Michael burry is correct. The others (e.g talib, paulsen)... Are just hot gas. What distinguishes a bubble from a mania is the high degree of leverage underlying the price support. To date none of the Bitcoin price peaks in the past Exhibited the hallmark sign of a bubble popping, which is 2x faster price drop relative to rate of climb, if anything most of them were 2x slower. However, if you look at the motion that…
> What distinguishes a bubble from a mania is the high degree of leverage underlying the price support. This is not historically correct. Consider the South Sea Bubble, which the cryptocurrency bubble is most similar to.
Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
191–200 of 227 posts
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#192Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think that's a sign of Burry being wrong, it very well could mean he couldn't stay solvent in that position longer than the irrationality of the market.
The "irrationality of the market" is most of the time just blaming everyone else for your own mistake. "I was right, it's just that the whole market keeps being wrong". Denial at its finest.
Not if it eventually crashes, you had given a mechanism, and the mechanism was indeed the causal factor in the eventual crash.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
No it’s a pain in the ass because the technology is antiquated.
No, it is exactly as that guy said. Those transactions are illegal, you can't transfer money across borders without notifying authorities in most countries, and I am pretty sure you aren't notifying them when you do. If bitcoin ever becomes popular as a currency rather than just investment scheme then governments will come down hard on this and all transactions will get banned or made as inconvenient as bank transfer…
Have you been asleep because people are absolutely using crypto to move money internationally and legitimately. Governments, exchanges and banks have been working together to update the rules so that reporting is done correctly, that’s why we have things like KYC. Unless there’s a law that says ‘money must be transferred through banks’, please let me know
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#194Earlier quoted context omitted.
The exact same thing happened with Ethereum (and crypto in general) in 2017. But look how much it's rebounded after that crash. I still don't think it's a good long term investment, but it's been an amazing way for some people to make life-changing money. Sadly, I'm not one of them.
It's a good investment dude. I'm not trying to shill or anything here but Ethereum is literally the "internet" of finance. It democratizes and brings access to basic financial building blocks like we've never before seen in history and truly anything can be built on it. Unironically it's the future of finance. Don't listen to the Luddites and cynics here. Do the research yourself and try it out for yourself and it be…
the problem with crypto is that people see it and treat it as an investment and a commodity, not an actual currency. People horde crypto and don't spend it.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#195Overall, the experts cited in this article make weak points. There are legitimate concerns with crypto (which I would be happy to discuss if anyone wants to have sane dialogue), none of where really covered in depth. > “My view is that bitcoin will ultimately end up going to zero. And I think we are in the final stages right now.” Bitcoin's market value will never go to zero. Let me explain - bitcoin was borne out so…
You're one of the best people to ask, probably:
Direct effects of USA/EUR making private wallets illegal?
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
The "irrationality of the market" is most of the time just blaming everyone else for your own mistake. "I was right, it's just that the whole market keeps being wrong". Denial at its finest.
Not if it eventually crashes, you had given a mechanism, and the mechanism was indeed the causal factor in the eventual crash.
That is true. But most of the time when I see it used, it's "it will eventually crash just wait and see.... wait for it.... wait for it ..."
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#197Earlier quoted context omitted.
People are going to flash their wallet addresses at bars or at business meetings? We already have strong social taboos about flashing bank accounts. The whole point of status good is they convey wealth rather than tactlessly showing a total.
You've never seen where these brags occur? See if this feels familiar: Paris Hilton buys NFT of Hello Kitty! creator's DNA, says "crypto is the future"
Paris Hilton is possibly the world's richest and best known idiot. The flex here is having a news article written about you. Paris Hilton bought an NFT to stay relevant. Not to become relevant.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#198Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm involved in crypto and I really don't care about Tether. Currently, people are coming in with their own USD and willing to buy Bitcoin at a price of 60K. That has nothing to do with Tether. It has everything to do with people willing to pay that price. I don't own Tether, so I really don't care.
That has nothing to do with Tether. It has everything to do with people willing to pay that price. It has everything to do with Tether. Tether is being minted with an illusionary value of $1USD and "loaned" to favored insiders which use it to buy Bitcoin and inflate the price. The fact that Bitcoin trades for $60k is the result of this being done in the past. The reason new investors pay $60k is their expectation it…
Next to my other comment here, let me do a quick calculation then, if you are correct.
BTC = 60K * (0.4 USD + 0.6 USDT)
Now let's say USDT is only backed by USD at 50%, that would make:
BTC = 60K * (0.4 USD + 0.3 USD) -> 0.7 USD, which would put the price of BTC at 42K USD.
I can live with that :D.
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#199Earlier quoted context omitted.
-25% flash crash when there is a minor economic event (if even that). What happens when there is a major 2008 style economic event? What happens when billions in BTC need to be sold in a day because a large entity needs to cover their margin call? Crypto has no floor.
We saw that in March of 2020, didn’t we? It crashed along with everything else.
The crash at the beginning of last year wasn't as dramatic as people think it was. Most of the actual damage was caused by people overreacting to what could happen, which caused a lot of damage itself. (ie. car manufacturers cancelling chip orders because they thought the won't need it).
The real economic crash is still in our future. (For example, when debt protection measures stop and people become homeless or default on their debt)
Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
That has nothing to do with Tether. It has everything to do with people willing to pay that price. It has everything to do with Tether. Tether is being minted with an illusionary value of $1USD and "loaned" to favored insiders which use it to buy Bitcoin and inflate the price. The fact that Bitcoin trades for $60k is the result of this being done in the past. The reason new investors pay $60k is their expectation it…
Next to my other comment here, let me do a quick calculation then, if you are correct. BTC = 60K * (0.4 USD + 0.6 USDT) Now let's say USDT is only backed by USD at 50%, that would make: BTC = 60K * (0.4 USD + 0.3 USD) -> 0.7 USD, which would put the price of BTC at 42K USD. I can live with that :D.
USD being backed at 50% is a fairy fantasy less likely than a pink unicorn coming down to Earth and solving climate warming.
They weren't even backed at 50% a few years ago when their market cap like 10+x smaller in comparison to what is now. 5% is an optimistic estimation for how it it is today.