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Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

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Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#191

Post by panick21_ »

pmlnr wrote: post #170
NKosmatos wrote: post #75

We need more nuclear power plants and we need them yesterday, there is no other mid term solution for the ongoing/coming energy crisis. The problem is that replacing old nuclear power plants (or building new ones) takes many years, time we don’t have… Let’s see how this situation evolves.

Yeah... about that. I was completely pro-nuclear until very recently, when I learnt that: - the summer droughts caused nuclear reactors to stop due to the lack of water - russia provides ~40% of ALL nuclear fuel - even France is getting their from Kazahstan So in light of these: more solar and wind, combined with possibly metan generation to store it as per https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2022/07/22/were-going-to-…

> - the summer droughts caused nuclear reactors to stop due to the lack of water

That very much depends on specific technology and is not inherent in all nuclear. If and how much water is needed depends very much on what and where you are building.

If we were not stuck with technology from 1960 this wouldn't have been an issue for decades, but instead of innovating the last 40 years nuclear industry had to fight a battle for survival and with very little research.

> - russia provides ~40% of ALL nuclear fuel

This is because Russia had a explicit policy of underbidding nuclear everybody in nuclear fuel providing.

This is not inevitable, there is plenty of nuclear material in lots of places and many places that can make fuel.

Nuclear fuel is far easier to transport then gas.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#192

Post by kennend3 »

panick21_ wrote: post #176
sschueller wrote: post #8

Here is what Switzerland is doing at the moment to prevent the worst case which would be rolling black outs. They are planning for the worst case so they don't get caught with their pants down. This includes: - Currently trying to fill as many reservoirs as possible - Securing gas in foreign reservoirs. - Plan for emergency gas plants that can be operational by January/February, the time Switzerland has the least ele…

The saddest vote (outside of immigration) in Swiss history is our complete destruction of nuclear energy in terms of both research and production. Instead of building new reactors we have committed to ... something. I only hope we can overturn this complete idiocy and start to build new reactors. Having been a fan of this for so long this is just sad and pathetic that we now have to consider things like rolling black…

As someone who is also "pro-nuclear" it is upsetting to see this take place.

The "anti-nuclear" camp has won, but based on what sort of logical argument? Fear? what about Chernobyl?

It is one thing to be "anti-nuclear" but they failed to provide alternatives. "WIND" or "Solar" is not going to replace 3,500 MW of nuclear power without damaging a LOT of land.

Now millions face rolling blackouts and energy shortages when nuclear could have been providing clean energy. I live within 8KM of a nuclear plant which has been running accident free 24x7 since 1971.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#193

Post by algorias »

koheripbal wrote: post #146
quonn wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let‘s see. France heats with incredibly inefficient wall heaters. In any case, this winter is very special. It‘s not a good example to make an argument for one technology or another. Long-term I think Germany is better prepared. A lot of work has been going into heat pumps, properly isolating houses, renewables and so on.

WINTER is a special case? Is this a serious comment? If renewables cannot handle WINTER then that's pretty telling of what quality of a solution it is.

We're talking about a winter with out-of-equilibrium energy markets here, not generic winter.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#194

Post by The_Colonel »

koheripbal wrote: post #142
flohofwoe wrote: post #9

Quoted post unavailable.

Are you honestly suggesting this is a fabricated crisis?

Isn't it obvious? Gas is not sanctioned, yet the supply of Russian gas to Europe was significantly reduced. After many b***t excuses, Russia admitted that the gas supplies won't be resumed until the sanctions are lifted.

So yes, the crisis is manufactured by Russia to produce a political leverage. And part of that strategy is of course spreading FUD through various media.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#195

Post by baobabKoodaa »

astra90 wrote: post #47
pennaMan wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just..... Why? This is so balatanly stupid I can't find my words..

In 2003, the Belgian government decided to stop producing nuclear energy, mostly driven by the Green party. They introduced a law that contained a schedule to shut down a number of nuclear power plants in the country. In 2015 the government already extended the lifespan of 2 nuclear power plants. However, the power plant that was just shut down (Doel 3) did not get an extension of lifespan and so it has been shut dow…

Let me get this straight... Politicians wrote a schedule in 2003. According to the schedule, this particular plant should be shut down now. And we have people in this thread (not you) claiming that there are "technical reasons" why the plant has to be shut down right now, not after this winter. So, by pure coincidence, politicians in 2003 just happened to predict the exact date 19 years in the future when it would no longer be technically feasible to operate the plant? The exact date! Can I please have these same politicians predict next week's lottery numbers for me?

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#196

Post by panick21_ »

pydry wrote: post #183
NKosmatos wrote: post #75

We need more nuclear power plants and we need them yesterday, there is no other mid term solution for the ongoing/coming energy crisis. The problem is that replacing old nuclear power plants (or building new ones) takes many years, time we don’t have… Let’s see how this situation evolves.

>We need more nuclear power plants They're 5x more expensive than wind and solar and about 2x more expensive than a wind+solar+pumped storage combo. In France their capacity factor has declined to ~72% which is only about 5% above the best wind farms. What's the up side? I dont see it any more. It's an overpriced means of generating electricity that is slightly less variable that has a lead time of 19.5 years more th…

This 5x number is nonsense. Its generalizing for a few projects that happened in a time when there was very limited constructionist and because of 40 years of neglect not even a workforce that was available.

> wind+solar+pumped storage combo

Pumped storage is available in most places. And there is literally no alternative.

Its insane to build a society on a technology that if something goes wrong, society only has 1-2 days of electricity storage.

> In France their capacity factor has declined to ~72% which is only about 5% above the best wind farms.

The best windfarms that only exist in a few places and is certainty not generally that high.

An France this year had some issues that happened because nuclear was neglected for years as their leadership jumped on the all renewables trend.

France had advanced reactors in the 90s and guess what, instead of building them they were killed in the endless attempted by some forces (usually greens and left) to prevent nuclear from happening.

Had France simply build 3-5 of those plants they had ready in the late 90s they would be amazing by now.

> slightly less variable

Is actually much less variable if you look at it in totality.

> lead time of 19.5 years

Again this is just generalizing from the worst possible example. If a country actually commits to building a significant amount of plants rather then a single project that constantly on the verge of being canceled things look quite different.

Had Germany in 2000 simply started to build as many reactors as possible they would be finishing them at many a year now and building them at a rate of 4-5 years a pop. They would be far more green and far more reliably then what they have actually managed with their green revolution (and huge investment in gas).

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#197

Post by kennend3 »

bombcar wrote: post #21
sschueller wrote: post #8

Here is what Switzerland is doing at the moment to prevent the worst case which would be rolling black outs. They are planning for the worst case so they don't get caught with their pants down. This includes: - Currently trying to fill as many reservoirs as possible - Securing gas in foreign reservoirs. - Plan for emergency gas plants that can be operational by January/February, the time Switzerland has the least ele…

I wonder if it is cost effective going forward to install two meters and panels on every house with one being “essential” and the other being “intermittent” so the power company has the option of blacking out the intermittent boxes only. I’d rather have all my computers, lights, etc shut down than my whole house.

Here (Ontario) we have "time of use" billing https://www.oeb.ca/consumer-information-and-protection/elect...

The idea is to move "load" from peaks to avoid shortages by charging more to use power during peaks.

The idea of "priority customers" has a long standing principle. "High usage" customers often agree to be the first to be cut in return for discounts.

Targeting "residential customers" in this way is NOT effective as it takes a LOT of houses to equal the amount of power "commercial/industrial" users consume.

Time of use billing is probably the better option.

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#198

Post by distances »

origin_path wrote: post #81
distances wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are currently no European sanctions against Russian gas. Nobody is very happy about it, but Europe would still buy that gas if the pipelines were open.

Multiple gas pipelines from Russia are closed because European governments refuse to allow them to run. That's gas sanctions, why do you argue otherwise? For example Germany refuses to open Nord Stream 2, and Nord Stream 1 is broken due to sanctions on equipment repair - the turbines are made by Siemens and several are sitting in UK factories unable to be re-exported back due to sanctions. Although the troubles with…

You have quite the nerve to spread these falsehoods here, and then claim it's Europe that is the unreliable partner. Amazing and supremely twisted.

I have no interest in discussing this with you as you're not here with good intentions, but I would let others know that Western countries were very accommodating with the spare parts, which in practice called the Russian bluff. I doubt Germany will go back to Russian gas after they pulled this one.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-turbine-...

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#199

Post by panick21_ »

hrpnk wrote: post #155
koheripbal wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wave of mass hysteria in Germany, after the Japan incident, to kill nuclear (which I personally suspect was driven by Russian influence operations) came with broad public support. ...so no, I continue to have little sympathy to any issues Germany will have this winter.

Regarding influence - there is a fairly recent report (Sep, 20th) from German journalists on the Russian lobby: https://correctiv-org.translate.goog/aktuelles/russland-ukra...

Well German politicians had little other options. The country is so hilariously anti-nuclear and you clearly can't bank on renewables without storage, what other then gas should they have done?

Gas from the US or the middle east maybe?

Re: Europe is in danger of rolling electricity shortages

#200

Post by kennend3 »

elric wrote: post #159
bombcar wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US houses can draw 166 KW (or half that if older 100amp service) but you’d probably be raided for running a grow op.

I think you've got your units mixed up. 100A @ 120V = 12kW. Assuming the newer homes are 200A, that would be 24kW. 166kW seems ... unreasonable, especially over 120V, that's like 1400A. Toasty.

As the other person posted, you are mistaken.

Houses in north America are fed with two 120V "legs" and so the 100A is actually at 240V.

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