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Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

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Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#191

Post by namecheapTA »

woodruffw wrote: post #151
pandaman wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can see how it can be confusing: you argue that transit is safe insisting that any crime happening around the transit use is irrelevant. You get mugged walking out of the station because that's where criminals expect solid foot traffic? Not transit fault, even though there is no way to avoid this situation while using transit. On the other hand, convenience stores on gas stations, where most crime is happening agai…

That's up to you. I've laid out the numbers; statistically speaking, public transit is safer on both axes of accidents and crime. Including adjacent areas of society makes no sense unless we do the same for alternate modes of transportation, at which point the trend continues.

It's not about pure safety numbers. It's about my control of the situation. Once I step onto a train, I'm locked in (literally).

In my car I have a lot of control. Heck, I don't get into drive through fast food lines in sketchy areas because I don't like the idea of not being able to go forwards or backwards if a criminal type walks up to my car.

I ride motorcycles. Very dangerous. But I feel safe because I ride with my eyes open. In 20 years, I've had maybe 1 close call. While most riders I know have a crash in their first year.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#192

Post by woodruffw »

namecheapTA wrote: post #190
woodruffw wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One in 20 violent crimes overall happen in either gas stations or convenience stores[1], so there would have to be a lot of public transport muggings to compensate for that! [1]: https://cspdailynews.com/company-news/c-stores-are-4th-most-...

Once again this is a bit misleading. Sure there are crimes at gas stations. I don't stop at those sketchy looking inner city gas stations. Also, most crimes are against the employees of the stations. And finally, there are a lot of crimes at gas stations, but there are probably 50+ million people visiting the stations daily. Per interaction, they're pretty safe especially if you stick to safe looking ones. It falls b…

And so you see, it's only the dangerous gas stations where the danger is. Ho hum!

"Inner city gas stations" are where people are, because they're in cities, where the people are. Nobody is claiming that they aren't safe on a per interaction basis: the observation is that, if we're including arbitrary areas around all public transportation, then we ought to be doing the same for automobiles.

> It falls back to exactly what I said. I know how not to get killed on the roads, and I know how not to get attacked at a gas stations.

No: you think you know how not to get killed. You might be a great driver, but the drunk guy next to you doesn't care. The guy who runs through a light because it's worked every other time for the last 20 years on his commute doesn't care. The guy who's checking his text messages in the car behind you doesn't care. The sheer number of deaths on America's roads do not substantiate the claim that you can excel your way into safety.

If you look elsewhere in this discussion, you'll see that fewer than 300 people die in total each year on US public transport. That's all modes of death, not just crime or negligence. Nobody likes being locked on a train with someone in a mental health crisis, but the statistics simply do not bear out a disproportionate risk to your life or safety.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#193

Post by woodruffw »

namecheapTA wrote: post #191
woodruffw wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's up to you. I've laid out the numbers; statistically speaking, public transit is safer on both axes of accidents and crime. Including adjacent areas of society makes no sense unless we do the same for alternate modes of transportation, at which point the trend continues.

It's not about pure safety numbers. It's about my control of the situation. Once I step onto a train, I'm locked in (literally). In my car I have a lot of control. Heck, I don't get into drive through fast food lines in sketchy areas because I don't like the idea of not being able to go forwards or backwards if a criminal type walks up to my car. I ride motorcycles. Very dangerous. But I feel safe because I ride with…

In other words: you feel safe. And that's fine; I'm glad you do. But I like feeling safe because the statistics bear it out.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#194

Post by Schroedingersat »

ricardobeat wrote: post #165
Schroedingersat wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the pilot turns on autopilot and looks away for 60 seconds he's using it as intended. This is what autopilot means. Cruise control is not autopilot. The only way your comment would make sense would be if the typical environment for a car were a flat plane of asphalt 100s of km across with all other cars having centrally planned routes that were guaranteed by a third party not to intersect and drivers were trained…

If the pilot turns on AP, looks away, and then 30s later crashes into a small aircraft that didn't have their transponder on, is he relived of any responsibility? I don't think so, and am pretty sure there has to be a pilot in the cockpit/controls at all times even while AP is on.

The time-scale in which a tesla driver must react to it failing is 10s or so to under a second, not 30s.

If this happened anywhere that policy and law said it was okay to use autopilot then you would see changes in the policy, and fault laid on air traffic control at minimum, and then the scope in which autopilot could be used would be massively restricted.

If boeing had advertised the feature for use at low altitude in congested airspace and written the training with that in mind then most likely someone at boeing would be criminally at fault.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#195

Post by namecheapTA »

woodruffw wrote: post #193
namecheapTA wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not about pure safety numbers. It's about my control of the situation. Once I step onto a train, I'm locked in (literally). In my car I have a lot of control. Heck, I don't get into drive through fast food lines in sketchy areas because I don't like the idea of not being able to go forwards or backwards if a criminal type walks up to my car. I ride motorcycles. Very dangerous. But I feel safe because I ride with…

In other words: you feel safe. And that's fine; I'm glad you do. But I like feeling safe because the statistics bear it out.

And that's how you end up being an unlucky victim. "hope is not a strategy"

And on public transit, basically all you have is hope.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#196

Post by namecheapTA »

woodruffw wrote: post #192
namecheapTA wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once again this is a bit misleading. Sure there are crimes at gas stations. I don't stop at those sketchy looking inner city gas stations. Also, most crimes are against the employees of the stations. And finally, there are a lot of crimes at gas stations, but there are probably 50+ million people visiting the stations daily. Per interaction, they're pretty safe especially if you stick to safe looking ones. It falls b…

And so you see, it's only the dangerous gas stations where the danger is. Ho hum! "Inner city gas stations" are where people are, because they're in cities, where the people are. Nobody is claiming that they aren't safe on a per interaction basis: the observation is that, if we're including arbitrary areas around all public transportation, then we ought to be doing the same for automobiles. > It falls back to exactly…

As a motorcycle rider, I actually do take care to not have either of your examples happen to me, even when Im in a car.

Beyond that, there is nothing you can say to me to get me to take BART to save $2. Even if Bart was free, I still wouldn't take it.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#197

Post by woodruffw »

namecheapTA wrote: post #195
woodruffw wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In other words: you feel safe. And that's fine; I'm glad you do. But I like feeling safe because the statistics bear it out.

And that's how you end up being an unlucky victim. "hope is not a strategy" And on public transit, basically all you have is hope.

Hope, and numbers! A good combination, in my book.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#198

Post by ideamotor »

lawrenceyan wrote: post #189
ideamotor wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My ivory tower? You are definitely going to have to be a lot more specific.

> But this takes policy change, and engineers not only cannot independently make that fix in a democracy; they think they know better than democracy because they know how to program a car in a simulated road in abstraction. That came off as abrasive, I apologize. I think the point I'm trying to make is that instead of denigrating engineers trying their best to solve problems, which in my opinion, is largely negative…

I agree insofar that the engineering solutions are not designed to diminish commons or otherwise add to the problem. Also, I find my criticism analogous to yours in that my other main point is how engineers promote their solutions as alternatives to a “broken” system, and this pessimism is negative sum thinking which is highly destructive politically. Finally, I’m an engineer who works on these problems in ways that meet these criteria; not an academic or policy maker.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#199

Post by skinnymuch »

woodruffw wrote: post #197
namecheapTA wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that's how you end up being an unlucky victim. "hope is not a strategy" And on public transit, basically all you have is hope.

Hope, and numbers! A good combination, in my book.

Great writing and breakdowns in this back and forth. Numbers don’t lie.

Re: Tesla on autopilot rear ends motorcycle on freeway, killing rider

#200

Post by _hcuq »

mwint wrote: post #81
_hcuq wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So…… 25 sq miles. Let’s assume a 5 mile x 5 mile grid. Let’s put a bus route every half mile. That’s 20 bus routes. Let’s run a bus on each route every 15 minutes…. The buses run at an average speed of say 20 mph. So each bus takes 20 minutes to traverse the route in one direction. You would need 2 buses per route. That’s 40 buses. Let’s say it costs $100 per hour to run the bus. (Googled it). So that’s $4000/hr to r…

Where'd this $5000/car(/yr?) number come from? Total cost of ownership for a car is far less than that. You can only really get to $5k/year through very high depreciation, and people buying those kinds of cars won't be riding your busses anyway. Also, $100/hr to run a bus is probably a fine operating cost number, but you do have to buy the bus (capitalized cost) and take the depreciation hit just like cars.

The total cost of ownership includes gasoline, repairs, insurance, road tax as well as depreciation. The $100 per hour includes the cost of buying the bus.
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