Earlier quoted context omitted.
As a manager - I would love it if someone tells me that! This makes my life so much easier! It means, that I will not have to worry about figuring out a good place for you to grow into. It also means that I will not have to worry about finding a replacement for you after you get promoted. Hell, if you tell me that I'll do everything I can to give you a raise asap. Tip: Your manager really, really wants to hear what y…
> Tip: Your manager really, really wants to hear what you really honestly think. As the original commenter noted, the person who was honest about what they really thought was the one laid off when the time came. I won't say it's true for you, but at many organizations "I really want to hear what you honestly think..." has a second clause: "... so that I know who my most valuable 'resources' are." I'm unconvinced that…
It could easily have been that the other person got fired for completely unrelated reasons. It of course could also have been that he did in fact get fired for the reason suspected. In this case the question is again - what does the parent commenter want to optimize for? Is it peace of mind or job stability?
If the situation of having to lie is really bothering them, then perhaps the risk of things going wrong is worth taking? The original commenter is the only person that can decide that.
Also, if they keep lying, what's going to guarantee that they will not get promoted because they accidentally did well enough? Or if, indeed they keep getting not promoted, then will that look bad? Are they in an "up or out" level?