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Russian gas flows to Europe

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Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#191

Post by avar »

jhgb wrote: post #186
avar wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you think that's insurmountable problem there's an easy solution: Pay the French to build and operate them, they already do that for other foreign customers. But look at France's portion of nuclear at the start of the 70s, then the 90s. There's no reason except political will that Germany couldn't do the same.

Perhaps. But saying with 20/20 hindsight of the 2020s that people of the 1970s should have made momentously different decisions for the future of whole national industries for decades to come doesn't feel any less arrogant to me. And that's even assuming that the international situation decades ago was the same as one of today, which it wasn't either.

I'm talking about what should be done today, not crying over the milk spilt in the 70s. I only mentioned the 70s to show how rapidly nuclear could be built to replace other energy sources.

If you look at any longer term projections on the German or EU energy mix in the next 10-30 years, natural gas will still be critical to the energy mix in 2050 if current plans continue. E.g. [1] shows a nice summary of that.

Thus arguments like "efficient building codes" are a red herring. You'll still need to heat your efficiently insulated buildings.

The current plans for doing that are fundamentally still those spearheaded by Germany and others before 2014. If the EU has a serious commitment to longer term sanctions on Russia those plans need to change.

I don't think they will. I think we'll still be buying Russian gas then, and that Germany et al will find some way to sell out Ukraine in the next couple of years. But one can always hope for better.

1. https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-futur...

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#192

Post by waypoint100 »

karpierz wrote: post #112
_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

> 2. we believed our leaders would have the sense to settle with Russia instead of destroying our country. What settlement could Ukraine have with Russia that wouldn't be the end of Ukraine? Russia is demanding that Ukraine allow part of its territory to secede and form "independent" nations, as well as have Ukraine avoid bolstering its ability to protect itself from its neighbours. Do you think those countries won't…

No post body was provided.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#193

Post by elforce002 »

martythemaniak wrote: post #150
_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

I remember you, the day before the war started, you bet me $25 that there would be no war ( https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=martythemaniak&next=... ). I'm glad you're alive and there's obviously no need to settle that bet, but despite everything you've been through, your understanding of the situation has not improved. First, the Americans warned everybody that Russia would attack on Feb 16 and they were wide…

Really? Interesting. Crimea has the largest natural gas deposit in the world, capable of dethroning Russia but you said it wasn't about that? There's a good explanation for why Russia attacked Ukraina and it definitely has to do with Crimea and what Russians perceive as "existential threat" from the West. Sadly, any Russian president would have done what Putin did.

It's not black and white anymore. I'm just a bystander but instead of looking for alternatives to deascalate, people here want Ukraine to "win" the war by any means necessary while they are probably comfortable and well fed at home.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#194

Post by elforce002 »

londons_explore wrote: post #135

Gas to europe isn't the disaster many forsee. If Europe loses gas supplies tomorrow, they would: * Build coal gasification plants (they're fairly simple things, and don't require much special equipment - there are lots that already exist unused and are over 100 years old). Switch about a quarter of towns to 'town gas' rather than natural gas. * cut down heating to only about half of buildings - 'stay with a friend' w…

Interesting. Let's wait 'till winter hits to see if these policies would hold weight against Russia's natural gas.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#195

Post by baybal2 »

_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

No post body was provided.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#196

Post by _xnmw »

martythemaniak wrote: post #150
_xnmw wrote: post #93

It's far too late to change this. You cannot restructure the energy sources of a whole continent in a few months or even years. This could've been fixed if the West had understood and reacted appropriately to the magnitude of the Russian threat about 10 years ago, as foreseen by academics like Stephen Cohen and businessmen like Bill Browder, instead of blindly falling for its own hubristic self-delusion (which contin…

I remember you, the day before the war started, you bet me $25 that there would be no war ( https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=martythemaniak&next=... ). I'm glad you're alive and there's obviously no need to settle that bet, but despite everything you've been through, your understanding of the situation has not improved. First, the Americans warned everybody that Russia would attack on Feb 16 and they were wide…

I sent you an email to settle the bet a few months ago, it probably went to your spam. My email is in my profile.

I was wrong about the war, but I think my understanding of the situation has improved. My mistake was naivety. The naivety is gone now, and I think there is real chance of this war going global if the West keeps fuelling the conflict.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#197

Post by ivan_gammel »

clemensley wrote: post #87
ivan_gammel wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with nuclear is simply that it is irrelevant to the current situation. Won’t add enough energy to the grid, won’t solve the problem of gas demand at all, so it really doesn’t matter if Germany was right or wrong about it.

France is produces 75% of its energy with nuclear. https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profil... A German produces almost twice as much CO2 as a Frenchmen. https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-pe...

So what? I know the numbers too, how does this make them relevant to today’s crisis? It cannot be solved by building more nuclear.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#198

Post by ajsnigrutin »

int_19h wrote: post #190
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an european, and I never understood this... We sent our soldiers to every shithole america decided to "bring democracy to", but now, ukraine has become so important, that we are willing to destroy our own economy and "passively fight" until the "last dead ukranian", to achieve what exactly?

Where would you draw the line? Moldova? Baltic countries? Poland? Everyone for themselves?

Where did we draw the line with USA?

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#199

Post by ivan_gammel »

rhn_mk1 wrote: post #81
ivan_gammel wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with nuclear is simply that it is irrelevant to the current situation. Won’t add enough energy to the grid, won’t solve the problem of gas demand at all, so it really doesn’t matter if Germany was right or wrong about it.

What is "enough"? If any solution has to solve all the problems to be considered at all, you're going to have trouble noticing solutions that chip away at the problem until it's solved.

Enough means sufficient to mitigate the consequences of today’s gas crisis. Other people in this thread explained it well enough.

Re: Russian gas flows to Europe

#200

Post by areyousure »

londons_explore wrote: post #135

Gas to europe isn't the disaster many forsee. If Europe loses gas supplies tomorrow, they would: * Build coal gasification plants (they're fairly simple things, and don't require much special equipment - there are lots that already exist unused and are over 100 years old). Switch about a quarter of towns to 'town gas' rather than natural gas. * cut down heating to only about half of buildings - 'stay with a friend' w…

> isn't the disaster many forsee

With all due respect, I think other people have a different definition of "disaster" if this suggestion

> cut down heating to only about half of buildings - 'stay with a friend' will be policy for the winter months.

isn't a disaster in one of the richest countries in the world.

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