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Students flee field as computer 'fad fades' (1987)

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191–200 of 406 posts

Re: Students flee field as computer 'fad fades' (1987)

#191
1987? How could the poor students have known?

Gee, 1987, I was at IBM's Watson lab as a researcher in their effort at the time in artificial intelligence.

So, at the lab we had an ambitious computer services group, and they had for our general use six mainframes, I believe all single processor machines, running the operating system software Virtual Machine/Conversational Monitor System (VM/CMS).

For access from home, I had a PC/XT with some special software to use a standard dial-up land line telephone line to access the mainframes. As I recall, the data rate was about 30 characters per second.

So, the mainframes were likely water cooled. As I recall, the last of the water cooled mainframes had a clock speed of 153 MHz.

In contrast, the last desktop I plugged together has an AMD (American Micro Devices) processor, FX-8350. It has 64 bit addressing and 8 cores. The standard clock speed is 4.0 GHz. To buy the processor, at Amazon I paid their usual price, quantity 1, ~$100. Tiny little thing; came in a tiny little box. The processor has been fine: It is the basis of my startup.

So, let's compare, counting clock ticks:

The 6 mainframes had best I can guess at most in total

6 * 153 = 918

million ticks per second. The AMD has

8 * 4.0 * 1,000 = 32,000

million ticks per second.

Then we can take the ratio

(8 * 4.0 * 1,000) / (6 * 153) = 34.858,387,799,6

Call it 35. Soooo, counting clock ticks my desktop with the $100 processor from the tiny box is 35 times faster than all six of those mainframes combined.

With speculative execution, out of order execution, pipelining, etc., there is on average some number of instructions per clock tick. So, first cut here, and maybe a gift to the IBM mainframes, for the two processors count the average number of instructions per clock tick as the same.

So, this fantastic, we're talking not just world class but unique in civilization class, improvement in price/performance, is much of what enabled Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, AMD, TSMC (Taiwan Semi-Conductor Manufacturing Corporation), smart phones, solid state disks, and essentially all of the Internet.

E.g., for communications data rates for connect from home, now with 1 Gbps Internet versus then, 1987, 300 bps, ..., to the 56 Kbps of V.90 of 1995.

So, how the heck in 1987 was a computer science student or early career person to anticipate and actually believe in this fantastic, all-time unique step up in price/performance of computing and communications along with associated infrastructure?

This progress blows away wood, wheels, stone, copper, iron, steel, steam, electricity, and broadcast radio and TV.

Now, what are we going to do with this suddenly cheap, powerful computing, communications, and infrastructure?

Re: Students flee field as computer 'fad fades' (1987)

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yeah 2001! 6 months and dozens of applications to get a job offer. I would have done 100s of applications had their been that many to apply to. Low points was being rejected from a job maintaining access databases in a small town. Being rejected from another job because I hadn’t suggested manually unrolling a loop as an alternative solution to a problem and I said “oh yeah you could do that I guess” (feedback: bad…

FWIW £18k in 2001 is ~£30k in today's money which is on the upper end of graduate starting salaries even for today

Overall maybe, but certainly not for CS/any engineering. Even if you only count engineering employers.

Re: Students flee field as computer 'fad fades' (1987)

#193
post #49

I don’t hear much about it these days, but circa 2004 when I was going into computer science I had multiple teachers and a guidance counselor warn me that all the jobs would be going to India and tell me I should pursue something else. This seemed to be very much the prevailing wisdom of the time. I pursued it anyway as it was my passion. I was one of five students in my program that had been a huge multi-campus prog…

My parents to this day ask me when I will be getting a *real* job. I make three times what my dad makes in a year.

Re: Students flee field as computer 'fad fades' (1987)

#194
post #49

I don’t hear much about it these days, but circa 2004 when I was going into computer science I had multiple teachers and a guidance counselor warn me that all the jobs would be going to India and tell me I should pursue something else. This seemed to be very much the prevailing wisdom of the time. I pursued it anyway as it was my passion. I was one of five students in my program that had been a huge multi-campus prog…

My father was very strongly against my decision to get into web development (2012) and he echoed this sentiment heavily. I distinctly remember him yelling at me as a teenager; "you'll be living under a bridge in 5 years if you do this! India has this market!". He eventually kicked me out for not listening, forcing me to to borrow money from a friend to pay tuition in my final semester. Needless to say he was complete…

I have a lot of respect for your perseverance, it was the right thing to do. Make your own mistakes, making someone else's is just so... Painful. And it makes you feel weak.

Similarly someone once advised me not to do a Masters in Molecular Biology because the market was screaming for Bachelors (back then in the Netherlands a Bachelor meant working in a production lab or something). I didn't listen and this also turned around in about 3-4 years and I love how my career went (and is going).

I had a similar (but much less intense) situation with my Father in law by the way. He has some experience in "home improvement". I like to read and watch YouTube before starting any activity. So we had a big discussion/argument on how we would re-do our ceilings. In the end I said: I prefer to do it my way and mess it up than to do it yours and regret that. He agreed, we had a fun time working together after that. He learned a thing or two and now he consults me on many things he does around the house.

Re: Students flee field as computer 'fad fades' (1987)

#195
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im especially glad I’m not British - in America my $150k TC out of undergrad was mediocre.

Just an FYI to the Brits on this post - I've found US startups are happy to hire remote engineers from the UK. Might take a little bit of effort but it's surprisingly possible to get a six figure job quickly.

How do they handle things like payroll taxes, benefits and such?

Re: Students flee field as computer 'fad fades' (1987)

#196
That’s when the smart people exited the field. Because they felt that computers will soon stop being fun (that’s what happened in the early nineties indeed). And now we are stuck in this bells-and-whistles industry (software and web). While real engineers and scientists are focused on the fields that matter, like transportation, space exploration, robotics, construction, food production, medicine…

Re: Students flee field as computer 'fad fades' (1987)

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Achually for 10 years nothing exciting happened. Until maybe 1992 when you could install your very own Unix. What was happening in the span 1982-1992 was that everything imaginable was coming out as a peripheral for the IBM PC. It wasn't just stuff like disks and printers and graphics cards. Month after month you'd see something new, and realize "Yeah, I guess you could do that as a computer peripheral", but it wou…

Its crazy to me that a tech forum poster would consider the incredibly innovative years of 1982-1992 as nothing because his preferred OS didn't exist yet. 1982: Commodore 64 1983: Apple //e 1984: Macintosh 1985: Amiga 1986: 386-based PCs 1987: Hypercard and Acorn Archimedes 1988: NeXT cube 1989: 486 released. Deep Thought defeats its first master, WorldWideWeb released 1990: Power Processor, Gopher, EFF founded 1991:…

I would add the AtariST to your list. It could use workstation compilers and had a flat address space, you could port software to it a lot easier than to a pre-386 PC.

Re: Students flee field as computer 'fad fades' (1987)

#198
post #156

I think traditional CS programs could take a page from what I believe is the most successful aspect of coding bootcamps; the inspiration/excitement/desire to learn etc. felt by a graduate in a very short period (weeks/months vs years+). It's not perfect, they are missing many fundamentals, but now the student can appreciate why those are needed and the drive to learn more grows naturally. I think other disciplines co…

Maybe degree programs should start with a bootcamp, then a "real" project using those skills, then start with in-depth CS fundamentals so that students can start to unwrap the things they've learned, why things are done a certain why, explore problems they had with their post-bootcamp project, etc.

Re: Students flee field as computer 'fad fades' (1987)

#199
post #49

I don’t hear much about it these days, but circa 2004 when I was going into computer science I had multiple teachers and a guidance counselor warn me that all the jobs would be going to India and tell me I should pursue something else. This seemed to be very much the prevailing wisdom of the time. I pursued it anyway as it was my passion. I was one of five students in my program that had been a huge multi-campus prog…

My father was very strongly against my decision to get into web development (2012) and he echoed this sentiment heavily. I distinctly remember him yelling at me as a teenager; "you'll be living under a bridge in 5 years if you do this! India has this market!". He eventually kicked me out for not listening, forcing me to to borrow money from a friend to pay tuition in my final semester. Needless to say he was complete…

>He eventually kicked me out for not listening, forcing me to to borrow money from a friend to pay tuition in my final semester.

A real sweet guy...

Re: Students flee field as computer 'fad fades' (1987)

#200
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there’s anything I’ve learned it is that you should always make your own mistakes. Your parent’s mistakes don’t even make sense any more 30-40 years down the line. My father pushed me into EE. I burned 5 years in industry being paid crap and then discovered it was actually a fairly low paying profession in the UK. Ended up supporting a bunch of Sun machines for other EEs which was more fun. So i learned Perl one w…

When offering PhD studentship positions, I have had several cases of people from developing countries who wanted to come work in my group, but didn't, and the reason (from their own accounts) was that their parents wouldn't let them go get their PhD anywhere not in the US. They ended up at groups in the US with much worse scientific output than mine (it's true that well-known US universities wipe the floor with mine…

This. I also had a M.Sc. student work at my company, a brilliant guy from China, he deserved the best Ph.D. Which in my opinion is with a Professor that made his mark, has a secure position (so he is not still in his publish or perish period), enjoys what he does and cares about his Ph.D. students' development. His parents didn't agree, they wanted him to go to the most prestigious lab he could get into. Probably to be worked like a measurement slave for 4 years + the inevitable extension.

I told him to beware, talk to other students and try to gauge the atmosphere in the lab. If you're smart and motivated you'll make it. But will you have fun and be happy? What do you want out of life?

I have friend that made "Associate Professor" at an impressive age. He does make 80 hour weeks and travels 50% of his time. It can be fun and it is an adventure, but is it what you want? This life is pretty incompatible with having a family for example.

Beware of the fact that your parents may define success very differently from you.

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