we only reserve that for countries we don't like. Average individuals working average jobs and making average incomes get next to no say in anything that happens…

That point I was trying to make is that if the economy were bad enough, people would vote out the incumbent government in droves. The vote is a safety value that prevents riots and armed revolution. Autocracies are brittle to changing public perception and can go the way of the guillotine.

The phrase "bad enough" is doing an awful lot of work here.

Besides, whatever party is in charge, the other party is always nearly as bad or worse. First past the post, the Electoral College, and campaign finance law all but ensure that your only two choices are the right wing neoliberal party or the ultra right wing neoliberal party.

Re: Astonishingly strong US jobs report sends stocks wavering

#195

Post by looping__lui » Sat, Feb 04, 2023, 10:20 AM UTC

anonymouskimmer wrote: post #190

Godel_unicode wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand your point. It’s not a zero-sum game where some people are forced to clean houses. If they want to not clean houses they can change career. If you don’t pay them you’re not somehow freeing them up to realize their potential, you’re just giving them fewer customers. At least where I live a lot of professional house cleaners are small business owners.

Sure, I'm probably going to extremes. There are definite economies of scale to specialize in house cleaning and the like. I'm thinking more about the stereotypical rich person type of service with multiple dedicated servants for a single household.

I also think you should grow your own vegetables, keep your own chicken and generate your own electricity. I mean, I’m thinking more about the stereotypical first world person that can just go into a supermarket and buy whatever he wants.

Re: Astonishingly strong US jobs report sends stocks wavering

#196

Post by bjourne » Sat, Feb 04, 2023, 10:59 AM UTC

kspacewalk2 wrote: post #183

bjourne wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Incorrect. Why did you ask the question if you thought you already knew the answer? By definition, savings are being saved . Investments are being invested . If you think that savings and investments are synonymous then you are wrong. According to https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/heres-exactly-how-much-ame... the median American has accumulated a measly $6,400 in their decade before retirement. Money they will the…

>Why did you ask the question if you thought you already knew the answer? "Incorrect" referred to "savings are money not being used", i.e. the rationale for your answer, not your answer itself. >If you think that savings and investments are synonymous then you are wrong. You just need to think it through a few more steps. For example, what do banks do? They take your savings and invest them. Bottom line is, savings a…

Read the sibling's comment because this is incorrect:

> Bottom line is, savings are absolutely, definitely, and crucially not "money not being used".

By definition, "savings" are not being used. Had they been used trickle-down economics would have been an awesome policy. You'd just put more money on rich peoples' bank accounts and the money would magically reappear in someone else's pockets!

The median American retirement fund is about $90,000. Regardless how you count that is not a lot.

Re: Astonishingly strong US jobs report sends stocks wavering

#197

Post by refurb » Sat, Feb 04, 2023, 11:51 AM UTC

harimau777 wrote: post #157

refurb wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, what happens is wage pressure translates into higher input costs and higher prices thus fueling inflation. And that hurts low wage workers because any wage increase gets eaten up by inflation and cycle continues. If we were in a low inflation environment then the fed wouldnt be concerned about low unemployment and rising wages at all.

I don't think that's different than what I said. Wages started increasing and the economy started to fall apart prompting the Fed to step in. That means that the system is broken. There is no way for the lower class to get ahead. If they make higher wages then prices will simply increase so that they aren't actually ahead.

Of course there are ways for the lower class to get ahead - economic growth without high inflation.

Like I said in another comment, if wages were going up in a low inflation environment, the fed wouldn't be concerned at all.

Re: Astonishingly strong US jobs report sends stocks wavering

#198

Post by anonymouskimmer » Sat, Feb 04, 2023, 4:22 PM UTC

looping__lui wrote: post #195

anonymouskimmer wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, I'm probably going to extremes. There are definite economies of scale to specialize in house cleaning and the like. I'm thinking more about the stereotypical rich person type of service with multiple dedicated servants for a single household.

I also think you should grow your own vegetables, keep your own chicken and generate your own electricity. I mean, I’m thinking more about the stereotypical first world person that can just go into a supermarket and buy whatever he wants.

Unfortunately the majority of people in the first world live in areas where that just isn't possible. Outside of a potted plant or two.

But yes, victory gardens FTW! :) At the very least they build in more resiliency.

I think you're being tongue in cheek, but I responded to a person elsewhere online a while back from India who was basically justifying hiring servants as being beneficial. I disagree and think that that's a sink of human resources. The economy, and capitalism, can come up with better uses for most people who are full-time servants.

Re: Astonishingly strong US jobs report sends stocks wavering

#199

Post by abirch » Sat, Feb 04, 2023, 5:03 PM UTC

d23 wrote: post #25

I really hate financial headlines. The S&P is still up 3.08% this week . This headline makes today's 0.65% drop sound catastrophic.

What I hate about financial headlines is the ease of causational attribution. The same event can be used to explain two diametrically opposed outcomes.

Re: Astonishingly strong US jobs report sends stocks wavering

#200

Post by dang » Sat, Feb 04, 2023, 7:27 PM UTC

staringback wrote: post #24

[flagged]

Please don't do that here.

Also, please stop posting flamebait and/or unsubstantive comments to HN. You've been doing it repeatedly and we eventually have to ban that sort of account.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html