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The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

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Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#191

Post by somewhereoutth »

catchclose8919 wrote: post #172

...the Chinese seem to ignore the global play here: as Covid is endemic in the rest of the world and variants will keep emerging just like they do for common cold (it's basically just a new addition to the bundle of viruses that give the "common cold", but unfortunately with higher mortality since humans haven't been exposed to it), they'll have to isolate themselves from the rest of the world FOREVER! How about all…

Except that Covid is not another common cold virus. Even with vaccination, its effects can be at least as severe as the flu - however it is as contagious as the common cold. We are yet to see what repeated infection brings - but given it is inherently a systemic disease, affecting not just the respiratory system but also the vascular system, and the high prevalence of long Covid, it would not be unreasonable to be concerned about serious damage.

One thing the pandemic has shown, is that in fact the world carried on mostly fine even when people couldn't travel down the road - let alone to another country.

We are changing our ways all the time with each evolution in our society and the environment in which it is situated - something that will become ever more evident as climate change picks up pace.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#192

Post by Retric »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #88
Retric wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plenty of studies showed lockdowns worked. The long term impact on COVID in vaccinated vs unvaccinated populations has eroded how deadly people perceive COVID. Estimates vary especially around secondary effects like hospitals being overcrowded, but cumulatively lockdowns in the US saved in the low millions of lives. “The study found that from March through August 2020, implementing widespread lockdowns and other miti…

I don’t think anyone questions the effectiveness when we literally didn’t know how Covid spread or how to treat it and our hospitals were getting overwhelmed. The question is if they’re a useful endgame tool, after we have testing and treatments and vaccines. Absent the authoritarian measures China is deploying, the answer appears to be no: enough people skirt the rules to permit community spread.

I doubt any researcher believes our response was completely optimal or that US lockdowns would have ever eliminated COVID.

So allowing controlled spread after a successful vaccination campaign while avoiding overwhelming hospitals was the long term strategy if vaccination never hit herd immunity. Yes, we had strings like mask mandates last winter, but public schools where open almost everywhere even as the number of new cases spiked to unprecedented levels. The core difference was the dramatic reduction in hospitalization rates meant the healthcare system could cope with a spike of that magnitude.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#193

Post by ravel-bar-foo »

catchclose8919 wrote: post #172

...the Chinese seem to ignore the global play here: as Covid is endemic in the rest of the world and variants will keep emerging just like they do for common cold (it's basically just a new addition to the bundle of viruses that give the "common cold", but unfortunately with higher mortality since humans haven't been exposed to it), they'll have to isolate themselves from the rest of the world FOREVER! How about all…

There are several possible Chinese goals here, none of which require permanently closed borders:

1. Zero Covid until mRNA vaccines become available to them. Given the infectivity of Omicron and the technical hurdles to mRNA vaccines, they seem unlikely to succeed here.

2. Contain the burn to one city/region at a time so that resources from across the country can be moved in, reducing deaths. Again, seems unlikely to be possible given the infectivity of Omicron, but this goal requires quarantined borders to work.

3. Wait until less lethal variants arise, then select only less lethal variants to allow into the country. Given their failure in keeping out Delta and Omicron, this seems impossible, but it would be a good goal. It is complicated by their lack of effective vaccination, which makes comparing variants hard.

4. Continue Zero Covid as theater to avoid undermining the government's legitimacy, perhaps until the population can become quietly infected. This could be combined with ineffective testing, variant selection, and more effective censorship. (And perhaps border closures need only occur until these systems are in place.)

5. Maintain Zero Covid until the next political meeting. Let the floodgates loose after the current government is stable.

6. Find a way to end Zero Covid which can be blamed on political enemies (domestic or foreign).

Honestly, I am skeptical both that the Chinese have a real long term plan, and that their current border restrictions cannot be maintained forever. While it seems impossible to contain a virus with the infectivity of measles, it is travellers who pay for the border quarantines. The state might enjoy maintaining them merely as a way of reducing contact with subversive foreign ideas.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#194

Post by spookthesunset »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #186
spookthesunset wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think it matters at all if it works or not. It shouldn’t be done. It’s basically a violation of basic human rights. I’d like to think even in our worst of times, we’d respect basic human rights…

But it isn't a violation of basic human rights. It is a community working together to protect itself from an 'invader' - much as we would see in places under attack by less invisible threats.

you have to get all of society to agree to your restrictions. By forcing people via mandates you are violating their human rights. Maybe their risk assessment is different? Maybe they value other things than you? Doesn’t matter, the fact they don’t agree with the restrictions should be respected. We have no right to do it.

See also: this article. What is happening in china right now is just slightly more advanced than what many countries and states did for themselves.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#195

Post by Ericson2314 »

phatfish wrote: post #156
sharken wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this, the Chinese developed vaccine Sinovac is the primary cause of the poor COVID results. It simply doesn't do the job well enough, but good luck trying to make the Chinese leader choose an American product. So the stubbornness of the regime is at fault, but with no limits on terms anymore, i see only bad things for the future of China.

Or a German product ;) Although it seems they have recently gotten round to some extensive testing for an mRNA vaccine. Makes you realise how advanced the Biontech and Moderna vaccines were. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/china-walvax-says-has-m...

Gosh for all sorts of reasons, direct and indirect, I hope this walvax turns out good.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#196

Post by gscott »

memish wrote: post #15

Why are they still pursuing Zero Covid? I know the article includes some speculation on this, but what's the best explanation?

The CCP refuses to import western vaccines. The only option is lock-down because Chinese vaccines are targeted to the original covid-19 strain. There are media reports that China is close to their own mRNA vaccine...

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#197

Post by tootie »

ccbccccbbcccbb wrote: post #138
jaqalopes wrote: post #8

I lived in Shanghai for 5 years and have many friends and business connects there. I would never, ever want to be seen as carrying water for the CCP--the day they abolished term limits for Xi was the day I started planning my exit. I've been following this situation for almost a month now and in one sense it's every bit as bad as it looks. An inadequate and inhumane policy being enforced by an out of touch, or perhap…

> an out of touch, or perhaps even uncaring, government Perhaps even actively malicious, with "perhaps" converging to "definitely".

This shouldn't be a controversial opinion. This is the evolution of a government that never faced any consequences for the Great Leap Forward, the Tiananmen Massacre or their concentration camps in modern Xinjiang. The CCP is actively malicious and very willing to kill it's citizens by the thousands in further an of their political goals.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#198

Post by tootie »

jaqalopes wrote: post #8

I lived in Shanghai for 5 years and have many friends and business connects there. I would never, ever want to be seen as carrying water for the CCP--the day they abolished term limits for Xi was the day I started planning my exit. I've been following this situation for almost a month now and in one sense it's every bit as bad as it looks. An inadequate and inhumane policy being enforced by an out of touch, or perhap…

Not to harp on a secondary point but term limits was your breaking point?

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#199

Post by Ericson2314 »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #191
catchclose8919 wrote: post #172

...the Chinese seem to ignore the global play here: as Covid is endemic in the rest of the world and variants will keep emerging just like they do for common cold (it's basically just a new addition to the bundle of viruses that give the "common cold", but unfortunately with higher mortality since humans haven't been exposed to it), they'll have to isolate themselves from the rest of the world FOREVER! How about all…

Except that Covid is not another common cold virus. Even with vaccination, its effects can be at least as severe as the flu - however it is as contagious as the common cold. We are yet to see what repeated infection brings - but given it is inherently a systemic disease, affecting not just the respiratory system but also the vascular system, and the high prevalence of long Covid, it would not be unreasonable to be co…

That is true so far, but remember that pathogens do not intrinsically have fixed disease characteristics.

The nature of disease is a contextual matter of both the pathogen and host populations. You have to put on your Hegel hat and really think long and hard about the ramifications of that.

Examples:

- mRNA vaccinated population + Omicron is not as bad

- Without being surrounded by lots of ongoing chicken pox to keep the immune system vigilant, one is more likely to get shingles as a non-old person

- Chicken pox and other childhood diseases are much worse if one gets them as an adult. (Shingles is not like getting chicken pox, i.e. the virus for the first time vs reactivated latent virus as an adult.)

- Smallpox and other old world diseases were far worse for new world peoples.

The point here is, what is COVID-19? and what is SARS-CoV-2? are two distinct questions, and both varying greatly over time. Any fixed atomistic characterization is one hell of a leaky abstraction, and will just lead you astray.

Re: The silenced deaths of the Shanghai 2022 lockdown

#200

Post by whimsicalism »

throw_nbvc1234 wrote: post #143
whimsicalism wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Combined with their refusal to use western vaccines. If your only goal is to protect your citizens then there doesn't seem to be a good rational to make that decision; this situation is at least somewhat political. I'm curious if this will keep occurring during the N months it takes for them to develop and test efficacious mRNA vaccines and deliver them to a significant portion of the population.

I don't know enough about this really to comment - I am unsure if they were restricted from using the mRNA vaccine in any way. If they could have acquired supply and didn't, that seems extremely foolish.
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