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A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

reneweconomy.com.au

191–200 of 365 posts

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US military spends more on renewables each year than most countries. They were on board long before the wider US Government felt it was politically safe. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-military-green-energy... > The military’s push into alternative energy started under Republican President George W. Bush in 2007, when he signed a law requiring the Pentagon to get 25 percent of the electricity for its buil…

Who knows, maybe one day, all of the tensions (wars, etc.) between countries that is rooted in access to oil reserves disappear because of this. One can dream…

> tensions (wars, etc.) between countries that is rooted in access to oil reserves disappear because of this

Unlikely. Lithium, minerals and advanced manufacturing clusters remain geographically concentrated and adversarially demanded.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quite a lot of people live in Texas and California where renewables are already pretty advanced, plus there's nuclear in the north, and they have hydro and grid connections with Canada who have even more hydro and nuclear so the USA should be easier. The US intends to hit this target (i.e. 95% carbon-free generation) in 8 years I think, with 100% and wider electrification of current fossil fuel uses in 2035 and it di…

The problem is that electrification of fossil fuel applications is going to significantly increase the demand on our grid. So it’s not enough to get to parity in renewables, but we have to go far beyond our current capacity in order to accommodate a world in which almost every car is electric (whether electric hybrid or green hydrogen) and almost every home uses electric rather than natural gas for heating (not to me…

I'm real bullish on electrification of everything, but the necessary service upgrades for me to get a level 2 charger on my property would cost on the order of $5-10k.

Edit: typo corrected, I said level 3 previously

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#193
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that electrification of fossil fuel applications is going to significantly increase the demand on our grid. So it’s not enough to get to parity in renewables, but we have to go far beyond our current capacity in order to accommodate a world in which almost every car is electric (whether electric hybrid or green hydrogen) and almost every home uses electric rather than natural gas for heating (not to me…

I'm real bullish on electrification of everything, but the necessary service upgrades for me to get a level 2 charger on my property would cost on the order of $5-10k. Edit: typo corrected, I said level 3 previously

I'm honestly curious as to why you would need anything more than a Level 2 charger at home.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#194
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transmission losses would eat any benefit, unfortunately. Of course, the author didn't model this at all. This is the problem with 99% of "actually we could totally rip out our entire infrastructure right now" posts - it's usually justified with crappy modeling that falls apart under slightly more scrutinizing consideration. Solar-only with low storage overhead might become more viable if we get room-temperature supe…

I see a lot of cynicism around renewable energy and electric cars and I frankly don't get it. The typical cynical approach is to point out one potential problem, and dismiss the entire solution as if it was worthless, which is obviously false. As others have pointed out, there are now HVDC lines that can go over thousands of kilometers (transcontinental scale!) with reasonable losses. There's no reason to believe tha…

> I see a lot of cynicism around renewable energy and electric cars and I frankly don't get it

So far, we have never globally replaced fossil fuels with renewable energy, only supplemented their usage (meaning you can't point to a single drop of oil that is designated to never be extracted due to the creation of renewables).

The energy required to build an electric car is massive and results in a lot of CO2 production and takes a fairly long time to balance out.

Here's the really important part: despite lots of progress in electric cars and more importantly tremendous (seriously very impressive) growth in renewables CO2 in the atmosphere is not only not decreasing, it is accelerating.

Ultimately massive renewables infrastructure projects and large scale adoption of electric vehicles are capitalist friendly ways of deluding yourself into thinking you're making change while actively making things much worse.

The only surefire way to slow climate change is degrowth but this is literally a forbidden topic. Most of the comments mentioning this on HN or anywhere else on the web are immediately downvoted into oblivion. Even though we know for a fact that economic contraction leads to decreased fossil fuel consumption and have no evidence that on a system level increased renewables reduces CO2.

And it's not just that capitalists don't like it, but nobody really wants to seriously consider degrowth. But here's the rub: climate change will bring massive degrowth either way, and in a much worse way.

The cynicism is because the optimism around renewables allows people to pretend the problem isn't getting worse, and silences any discussion about hard but real solutions.

It doesn't matter much either way, we've chosen violence and are going to play this out the hard way. If you want to pretend it's otherwise, I've given up on bothering to convince other people awhile ago. Have fun in your fantasy and let me know when the rate of atmospheric CO2 starts to even stop accelerating (forget actually dropping).

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#195
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that electrification of fossil fuel applications is going to significantly increase the demand on our grid. So it’s not enough to get to parity in renewables, but we have to go far beyond our current capacity in order to accommodate a world in which almost every car is electric (whether electric hybrid or green hydrogen) and almost every home uses electric rather than natural gas for heating (not to me…

I'm real bullish on electrification of everything, but the necessary service upgrades for me to get a level 2 charger on my property would cost on the order of $5-10k. Edit: typo corrected, I said level 3 previously

fyi the inflation reduction act will cut a good chunk of that for you (assuming you're in the US)

> The Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit expired at the end of 2021, but the Inflation Reduction Act gave it life again by extending its application through 2032. For homeowners, the credit is worth 30% of the costs of "qualified alternative fuel vehicle refueling property" installed in the home, up to $1,000.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California, on most days, is generating slightly less power from solar (~10GW) than all of Australia from coal (per https://electricitymap.org ). Texas has over 130GW of renewables in ERCOT’s interconnect queue. There are challenges to solve for, certainly, but broad strokes the decarbonization roadmap is well defined and within reach. Velocity is a function of capital and technology investment. Edit: @usefulcat http…

> Texas has over 130GW of renewables in ERCOT’s interconnect queue I'm curious to know where you got the 130 GW figure? Texas consumption rarely exceeds 80 GW, even in summer, so 130 seems like a lot. https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards/supplyanddemand (Note: the Y axis in the above chart is megawatts)

I just found a dashboard for the ERCOT interconnect queue. It looks like the previous person understated the amount in the queue if anything.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjM0YjNjZWQtM2U3ZS00Z...

Page 4 shows nearly 200 GW just for solar and wind, and a total of 275 GW.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#197
post #195
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm real bullish on electrification of everything, but the necessary service upgrades for me to get a level 2 charger on my property would cost on the order of $5-10k. Edit: typo corrected, I said level 3 previously

fyi the inflation reduction act will cut a good chunk of that for you (assuming you're in the US) > The Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit expired at the end of 2021, but the Inflation Reduction Act gave it life again by extending its application through 2032. For homeowners, the credit is worth 30% of the costs of "qualified alternative fuel vehicle refueling property" installed in the home, up to $1,000.

forgot to cite it, it's from https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/605069/inflation-reduction-a...

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#198

Meanwhile in the US, we have states allowing counties to ban solar and wind energy production specifically on privately owned and industrially zoned land. I hope Australia can push through the fossil fuel lobby as they start to fight harder. https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/08/23/nine-ohio-counties...

It's odd that the party that claims to be in favor of a free market is passing laws that actively restrict the free market.

As far as I can tell, claims of principle are meaningless with some folks. The only unifying idea is a thirst for power.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it also creates another problem - solar generation drop off very quickly when the sun is obscured. going from 100% to 10% or 20% in many cases. Where doe the power come from during these swings? What generation source can ramp up and down at that speed?

Synchronous condensers or smart batteries. Australia has deployed a lot of the former to deal with this problem at solar farms.

Australia uses synchronous condensers and batteries for frequency regulation, not energy delivery.

Re: A near 100% renewables grid is well within reach, and with little storage

#200
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what is different about this new study. It uses real time supply/demand figures instead of annualized averages. It meets 98.8% of demand with renewables and fills in with fossil power the rest of the time. To quote from the article: Key results from the 52 weeks of simulations are summarised as follows: - Renewables met 98.8% of demand over the year, with the remaining 1.2% met by ‘Other’ (fossils) - ‘Other’ g…

> 82% of demand was directly powered by wind and solar without having to pass through storage or be curtailed. This is amazing. As an EE I wonder about transportation losses, but wind and solar should be pretty easy to decentralize, so maybe this is a non-issue. Wind might be a little harder to decentralize, but I don't know how the regional differences are in Australia. I'd suspect the coasts (or even offshore) woul…

Transportation is definitely one of the main issues. One of the reasons a place like Australia can manage so well in a simulation like this, is the huge size (combined with a generally very sunny interior). On a given day, a very large percentage of total power demand may have to be transported from one end of the continent to another.

For other, smaller countries (like any European one except Russia), you also face political risk, like we're seeing currently with Russian natural gas. When relying on long distance transport of electricity to keep the grid stable, one or two bad actors may tear down the stability for everyone.

Perhaps a smaller issue, but I would not be surprised if total transportation loss would be 10-20% if not higher, when counting both transmission lines, transformers, storage and similar.

If the price of storage comes down enough, it might be a better source of stability, rather than relying on there being wind "somewhere".

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