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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#191

Post by dirkg »

rootusrootus wrote: post #112
dreamcompiler wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber bet the company on robotaxis and lost. Tesla is still building very good cars that happen to not be able to drive themselves. Just like every other car. If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money.

> If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money. They may want to think about that strategy soon. Model 3 is starting to seem dated (not to mention Model S, which is ten years old). There are very competitive alternatives on the market now that have strengths where Tesla is weak, and which are not especially weak in the areas Tesla is strong.

Model 3 is still the best electric car for most people. Its just too expensive now but so are others. No one else has a battery thats as efficient, the charging network, convenience features like key card, integrated navigation (although CarPlay/Android Auto are good too), the handling is much sportier, they hold their resale value, and no dealerships.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#192

Post by Robotbeat »

Twirrim wrote: post #83
function_seven wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars. Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera le…

> Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera lens). Or lane markings that are more than just reflective paint, but can be sensed via RF. Rules around temporary construction that dictate the manner of signage and cone placement that the robot cars can understand. The cones might…

This is, of course, something that regular old meat intelligence is susceptible to as well. Remove stop signs, and you’ll cause accidents.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#193

Post by JaimeThompson »

pm90 wrote: post #171
8jef wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But for people, in the same way as for parcels, power, cable, fiber-optic, there's the last mile problem. Europe has almost solved it with high speed trains and efficient city transit. Then, it solves nothing for all those folks living in rural areas and having to drive f-150s.

> Then, it solves nothing for all those folks living in rural areas and having to drive f-150s. Fortunately thats not a lot of people. When electricity was being rolled out, Westinghouse and Edison didn’t bellyache about not being able to provide electricity to rural areas. They electrified all the cities. Rural areas will just never be able to pay for modern infrastructure. And… thats ok, its not a lot of people.

Perhaps the urban areas should grow their own food?

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#194

Post by ShamelessC »

yalogin wrote: post #183

We haven’t seen Musk’s usual “full self driving is coming Xth of next month” tweet in a while now. I really hope it’s Andrej convince my him to stop, if so that is a great win in my book. After his leaving musk may feel the need to sell his company again to show everything is fine. I will not be surprised to see that tweet again in the next few months.

Last time he said it was on Lex Fridman about 6 months ago.

https://youtu.be/DxREm3s1scA

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#195

Post by dirkg »

lcnmrn wrote: post #157
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

The only wait to solve it is to have smart roads. Basically, moving the problem domain from the car to the street.

how is that any different from geofencing. The goal of an AV should be a car that can drive in any country/road. Not just fancy smart roads in western countries

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#196

Post by alasdair_ »

zmmmmm wrote: post #91
Twirrim wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera lens). Or lane markings that are more than just reflective paint, but can be sensed via RF. Rules around temporary construction that dictate the manner of signage and cone placement that the robot cars can understand. The cones might…

> any of those could be forged / faked without some kind of way of securely validating the message Any reason routine crypto methods would not solve this? Seems like one of the easier parts to me.

Who controls the signing keys and the whole signing process? What about key revocation if someone steals the key? Will a municipality in Texas really be willing to not be allowed to create a new stoplight without approval from the federal agency in charge of the keys? What’s to stop someone stealing a “real” stoplight from bumfuck nowhere and putting it in the middle of the 101 at rush hour? What about replay attacks? What about signal jamming? Etc. etc.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#197

Post by iainmerrick »

rsynnott wrote: post #164
caymanjim wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clearly you live in a large city and find everything you want there.

This is a bit of an oddity of US urban planning. The US has maybe 10 big to very big cities, where people can get around on foot, and then a host of what are called cities in the US but are essentially just collections of shopping centres, office parks, industrial estates, vaguely near each other. It doesn't work like that in most countries; small cities and towns are navigable on foot and public transport.

Public transport often means buses, though, so self-driving AI is still very relevant there.

If you could replace double-decker buses that arrive every 15–30 minutes with self-driving minibuses that arrive every 3–5 minutes, that would be great! (for everyone except the bus drivers who lose their jobs)

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#198

Post by matt-attack »

naijaboiler wrote: post #68
dmd wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4. Need to understand the cop who is directing people into lanes by jutting his chin subtly in different directions when you make eye contact with him 5. Need to understand that occluded objects have not vanished from the universe never to be seen again

6. Need to reasonably predict what that human that just made eye contact with you would likely do next, and how that's different from what he might do when he doesn’t make eye contact with you. And all of that differs if you're in NYC or SF or small town, Indiana

7. Need to constantly read other drivers' body language (or "car language"?) and infer what their intensions are. I can constantly tell what a driver is literally thinking, by picking up on their subtle motions. Drifting over slightly (they're looking to change lanes but haven't yet turned on their blinker), they're slow to respond to green lights, or acceleration of forward traffic (e.g. they're on the phone, texting, etc.) I even routinely look at the eyes of the driver in front of me by looking in their rear-view mirror (yes this entirely possible and actually helpful). Are they looking down at their phone in their lap?

8. Generally understand the true context of things you're seeing. E.g a 4x8 sheet of plywood in the road, a squashed piece of road kill, a large metal pipe, a stopped vehicle, a baby carriage, a dishwasher, a tumbling large slab of styrofoam (all things I've encountered in the last year).

9. Is there a stopped firetruck in front of me (I list this because of the ludicrous fact that a Tesla plowed full-speed into such an obstacle).

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#199

Post by sorry_outta_gas »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #78
rsynnott wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Any reason why everyone seems to be stuck on this problem? Because it's really, really difficult. A lot of AI-ish stuff pretty rapidly gets to the point where it _looks_ quite impressive, but struggles to make the jump to actual feasibility. Like, there were convincing demos of voice recognition in the mid-90s. You could buy software to transcribe voice on your home computer, and people did. And, now, well, it's be…

I'm old enough to remember all the breathless pronouncements in 2015 about how self-driving cars would be everywhere within 5 years. I was skeptical then and I'm still skeptical that it will ever happen outside of some limited range of well known paths that have been pre-determined to be safe - ie we'll have (and we do have) some self driving cars but they'll essentially be on a closed course and will not leave the c…

we're still trying to convert to electric, self dirving is far out there

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#200

Post by pm90 »

xeromal wrote: post #102
cheeselip420 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lol - FSD is a scam, and the reckoning is here.

Idk, does the job for me. Bought it to make my commute easier and it reduces the mental load required to drive in LA traffic.

autopilot != FSD

I agree that autopilot by itself, currently is still pretty valuable. What I worry about (and seems to be confirmed) is that Musk misunderstands what’s possible with the current technology and will make outrageous demands from the team, they will fuck up trying to deliver, then the whole thing will become radioactive.

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