There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble • Hacker News Board

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#191

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:15 PM UTC

ska wrote: post #144

jayd16 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...but putting that aside... I think the emphasis is more about how there's no other game in town that can compete, not that gambling is new. Interest rates are so low that there isn't a simple/safe…

> isn't a simple/safe investment entity to pull out a reliable 10%. Long run even the stock market only averages about 7%, and that isn't simple or safe - but it beats other asset classes on return. Asking for a risk-free 10% is pretty much a fantasy. One weird thing about the amount of volatility in recent years is that people are simultaneously used to the idea that their "cash savings" earn approximately nothing,…

[deleted]

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#192

Post by c22 » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:16 PM UTC

Ekaros wrote: post #140

c22 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Welding?

Welding is probably bit multi-modal. Traditional stuff isn't likely going away, but already there is already advanced robots for the job. Though it's unlikely they will be entirely AI controlled.

No doubt a lot of "assembly line" welding operations have already become highly automated. This is, however, already the area requiring lesser skilled and more easily replaced workpeople. I was thinking more about on-site and craft-associated welding which I imagine will continue to be highly valued until extremely portable and versatile high-DOF robotic manipulators become commonplace.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#193

Post by Animats » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:16 PM UTC

The NFT thing is interesting. Some things to note:

- It's inherent in NFTs that they are thinly traded. If each thing is unique, there is no overall market price. Price quotes are anecdotal. There are "indexes" which list prices for transactions, but that doesn't mean you can sell at that price.

- Liquidity is very limited. This works like collectables. Try to unload a million dollars worth of Beanie Babies. It may pay off as a way to monetize fame. Taylor Swift, who has a very good understanding of how to monetize followers, may bring it off. Mark Cuban and his basketball team are doing fine with it. If you have fans, this works. If you're just a fan, well, you're the sucker.

- The NFT industry is trying to become like the diamond industry. Diamonds are mostly hype. Diamond manufacturing is working so well that you can buy gemstones on Alibaba. The diamond industry works to get gemstones into "safe hands", that is, one person with some items of jewelry. A hedge fund with a vault full of stones ready to sell, constantly watching prices, destabilizes the market. NFTs are more like the hedge fund case.

- There's a long history of bulk manufacture of collectables. Beanie Babies. Cabbage Patch dolls. Franklin Mint castings. Commemorative plates. Currier and Ives prints from the 19th century. All of which can be purchased on eBay for low, low prices. There are people in eBay still trying to unload Jar Jar Binks merchandise. The stuff produced in quantity does not appreciate in value.

- The NFT bubble may already have popped.[1] Prices, such as they are, are down 70% since February 2021.

- The real reason for NFTs is that, not being commodities, they are not regulated by the CFTC, and not being securities, they are not regulated by the SEC. So unlimited hype is legal.

[1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/05/investing/nft-prices-falling/...

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#194

Post by ameister14 » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:18 PM UTC

danenania wrote: post #148

ameister14 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices... There are a few cases I can think of immediately where this applies - gambling with novices in Blackjack, for example, is not ideal. They'll screw up the flow of cards and can cause your math to go haywire. The same happens with Hold-em or Omaha Poker - you want people to have enough skill to play the game…

That's not the case in poker. If someone thinks a novice player is messing them up somehow with poor play, it means they're not a good player either. A good poker player wants their opponents to play as poorly as possible.

I never liked having true novices, especially in tournaments or when I was running multiple tables at once - it was easier to make notes of play style and predict when people knew how to play at a basic level.

Sure, I'm more likely to beat the person that is going all in with a 2 5 off suit but bad beats are incredibly annoying. Over time, in a sit and go situation I'd beat that player, but online and in tournament play I found that was a hazard. I'll take a consistent bad player over a complete novice any day.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#195

Post by w0de0 » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:19 PM UTC

diamondhandle wrote: post #26

Our job in life is to engage in value creation. When money is decoupled from value creation, your long-term bet is that it will lose its value, as value creation is what actually matters in the “real” world. This is also why “crypto” (the asset class, not technology) is so corrosive, because it makes people who have done approximately nothing to create value in society, but who’ve enjoyed a massive boost in monetary…

> Our job in life is to engage in value creation.

That's grim! It's not my job in life.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#196

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:20 PM UTC

w0de0 wrote: post #195

diamondhandle wrote: post #26

Our job in life is to engage in value creation. When money is decoupled from value creation, your long-term bet is that it will lose its value, as value creation is what actually matters in the “real” world. This is also why “crypto” (the asset class, not technology) is so corrosive, because it makes people who have done approximately nothing to create value in society, but who’ve enjoyed a massive boost in monetary…

> Our job in life is to engage in value creation. That's grim! It's not my job in life.

[deleted]

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#197

Post by CyberDildonics » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:26 PM UTC

jpdus wrote: post #162

diamondhandle wrote: post #26

Our job in life is to engage in value creation. When money is decoupled from value creation, your long-term bet is that it will lose its value, as value creation is what actually matters in the “real” world. This is also why “crypto” (the asset class, not technology) is so corrosive, because it makes people who have done approximately nothing to create value in society, but who’ve enjoyed a massive boost in monetary…

What you call "corrosive" (appreciation of non-value-creating assets) is 1:1 applicable to Real Estate. Compared to the appreciation of worldwide real estate, the market value of crypto is only a drop in the ocean. And countless people got unbelievable rich due to rising prices and "crowding-out" in cities without creating any value for society at all (in the opposite, making life harder for everybody struggling to k…

> And nobody so far managed to explain convincingly, in which ways investments in (existing, residential, not for self-use) real estate creates any value.

Shelter is literally third on the list of human needs after water and food. Make something desirable and people will leave their previous (possibly decent) place behind to move in. I'm not sure how anyone can say real estate doesn't create value just because they are frustrated that some people make money off of real estate.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#198

Post by CyberRabbit » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:26 PM UTC

isoskeles wrote: post #169

the_local_host wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even without capitalism, you have a duty to create value for the people around you I don't think this is true. This is one of these work ethic corollaries that helped build wealthy societies when productivity was proportional to people's effort. But it seems to grow more obsolete by the day.

Do you think that early hunter-gatherers shared their food with people who did not participate in acquiring food? Without capitalism, we could regress to the most primitive version of civilization and still require contribution to the tribe. The alternative is to go off on your own (and at that point, there are no "people around you" to help). Less primitive alternatives, as different political-economic systems, usua…

> Do you think that early hunter-gatherers shared their food with people who did not participate in acquiring food?

Almost certainly, yes. Is altruism missing from your vocabulary?

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#199

Post by teh_infallible » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:28 PM UTC

“ last year the U.S. government pulled 13 million people out of poverty with a few million strokes of the autopens”

I am pretty sure the government forced more people into poverty with the lockdowns. To treat the stimulus checks as some mind of boon when people were forced to close productive businesses seems intellectually dishonest at best.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#200

Post by smogcutter » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 6:31 PM UTC

waprin wrote: post #186

rud7udehev wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the sort of statement that sounds good to idiots and people who've never played poker. Anyone who's made money at casino poker is aware of how much of a hassle retards spasming at the card table can make things even if they're going to lose in the end.

No, totally wrong, it’s the exact opposite. Novices and only novices think “you can’t beat bad players cause they’re unpredictable!” Even your more moderate point you’d rather not have them in the game is totally wrong. In reality, every professional player loves players who do terrible, random things. Variance might go up, but variance is going to be annoying either way. Other players doing dumb things is where your…

Like in chess for example - a kind of player who has more trouble with extreme novices than people their own level is someone who knows how the game “should” be played, but doesn’t actually have the skill to go off-book themselves or punish mistakes when an opponent deviates.

An actually strong player won’t have that problem.