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Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

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Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#191

Post by mardifoufs »

wolverine876 wrote: post #183
mardifoufs wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes this exactly. I think just looking at a map of ukraine is enough to see that while we are showered by ukrainian success stories to the point where you'd think russia is completely stalled in their invasion... the reality is quite different. Here's a good updated live map with a frontline overlay: https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/09... Keep in mind the war started 3 weeks ago. The american…

Russia itself and military experts around the world expected a Russian victory within a few days. Ukraine of course isn't doing well in absolute terms - they'd be much better off if like the rest of the world they weren't being attacked! But in relative and military terms, they are doing extraordinarily well and have a very good chance to win, maybe without even having to fight a long insurgency. That's incredible gi…

The Battle for Baghdad started when they reached the city 3 weeks in, so my original wasn't 100% correct, but it was only off by a day or two.

Obviously, not every war is the same but the ukrainian army is much stronger than the iraqi army in 2003 (it was in shambles after the 1991 defeat). The American also were much more liberal on their use of airstrikes in urban areas and in general were a lot more competent, so that really makes the comparison fair imo. Obviously I don't know if the russians reached their goals, but they are very far from being exhausted too

The ukrainian army has been doing probably as good of a job as it could have, but what is really surprising me is that Russia did not get another chechen moment either. They are after all a mid tier, barely reorganized army fighting a NATO trained military.

I think there are 2 mildly contradicting conclusions imo: how good nato training and support has been considering how much better the ukrainian army has become compared to 6 years ago... but also that the russian army has improved a lot.

Now for some, this war might really have shattered their impression of the Russian army... but I think that's just because they haven't been paying attention to their abysmal performances in the post-soviet Era. Just compare the rag tag group of completely disorganized soldiers barely able to capture Georgia to what is now an actual fighting force.

That's not saying much, but again I think it's important to highlight how weak and unfit the russian army has been before, though they sure knew how to project an image of supposed soviet-like strength.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#192

Post by ch4s3 »

wolverine876 wrote: post #180
ch4s3 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even supporting the Ukrainian side, it’s clear that they’re taking heavy losses and doubly so on the civilian side. What I think people are correctly surprised by is how well the Ukrainians are utilizing NATO training an arms, and how badly the Russians are performing.

> Even supporting the Ukrainian side, it’s clear that they’re taking heavy losses and doubly so on the civilian side. While that is truly horrible, it does not affect victory. Insurgencies fighting for their homes can absorb enormous losses, invaders cannot. (Anyone fighting or their homes can - look at the damage taken by Japan, Russia, Germany, etc. in WWII - Japan suffered two nuclear bombs and still didn't surren…

> Insurgencies fighting for their homes can absorb enormous losses, invaders cannot.

That’s more or less what I’m saying here.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#193

Post by _dps »

gumby wrote: post #166
c-smile wrote: post #14

The Great Delusion (2020) by prof. John Mearsheimer: https://youtu.be/nZVIaXFN2lU That if someone really wants to understand where we are with all those Libya, Syria, Iraq, ... Ukraine. And how and when this one really started: https://youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc As of Francis Fukuyama predictions... I am Ukrainian by myself. With family spread over West Ukraine and Russia East. Note: Russia is the second country after Ukra…

Mearsheimer's getting a lot of airplay right now, but his analysis is straight out of the 19th century "great game" -- Ukraine is hardly even mentioned. His reasoning is all about the territorial conflicts of the "great powers". In reality Russia is a small, poor, and mostly irrelevant state, mainly getting airtime because it has nukes. Without the nukes it would be taken as seriously as other countries of its econom…

Russia provides something like 20% of global wheat supply, something like 15% of global agricultural supplement input, and something like 12.5% of global oil/gas. They also have an enormous intellectual human capital history — the soviet era physicists and mathematicians were definitely peers to their western counterparts, which is to say nothing of their literature. And finally, they have top-tier homegrown armaments in nuclear, submarines, ICBMs, fighter aircraft, and so on.

I think any metric (e.g. GDP) that reduces this multidimensional situation to "mostly irrelevant" is probably saying more about the metric than about the reality on the ground.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#194

Post by frozencell »

pavlov wrote: post #168
frozencell wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electrocardiography (ECG or EKG). [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heart_rate_monitor

And how do you verify the data? I know you were probably joking, but this is such a common pattern in proposed crypto use cases: 1) Collect some data 2) ?? 3) The blockchain has magically ensured the data is true! Whether it's supply chains or property records or war casualties, crypto does absolutely nothing to prevent people from lying.

Public national crypto identity ledger. Soldiers cannot fake signatures between the ECG or a body implant and the government chain. For most of the casualties, it can provide truth more trustful than government news. How could government or soldiers lie here?

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#195

Post by kingofpandora »

wolverine876 wrote: post #181
gumby wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the end so many targeted munitions are fired that the final result is the same as conventional bombardment.

I'm pretty certain that isn't close to true. Do you have any numbers? Look at the state of Afghan and Iraqi cities - do they look like Dresden?

Mosul and Raqqa sure did.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#196

Post by k4lk »

gumby wrote: post #167

All this discussion of the "endgame" (not just Fukuyama of course, and he at least is worth listening to). But what's the endgame after the endgame? A "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine is a likely possibility. But a Marshall Plan for Russia, who will need it almost as much? Unlikely.

Marshall for their nukes, one can dream.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#197

Post by pphysch »

wolverine876 wrote: post #186
cute_boi wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. If we look at history NATO, it is not a defensive alliance. It is a mostly defensive alliance. Many people here don't even know how the NATO was formed and the promises given to Russia? Russia thinks NATO has expanded beyond control. They don't want to be fully covered by it? Also, there are other strategic interests like Crimea, etc... 2. With this logic NATO doesn't have anything. The power of NATO comes from it…

Russia could sign a massive peace and disarmarment treaty with NATO today, and the European countries would be very happy to reduce their defense budgets and buy oil and gas from Russia. China could do something similar. Nobody has any interest in invading China or Russia. They don't because they have ambitions for power. > If we look at history NATO, it is not a defensive alliance. It is a mostly defensive alliance.…

> Russia could sign a massive peace and disarmarment treaty with NATO today

LOL, are you serious?

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#198

Post by srvmshr »

frozencell wrote: post #194
pavlov wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how do you verify the data? I know you were probably joking, but this is such a common pattern in proposed crypto use cases: 1) Collect some data 2) ?? 3) The blockchain has magically ensured the data is true! Whether it's supply chains or property records or war casualties, crypto does absolutely nothing to prevent people from lying.

Public national crypto identity ledger. Soldiers cannot fake signatures between the ECG or a body implant and the government chain. For most of the casualties, it can provide truth more trustful than government news. How could government or soldiers lie here?

frozencell, just stop it already man. You are making terribly outlandish & insensitive suggestions. Period.

This is a real war. People are getting bombed. No one has the time for monitoring EKG bands. Evacuation is looking bad already. This is not a video game where you monitor player's health stats. Instead of apologizing you are simply doubling down on your crazy remarks.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#199

Post by jdrc »

gumby wrote: post #166
c-smile wrote: post #14

The Great Delusion (2020) by prof. John Mearsheimer: https://youtu.be/nZVIaXFN2lU That if someone really wants to understand where we are with all those Libya, Syria, Iraq, ... Ukraine. And how and when this one really started: https://youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc As of Francis Fukuyama predictions... I am Ukrainian by myself. With family spread over West Ukraine and Russia East. Note: Russia is the second country after Ukra…

Mearsheimer's getting a lot of airplay right now, but his analysis is straight out of the 19th century "great game" -- Ukraine is hardly even mentioned. His reasoning is all about the territorial conflicts of the "great powers". In reality Russia is a small, poor, and mostly irrelevant state, mainly getting airtime because it has nukes. Without the nukes it would be taken as seriously as other countries of its econom…

it s basically the points that Putin made in his speech before the invasion. He s pretty clear about what he wants and people should read that speech

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#200

Post by jdrc »

_dps wrote: post #193
gumby wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mearsheimer's getting a lot of airplay right now, but his analysis is straight out of the 19th century "great game" -- Ukraine is hardly even mentioned. His reasoning is all about the territorial conflicts of the "great powers". In reality Russia is a small, poor, and mostly irrelevant state, mainly getting airtime because it has nukes. Without the nukes it would be taken as seriously as other countries of its econom…

Russia provides something like 20% of global wheat supply, something like 15% of global agricultural supplement input, and something like 12.5% of global oil/gas. They also have an enormous intellectual human capital history — the soviet era physicists and mathematicians were definitely peers to their western counterparts, which is to say nothing of their literature. And finally, they have top-tier homegrown armament…

By that metric greece should be a superpower. They have the world's 1st navy too.

It doesnt work that way. Russia is not irrelevant, but almost-irrelevant. It can be cut off from the global economy without disastrous results

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