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Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

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Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#191

Post by specialist »

mgl wrote: post #82

This is likely the peak for facebook, the website. But it may not be a peak for facebook, the company - it is time for a new product. Facebook successfully digested any vital competition in the social media market, the big question is whether they (still) have the innovation gene in their DNA. Alternatively, they could keep acquiring any new emerging social apps like BeReal, especially targeting the youngest people,…

> ...whether they (still) have the innovation gene in their DNA.

I attribute many (most?) of Facebook's prior successful pivots to having better intel on emerging products and segments. By using stuff like a VPN product (Onavo?) to surveil their users.

How's Facebook going to get that kind of intel now?

What's informing Zuck's pivot into VR? Hunches? Reading back issues of Wired and Mondo 2000?

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#192

Post by giantrobot »

threeseed wrote: post #85
giantrobot wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they can make a massive success of the project, they will easily be the new Apple. In what way? If Facebook wanted to replace the iPhone with some "metaverse" device they would need to be able to build a device way more advanced than their current offerings at a price point equal to or less than the iPhone. That means they would need to make up for thousands of person years of engineering, manufacturing, and ope…

Might want to watch this as it’s quite clear Meta knows exactly what’s required to make the Metaverse a reality. And if they achieve it then it will be a game changer as big as the internet or smart phone. https://youtu.be/2zHDkdkqd1I

The word "if" is going to throw a disc with all the heavy lifting it is doing in that statement.

If Facebook can solve all these huge technical hurdles they need to do so in an affordable device. Then they need to develop the operations capacity to actually build and support them. Then they need to make a compelling experience that normal users would actually want.

Facebook does not have a history of executing on those things. They also don't look like they're making any moves to be able to execute on those things.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#193

Post by threeseed »

giantrobot wrote: post #192
threeseed wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Might want to watch this as it’s quite clear Meta knows exactly what’s required to make the Metaverse a reality. And if they achieve it then it will be a game changer as big as the internet or smart phone. https://youtu.be/2zHDkdkqd1I

The word "if" is going to throw a disc with all the heavy lifting it is doing in that statement. If Facebook can solve all these huge technical hurdles they need to do so in an affordable device. Then they need to develop the operations capacity to actually build and support them. Then they need to make a compelling experience that normal users would actually want. Facebook does not have a history of executing on tho…

As of last year Quest 2 was outselling the Xbox.

So clearly Meta does know to ship a popular device at scale.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#194

Post by giantrobot »

threeseed wrote: post #193
giantrobot wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The word "if" is going to throw a disc with all the heavy lifting it is doing in that statement. If Facebook can solve all these huge technical hurdles they need to do so in an affordable device. Then they need to develop the operations capacity to actually build and support them. Then they need to make a compelling experience that normal users would actually want. Facebook does not have a history of executing on tho…

As of last year Quest 2 was outselling the Xbox. So clearly Meta does know to ship a popular device at scale.

The best numbers I can find for the Quest 2 are five million sold last year with 4 million recalled. The current XBox is estimated to have sold around 13 million units. Even if the Quest's sales have kept pace this year so has the XBox. So your claim sounds suspect.

You'll also note 5 million is a twentieth of Apple's iPhone sales. So even if Facebook solves all of their other problems they have to ramp up production 2000% to "replace" Apple.

That is a heavy fucking lift from where they are right now. When the iPhone was released it did what dumb phones did and then some. It's killer apps were the media playback and the Internet. Facebook has yet to demonstrate a killer app for their VR.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#195

Post by FullStackAda »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #63
pclmulqdq wrote: post #3

Lower revenue than Q2 of 2021 and higher expenses. They're on track to have significantly lower net income this year than last year. Au revoir, Facebook.

They’ve deeply embedded themselves into my life because of Whatsapp. Life and work are nearly impossible here without Whatsapp.

EU is pushing for interoperability of messengers apps, so there is a potential of disruption in this area. I am not saying that Whatsapp is toast, I just assume if interoperability is implemented, some companies would be highly motivated to bite into Meta's user base, right when Meta would have to think about some unsexy Whatsapp monetization.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#196

Post by FullStackAda »

deltree7 wrote: post #108
threeseed wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Might want to watch this as it’s quite clear Meta knows exactly what’s required to make the Metaverse a reality. And if they achieve it then it will be a game changer as big as the internet or smart phone. https://youtu.be/2zHDkdkqd1I

Bingo! I'm always astonished by the amount of cluelessness displayed by HN crowd -- supposedly at the cutting edge of things. Like all other platforms, about 5% of the posters at HN provide extremely valuable content. The rest just parrot current popular pitchfork (anti-capitalism, anti-corporate, anti-advertisments -- stuff that I can get from TikTok in a more entertaining format).

And yet you're reading HN?

It's not an anti-capitalism stance to call Metaverse idea for what it is - trying to sell an elephant. Capitalism is not about going all in on the craziest ideas ever.

What is their bet anyway? What users' need are they trying to address or create?

Is this a new and better video game platform? Even if they are successful, VG are still very niche, especially compared to their social network user base.

Is this a new way to consume content? Sounds a bit fussy to me to have an extra device or two just so you cannot turn away when they run ads. People still are not that eager to put on 3D glasses to watch a movie. Are they betting that in the nearest future the reality is going to suck so bad that people would want to escape it? That's just bleak. What else? Realistic porn? Virtual learning? That's peanuts.

Is this going to be augmented reality instead? Some kind of wearable device? We already played with google glass, did not catch on. Plus regulation in many countries already caught up, so you cannot just wear video recording device whenever for example.

Who are the end users? Who has hours of time to consume uninterruptedly whatever content they can provide in their Metaverse? Certainly not the people who has money to spend.

In the end it's an adversarial design to capture all users' attention for prolonged periods of time, the pay off for the user has to be astronomical.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#197

Post by SilverBirch »

fleddr wrote: post #69

As usual, people making a fool out of themselves by confusing "Facebook is no longer cool" with actual value. Half the adults on this planet use a Meta product DAILY, and they added some 3% to it in an incredibly difficult environment. The only interesting thing in the results are the lower ad prices.

I think you're taking this too much at face value. Facebook is no longer cool, sure. But Meta platforms have basically peaked, they aren't adding significant numbers of users, and they're going to struggle to monetize those users due to a number of headwinds - decreased ad spend due to the economic environment, the changes made on iOS, a change app-mix to less monetizable apps (it's harder to monetize Whatsapp vs Instagram), and the fact that they're flat to down in the markets that actually have money (US, Canada, Europe).

Meanwhile, their costs are through the roof, they're spending billions on a market segment that may not exist and the executive leadership at the company isn't focused on the core business.

Meta just running their social media business would be a good dividend stock. They probably are transitioning away from growth to a mature company and can take a lot of profits off the table. But "Meta we're going to chase another home run" is both not a growth but also a bad mature stock...

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#198

Post by FullStackAda »

alangibson wrote: post #45

On the metaverse question: does anyone seriously believe Facebook can innovate, let alone build a new industry?

I don't think that Metaverse can be implemented by anyone in the industry at the moment.

People consume content either in small chunks or on the background. Sure, teenagers and gamers are different, but the investment one has to make to build Metaverse cannot pay off with just this subset of users.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#199

Post by rightbyte »

potatolicious wrote: post #153
redwood wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think another part of it is actually related to how you retain people, the more people you have the more they want to feel they can advance which is made easier by giving more and more people chances to build teams and from there to expand it to ever more specific niches

Agreed. I think there a few key observations I've developed working in BigTech for many years now, that I don't think are necessarily obvious from the outside: - You retain engineers by giving them money/stock, and by giving them a well-defined system towards advancing within the company. Typically in BigTech advancement into the senior ranks is defined largely by ability to lead major efforts that require significan…

Sounds very unsubstainable. The amount of new staff is just insane. It has to be chaos on the inside and tens of thousands walking around without anything to do.

Re: Meta Reports Second Quarter 2022 Results

#200

Post by rightbyte »

mhio wrote: post #140
antoniuschan99 wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thinking they had an aggressive hiring for metaverse

Had a quick check of each q2 report, no figures in 2016 2017 20,658 43% yoy 2018 30,275 47% 2019 39,651 31% 2020 52,534 32% 2021 63,404 21%

I wonder how hireing sprees like this effect market wages for programmers?

There are about 65000 CS students getting a diploma each year in the US. I wonder how many of FB employees are SWEs.

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