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Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

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Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#191

Post by synu »

ramesh31 wrote: post #165
idopmstuff wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. That actually really gives me hope for a soft landing - those high-wage folks are much less likely to have…

>As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. Shit rolls downhill. We'll see how well the service economy holds up when their client base has been out o…

Are tech workers really the basis of the service economy? And even if so, will they remain so if lower wage earners, of which there are quite a lot more, start earning relatively more?

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#192

Post by rippercushions »

tempsy wrote: post #152
idopmstuff wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. That actually really gives me hope for a soft landing - those high-wage folks are much less likely to have…

total revolving consumer credit aka credit card debt is a straight line up going to hit $1 trillion soon for the first time. seems not great in face of high interest rates. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG

And that doesn't even include the explosion in Buy Now Pay Later services like Afterpay, which are very much debt but likely don't show up in the report.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#193

Post by Spartan-S63 »

grey-area wrote: post #138
idopmstuff wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. That actually really gives me hope for a soft landing - those high-wage folks are much less likely to have…

But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. There will not be a soft landing. When has there ever been a soft landing and how would raising rates into a recession ever result in one? Raising rates takes 1 year to come through to the real economy - we haven't even seen the impact yet, only on stock prices which foreshado…

I really wish we had other tools than the Fed at our disposal. Legislation could be passed to create surtaxes on profits that exceed the current rate of inflation to help curb the inflation spiral. Likewise, we could pass legislation restricting the ability of private banks to grant lines of credit (so as to shrink the money supply on the supply-side rather than the demand-side). Either way, it would be nice to see the supply-side take a hit in this circumstance rather than the demand-side. Hit the asset-holding classes harder than the wage-earning classes. Ultimately, it's the asset-holding class that got us into this disaster in the first place.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#194

Post by Spartan-S63 »

yebyen wrote: post #187
themitigating wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Unemployment is the goal of this Fed policy - that is the point - cause unemployment so that inflation goes away." Why would this be a goal?

The idea is I think that inflation is caused by too much money supply in circulation, caused by overemployment, and the only cure for that is less employment. It's a lot like how inflation and deflation are two sides of the same coin, but you wouldn't "root for deflation" because that's just the opposite extreme – Fed doesn't want everyone to lose their jobs, "just a healthy amount"

This the reality because there's no political will for Congress to act, so we're left the Fed to implement anti-inflationary measures. A sufficiently empowered legislature might attack this on the supply-side so that nominal increases in wages could become real increases in wages while discouraging the supply-side from increasing prices to rent-seek those nominally increased wages.

It sucks, but it is what it is. The rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#195

Post by ryanSrich »

themitigating wrote: post #186
ryanSrich wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2008 lasted nearly 17 months. The hard part is deciding when the recession actually started. The media and government is in denial, so they'd tell you we aren't even in a recession yet. But the rule of thumb is typically two negative quarters of GDP growth, which we hit this summer. If you run a VC backed business my suggestion is 24-30 months of runway is a good starting point. As far as individuals go, it's not a b…

"The media and government is in denial, so they'd tell you we aren't even in a recession yet." There are costant headlines about layoffs. Also you said that a recession has a defintion, if that hasn't happened how is the media and government in denial?

Like I said in my comment, it did happen. This summer we hit 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. At the time, and even now, the media is suddenly moving the goal posts and trying to redefine what a recession is.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#196

Post by TigerTeamX »

super256 wrote: post #96
dakiol wrote: post #86

Perhaps I'm naive, but I think companies are doing massive layoffs these days because of some sort of "domino effect". There are companies out there who would love to lay off half their staff, but in regular times they couldn't just do it (because it wasn't a common thing, and makes them look "bad"... everyone would protest). But since nowadays every damn company is doing massive layoffs (and not unknown companies, b…

The FED is currently raising rates to fight inflation. One of the FED's main goals is slowing down demand, as policymakers can't control supply. So, to fight that elevated inflation they are killing demand, and when demand sharply drops, you can't keep paying your workers as before (because you sell less goods!). Moreover, companies simply got fat during the pandemic and over hired. I mean, there are probably also a…

Thanks for the good explanation

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#197

Post by P_I_Staker »

idopmstuff wrote: post #145
grey-area wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. There will not be a soft landing. When has there ever been a soft landing and how would raising rates into a recession ever result in one? Raising rates takes 1 year to come through to the real economy - we haven't even seen the impact yet, only on stock prices which foreshado…

> There will not be a soft landing. The reality is we cannot see the future of our incredibly complex, ever-changing economy. Sure, this hasn't happened in the past, but on the other hand the economy today is vastly different than it was even fifty years ago. Not to say we couldn't end in a recession - of course that is a distinct possibility - but the reality is that we don't have a ton of history to draw on when it…

This is a classic, desperate hope that people have going into a recession. "This time could be different". We've been waiting a long time for this one. It's not just about COVID, otherwise why would it happen as things get better.

Many of these businesses being hit were long overdue for a fall and behaving highly irrationally. This borders on the severity of the .com bust, though it does appear to be less severe.

How do we know it won't be worse either? We could be heading into a downturn and turmoil to rival the great depression.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#198

Post by P_I_Staker »

coffeebeqn wrote: post #132
idopmstuff wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. That actually really gives me hope for a soft landing - those high-wage folks are much less likely to have…

Even more it still seems like it’s mainly companies who doubled their headcount since COVID started because someone extrapolated the madness to last forever? I sure hope the first in line for layoffs are the people who thought that was a great idea

To a lot of people it seemed like things were really heating up.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#199

Post by jupp0r »

abirch wrote: post #179
jupp0r wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unemployment is at a record low. US economy added 223k new jobs in December. US Q3 GDP increased annualized 3.2% over Q2. Some companies are doing layoffs (mainly those that overhired during COVID), others aren't. Look at the data instead of clickbait headlines and everything looks much less bleak. If you are really certain you can forecast how the economy is going to do with high accuracy, get a job at some hedge fu…

Have you seen housing? https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/12/01/real-estate-... it's going to get hit even harder. Unemployment is low due to a lot of early retirement/retirement. It is obvious we're headed for a recession, the question is how bad will it be. Will China's housing market collapse?

Retirement doesn't explain the economy adding 230k jobs. Retirement leads to the same jobs being backfilled.

Housing market is a completely different discussion. Interest rates rising of course lead to price drops here.

I'll start worrying about a recession once GDP falls and jobs are eliminated instead of added from the economy.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#200

Post by abirch »

mdorazio wrote: post #190
abirch wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen housing? https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/12/01/real-estate-... it's going to get hit even harder. Unemployment is low due to a lot of early retirement/retirement. It is obvious we're headed for a recession, the question is how bad will it be. Will China's housing market collapse?

Which part are you referring to? Price increases slowing and stalling? Because that’s not exactly the end of the world for the housing market.

Housing starts (new construction). Home sales (it's harder and harder to get a mortgage). If you know any real estate agents take them out to lunch because most are hurting. Oddly housing prices aren't dropping as much as they should due to the higher interest rates, i.e., people are staying in their homes so not too much inventory.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-single-family-housing-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-28/us-housin...

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