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Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

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191–200 of 282 posts

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#191
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your etc is doing a lot of work here, but post COVID craziness aside I don't think building materials are more expensive than they were in 1990. As an example, lumber has been flat or slightly down since 1995: https://www.lesprom.com/en/news/U_S_lumber_prices_in_2020_an...

His point is, the material standard of living is low as ever or even lower. This surprises people, but the bare necesities of the lowest level of maslow's heirarchy of needs are now more expensive than they have been in a long time. Just look at the cost of shelter. Housing costs sooo much more than it did 50 years ago or even 200 years ago. During the time of Henry david thoreau, an average house cost 800 days of un…

That's not true at all. Most necessities (food, clothing) are far cheaper now in real terms than they were in the past.

Housing is more expensive on average, but only because houses have gotten much larger (the average new house was ~1000 sqft in 1920 and ~2600 sqft today), and are more likely to be in urban areas where land is scarce (20% urban in 1860 to 80% urban today). Of course modern housing is built to a much higher standard as well -- in Thoreau's time, the average home would not have had indoor plumbing or electricity.

You can absolutely find cheap housing if you're willing to live somewhere small in the middle of nowhere. But most people don't want to do that these days.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#192
post #180
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Private debt dwarfed public debt until very recently, and it's still significany higher: https://braveneweurope.com/steve-keen-what-is-the-role-of-pu... Also GDP is a terrible proxy for economic prosperity. A broken window adds to GDP, but subtracts from prosperity. If we had a better proxy for prosperity, it would be easier to see if government debt was actually net negative or net positive effect. As is, all argume…

Just because a broken window contributes to GDP doesn’t mean GDP is bad. Is your argument that the government is spending to break windows?

basically, yes. Its called the housing market - an asset that controbutes nothing to the economy goes up in value and makes life unaffordable for new generations.

There are pther manofestations of thos, and it is not always done by governments.

One of the few true reflections of economic health is commodities - those cannot be fakes.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#193

Until the beginning of the 20th century, stocks were viewed as a purely speculative investment. The idea that buy and hold will provide great returns is a modern one and is supported by the growth of the stock market in the 20th century. There is also the issue of survivorship bias. The SP500 and Dow Jones indices regularly discard the losers and add new companies, so we don't know the true results of holding compani…

Is there a strategy that reliably beats buy and hold? Obviously not or everyone would do it.

And no investment professional worth their salt would advise to buy individual companies to hold for the long term (almost all will go out of business or underperform eventually) so I'm not sure what purpose the survivorship bias comment serves.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#194

One of the charts you don't see is the performance of the stock market from say 1900-1950 for countries like Russia, Japan, France or Germany. We have this point of view that the US is a good place to invest, but to an investor in 1900 that might not have been such an obvious choice. Looking back 50 years from now it may seem like it was obvious the US was going to collapse from some political issue and clear that yo…

Which is why you're supposed to buy all world indexes like VT.

If that doesn't work, it's likely nothing will have (besides gold and ammo).

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His point is, the material standard of living is low as ever or even lower. This surprises people, but the bare necesities of the lowest level of maslow's heirarchy of needs are now more expensive than they have been in a long time. Just look at the cost of shelter. Housing costs sooo much more than it did 50 years ago or even 200 years ago. During the time of Henry david thoreau, an average house cost 800 days of un…

That's not true at all. Most necessities (food, clothing) are far cheaper now in real terms than they were in the past. Housing is more expensive on average, but only because houses have gotten much larger (the average new house was ~1000 sqft in 1920 and ~2600 sqft today), and are more likely to be in urban areas where land is scarce (20% urban in 1860 to 80% urban today). Of course modern housing is built to a much…

> You can absolutely find cheap housing if you're willing to live somewhere small in the middle of nowhere

I camt get to work from the middle of nowhere. Social services willvtake away my kids if O live in a wooden hut without heating.

Let's compare items with equivalents of their time.

Otherwise I can make unfavourable comparison with cavemen -their realestate would cost millions today

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#197
post #178
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food is heavily subsidized by the government to avoid complete and total social instability. 100 years ago we realized that a underfed population made a terrible workforce and worked on remediating that. All the while farming automation and the green revolution made it so a large portion of our population working in farming/food became just a very tiny fraction. Meanwhile a pure capitalism based farming community wou…

> a pure capitalism based farming community would optimize for producing just in time and just enough to maximize profits which would lead to a complete fucking collapse next time a drought came around I'm not sure where you got this idea, but unless you have a personal definition of capitalism that doesn't equate to private ownership of the means of production, this is an obviously false claim. Capitalist economies…

> Capitalist economies are notable for their ever increasing investment in the future

Oh really? Then why are all emergency services are run by governments?

Why doesnt private market invest in infrastructure and why is US infrasteucture in such poor condition?

Is that why capitalist society fails to invest into clean energy and hault climate change? Is that why soil erosion was running rampant untill government regulation was introduced, we had lead in petrol and rivers used to catch fire?

UK, as the most capitalist societt in Europe, looses the most money on heating the most poorly insulated houses. It knocked down its last gas storage facility because it was unprofitable.

Capitalis plans for the next quartery report, it does not plan fpr once in a decade famine. systemic relisience against rainy day is not one of its strength.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#198
Geometric mean

I’m surprised to see no mention of geometric mean.

People far too often incorrectly use Arithmetic Mean (“average”), which doesn’t compute correctly due to the compounding nature of the stock market.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/071113/break...

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#199
post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because a broken window contributes to GDP doesn’t mean GDP is bad. Is your argument that the government is spending to break windows?

basically, yes. Its called the housing market - an asset that controbutes nothing to the economy goes up in value and makes life unaffordable for new generations. There are pther manofestations of thos, and it is not always done by governments. One of the few true reflections of economic health is commodities - those cannot be fakes.

Productivity has been increasing. The amount of land is fixed. In such a scenario, I would definitely expect the value of land to increase.

Re: Stock market charts you never saw (2021)

#200
post #68
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Tech advancements are slowing down Are they? I think they've been slow for maybe the last 20 years, but it seems like the advances in things like AI and Genomics are rapidly accelerating and may lead to growth like we haven't seen in several decades...

> I think they've been slow for maybe the last 20 years Really? 20 years is the difference between a generation being raised pre/post: * smart phones * streaming services (endless free content) * massive computing storage / processing upgrades * mass adoption of eCommerce * video calling * ubiquitous social networking * EVs * mRNA vaccines * Mars exploration * LHC * 3D printing It amazes me to look back at 2003 and s…

Between 1940s to 1980s we went from a disconnected world to spaceflight, moon landings and global commercial aviation. Radar was invented, the atom was split, nuclear weapons shook the world. Television appeared

What have you got to place against that, smartphones? Streaming, seruously?

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