Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine • Hacker News Board

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#191

Post by rmind » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 2:48 PM UTC

atlasunshrugged wrote: post #127

rmind wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You suddently jumped to conclusion that EU could not do much without NATO, but that's just your speculation. - EU is basically the third largest economy in the World. Meanwhile, Russia is about similar size economy as Italy. The combined EU military spending and capability/equipment is well above Russia's. So, in terms of economic and military power, the EU certainly has means, but see below. - Would EU have politica…

Just a note, while Baltic banks are well integrated into the EU (especially after the Danske bank scandal and others before it made integration with Russia politically toxic) the energy grid of the region is still very tied into Russia which is of a critical concern right now (see EU energy prices and issues with the harmonization across the union). I will also have a very negative posture on the EU military spending…

The Baltic States have electricity links with Finland, Sweden (subsea cables) and Poland (with another cable link planned). They are scheduled to pretty much disconnect from the Russian/CIS electricity grid by 2025: https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/baltic-states-and-poland-sign...

I totally agree on German forces being deplorable. Regarding Poland:

- MIM-104 Patriot (air defense): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43574308

- JASSM-ER (cruise missiles): https://defence24.com/70-jassm-er-missiles-for-the-polish-f-...

- F-35 figher jets: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/01/31/poland-...

- M142 HIMARS rocket launchers: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/02/11/poland-...

- M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 tanks: https://www.defensenews.com/land/2021/07/14/polish-defence-m...

.. and there are plenty of smaller scale projects. Poland is arming to teeth.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#192

Post by gritzko » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 2:49 PM UTC

gritzko wrote: post #39

I observe the Ukrainian drama for many years. I strongly suspect that the actual game maybe the opposite of the picture in the media. Ukraine is looted to the bone and the economy is in downward spiral. The beneficiaries of the looting may need a war to write it all off. Meanwhile, if Putin takes Ukraine, he would shoulder a giant pile of debt, plus the responsibility for everything that happens. So the actual game m…

> External Debt in Ukraine increased to 125281 USD Million in the second quarter of 2021 from 123107 USD Million in the first quarter of 2021. source: National Bank of Ukraine

This is comparable to the Soviet Union debt just before the collapse.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#193

Post by refurb » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 2:50 PM UTC

kingkawn wrote: post #153

lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

Vietnam is a better example here. They are continually afraid of Chinese invasion based on nearly a millenia of war preceding the wars with western colonizers. They are at huge disadvantage economically and technologically to China. So every single high school student and college student is trained in guerilla warfare tactics, the entire country is outfitted with secret military installations, and they are ready to r…

Nope.

Military training as a part of the basic high school curriculum went away a whole ago. Vietnamese youth are about making money now.

I don’t disagree the govt is prepared to counter China but they are also investing in a lot of other things.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#194

Post by drran » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 2:51 PM UTC

bitcharmer wrote: post #118

drran wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Budapest Memorandum was, unfortunately, not legally binding. Not justifying the lack of support from the West, but just pointing out an important aspect. Yep, nobody will be sued when Ukraine will nuke RF in violation of Budapest memorandum. So what?

Since when does Ukraine have nukes? They gave it up for empty promises from the west, no?

Since when Ukraine forgot how to make nukes?

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#195

Post by ivan_gammel » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 2:53 PM UTC

drran wrote: post #140

jacquesm wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, let's just hope that that will never be put to the test. As they say: Europe is the battlefield of the world, and Poland is the battlefield of Europe. Russia is as unpredictable as they ever were at the moment and there is a fair chance of this leading to some kind of escalation in the near future.

RF is extremely predictable. Its behavior was well predicted two decades ago. If you are predicting «happy path» only, then anything that deviates from «happy path» will surprise you. Peace time job for military headquarters is to predict «unhappy path» and prepare for it. Russian tactic is well known among former USSR and Eastern Block countries, so it was easy to predict what they will do: Will try to return post-s…

This is just fearmongering based on XIX century thinking. There is no expansion drive by default, however there are couple strategic "red lines", which, when crossed make Russia react aggressively.

1. Hostile military block on the borders (expansion of NATO or any moves that may be treated as towards the expansion or challenging the status quo, as in Ukraine with Crimea).

2. Status of Russian population and Russian language (Georgia in 2008, Ukraine - Donbass, Baltics - low intensity information war).

For the neighboring states they are the keys to their own security: addressing those fears of Russia by diplomatic means, those countries can bring more peace than arming themselves against the invasion.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#196

Post by throw1234651234 » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 2:53 PM UTC

atlasunshrugged wrote: post #157

throw1234651234 wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They gave them up for empty promises from Russia and the West*. I like how you conveniently "forgot" that Russia signed that too. "The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents. The memorandum included security assurances against threats or use of force a…

Just a comment, while the west's lack of support here angers me to no end (Russia I don't blame because how could you trust Russia, especially at that moment when so much was changing) while Ukraine had nukes physically, the actual control capabilities were all in Russia and it would have cost Ukraine a lot (money they didn't have at the time) to convert/maintain them to something usable anyways. Not that this is an…

1. You can absolutely blame Russia. When the nukes were taken away, new launch facilities were dismembered, and TU-160s (Jet strategic bombers, very large ones, which are always a serious threat for people who don't know) were cut OR TRANSFERRED to Russia. Russia knew exactly what it was doing.

2. Hitting Moscow from across the border with a real late 80s ICBM isn't exactly complicated for a country like Ukraine. Especially in this day and age. You drastically overstate the role of centralized C&C here. I want to stress that Ukraine demilitarized MODERN facilities. These aren't 60s hold overs.

The West, of course, lied too. That doesn't absolve Russia however.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#197

Post by scottLobster » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 2:55 PM UTC

underscore_ku wrote: post #143

lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

there are already NATO battalions in Latvia and Lithuania. Albania, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Italy, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain contribute to the Canadian-led battlegroup in Latvia; Belgium, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Norway provide contributions to the German-led battlegroup in Lithuania; France and Iceland contribute to the UK-led battlegroup in Estonia; an…

The question is less about NATO deployments and more the will of NATO leadership to go to war with Russia over its more minor members.

I hate to say it but the Afghanistan withdrawal really showed what happens when Americans stop giving a shit, and they probably don't give that much of a shit about Latvia. Who's going to step into that gap for NATO? Poland recently ran a military exercise simulating a war with Russia that was, in the words of one of the Generals managing it, "worse than 1939". In the simulation the Polish forces held out for less than a week.

Meanwhile attempts for an ex-US EU military organization are little more than vague proposals, in part because the EU started out as a peace project and, frankly, much of Europe isn't used to seriously worrying about its military security (the most notable exceptions being France, the UK, Sweden and Finland, perhaps Greece but they have other issues). Some NATO members ran out of bombs during the freaking Libya campaign. They've been under the US umbrella for more than a generation, in some cases 2 or 3 generations.

Honestly I'm not sure Europe can fight these days. It certainly doesn't want to (and after the 20th century who can blame them?). Sure almost every European nation (Poland included) has some badass special forces. Too bad those won't be enough if Russia decides to act with impunity.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#198

Post by lebuffon » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 2:55 PM UTC

drran wrote: post #140

jacquesm wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, let's just hope that that will never be put to the test. As they say: Europe is the battlefield of the world, and Poland is the battlefield of Europe. Russia is as unpredictable as they ever were at the moment and there is a fair chance of this leading to some kind of escalation in the near future.

RF is extremely predictable. Its behavior was well predicted two decades ago. If you are predicting «happy path» only, then anything that deviates from «happy path» will surprise you. Peace time job for military headquarters is to predict «unhappy path» and prepare for it. Russian tactic is well known among former USSR and Eastern Block countries, so it was easy to predict what they will do: Will try to return post-s…

Where does this obsession with the external come from. Russia has the largest national landmass yet still they look outwards despite the many improvements that they could make internally. It's bizarre to me.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#199

Post by tut-urut-utut » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 2:56 PM UTC

lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

IIRC, it was NATO that signed an agreement that they won't expand to the east when Russia / USSR agreed to withdraw its army from the East Europe.

It was the Russia / USSR that agreed to let Ukraine alone as long as they guarantee human rights and equal status of ethnic Russian / Russian-speaking minority in Ukraine (but majority in East Ukraine and Crimea).

It was the Russia and USA that agreed to restrict usage of the nuclear missiles in Europe.

Guess who broke all those treaties and agreements and now has balls to accuse the opposite party for the current situation.

Even thousands of years ago, Sun Tzu said you should not push your enemy to the wall where his only choice is to fight to death or just die, and NATO is still doing that.

It's not how you de-escalate things, and I hope the reason would overcome, unless we want to experience a nuclear winter.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#200

Post by qwytw » Thu, Dec 16, 2021, 2:57 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #189

bingohbangoh wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO troops being actively stationed in the Baltics is a little different. Ukraine doesn’t have anything that I’m aware of.

20K troops or thereabouts. No tanks, no planes, just some artillery.

That's irrelevant, their purpose is to act as a deterrent. By invading Russia would also directly attack American, British, German, Canadian etc. soldiers which not something their governments can just ignore. Anyway it's not the 1930's, considering the current political and economical environment there is absolutely no rational reason for Russia to invade the Baltic states (unlike eastern Ukraine or Crimea). What would they gain by doing that, 5 million people none of whom want to be a part of Russia and a shitload more sanctions (assuming if it does not escalate into a full-scale war with the west which is again something Russia has nothing to gain from).