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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#191

Post by spiderfarmer »

throwaway984393 wrote: post #56
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

I'm picturing a web developer in 2023 wondering why everything is slightly tilted in his DIY house even though he used the poured slab as reference

I was a web developer in 2019 building my own office and it never collapsed even once.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#192

Post by oivey »

kebman wrote: post #176
Aloha wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Notice how that building collapse in Florida is a vanishingly rare event? That's part of why. Also some rent seeking in there. We used to have weak building codes, more buildings fell down.

I get the need to safeguard condominiums and high-rises, but what is that to single or duplex home owners?

Single family homeowners still don’t want to live in collapsing fire traps with railing short enough that their toddler can climb over. The building codes are also different for different building types. Not all hazards in a building will be obviously apparent to a layman.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#193

Post by dageshi »

10GBps wrote: post #6

I don't think prices are "cratering" so much as just returning to normal rather than price gouging. Now if I could just buy a GPU for a normal price...

I don't think it'll ever happen until massive new fab capacity comes online at this point.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#194

Post by Ekaros »

skybrian wrote: post #183
teekert wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the markets are connected? If you have lumber, why sell it on the cheap to Europeans when you can get more from the Americans?

Transportation costs seem high: > It’s difficult to ship lumber overseas cost effectively: lumber is (or was) one of the least expensive materials on the planet. At $300 per 1000 board feet (the average price over the last 25 years), a 20 foot shipping container holds just $4500 worth of material. The cost of transporting a container across the ocean is $1700 dollars or more. https://constructionphysics.substack.com/…

And my understanding is that real shipping rates are currently much higher than the 1700... As are all shipping rates...

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#195

Post by pvarangot »

jdgoesmarching wrote: post #180
kebman wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does the USA, The Land of the Free and The Land of Opportunity, have so much bureaucracy? Look, I know fire codes are important, and you don't want a building to crumble in around you, but... Seems the building codes in the US are unnecessarily strict. Is it power hungry bureaucrats or exploitation from contractors that has lead to it? And how can the people be given more liberty to build the way they want?

Actually the reverse, building codes for most of the US are a joke. We continue to build horribly inefficient and uncomfortable homes because every extra penny is spent on square footage and extra McMansion features. When houses become financial instruments there is no incentive to make houses into good homes, despite building science folks jumping up and down for decades. Houses are complicated systems that need to…

Don't get me started on sound insulation. The condo I rent is two units in four stories and if the room on the fourth floor is playing music at a decent volume you can still hear from the garage. The whole thing is five million dollars. Retrofitting proper sound insulation on the whole building is north of 180k.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#196

Post by TeMPOraL »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #29
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

Common practice in construction industry is to overcommit to too many projects, then raise prices until the most cost-conscious customers drop out. Now you’re only left with the customers willing to pay the highest prices. It’s not really about lumber prices. It’s about finding the highest construction prices that the market will bear. Can’t find the limit until you push so hard that some customers start dropping out…

Ah, another type of market assholery. Price discovery mechanism that's free for the builders, but very expensive for the would-be customers. About as nice as grading on a curve.

I wonder if there's a space for business for an intermediary who would take on multiple builders for your single home, wait for them to do their price discovery dance, and then drop every one of them except for the cheapest one.

Disrupting schedules isn't free for customers either.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#197

Post by headmelted »

spiderfarmer wrote: post #191
throwaway984393 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm picturing a web developer in 2023 wondering why everything is slightly tilted in his DIY house even though he used the poured slab as reference

I was a web developer in 2019 building my own office and it never collapsed even once.

If you were a web developer in 2019 building your own office that never collapsed I have to assume that's only up until the last thing you can remember.

May you rest in peace.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#198

Post by pengaru »

fridif wrote: post #113
tayo42 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

my measly half million dollar worth of stocks "only" grew 30%. There's a significant amount of people do that much better than i did? what am i missing?

I spent 1.1M on a house with my wife of course and am very happy with my purchase. Lots of land and nobody around to tell me what to do.

> with my wife

> nobody around to tell me what to do

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#199

Post by Bombthecat »

ryan93 wrote: post #27
tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

I think people have just increased the fraction of their income they are willing to spend. If people in Austin will spend 50% of income instead of a third prices can go up a lot

Yes, this.

There was a question why people want to move to Munich even though it is the most expensive city in germany.

Answer : because it is a city! Disco, cinema, stuff to do in your free time.

And more and more people are willing to sacrifice 2/3 (or more) of their income just to live in the city. (also part of the first question)

So, i dont see rent going down anytime soon.

And if there will be a recession, even more people are willing to sacrifice everything, just to move to the city.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#200

Post by throwawayffffas »

dageshi wrote: post #193
10GBps wrote: post #6

I don't think prices are "cratering" so much as just returning to normal rather than price gouging. Now if I could just buy a GPU for a normal price...

I don't think it'll ever happen until massive new fab capacity comes online at this point.

I wonder whether etherium finally moving to proof of stake will actually have an impact on gpu prices.
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