Live data from Hacker News

Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

reuters.com

191–200 of 344 posts

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#191
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's exactly it. There is a tradeoff to be made here with likely deaths on both sides, and the government is choosing much higher numbers of deaths because it looks better for them politically. That's immoral and cowardly. I don't see any way to justify the decision they've made logically.

Except it's not the government, or any politicians for that matter. It is the decision of medical professionals, basically the danish version of FDA decided to stop using Astra Zeneca vaccine. They have that level of power here in Denmark.

That's the problem. They're strongly biased towards the do no harm side of the balance - even when inaction causes much greater harm. It's simply a blind spot for them.

They're the wrong group to make the call here, and the politicians should overrule them.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#192
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Norway has ~10 deaths from Covid in the But only a small minority of the So it's a pretty safe assumption at this point that AZ is a bad option for younger age groups in countries with similar numbers, assuming that other vaccines will soon be available (they will)

Sure, but at the same time 3 is too small a number to have any confidence in that expectation. Looking at the rates from other countries where AZ has been deployed more heavily, it seems like Norway mostly had bad luck, and the rate is fairly small. Though as you say for the younger population the risks with covid are also small and the choice ultimately depends on the infection rate in the country. An interesting qu…

Even New Zealand presumably can't keep its border sealed indefinitely.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#193

This decision seems illogical to many commenters here, but I assume the decision was made by professionals with all the data in front of them. Which then raises the question, why did these professionals make a decision so different than the "obvious" opinion here?

0. It's not like the vaccines get discarded or the factory slows down - every dose that isn't purchased by rich western countries is one that will go elsewhere, possibly saving even more lives.

1. Professionals might have data we don't have - maybe they've used up their stock of AZ but have plenty of other vaccines.

2. They might be making more nuanced calculations. For example, if they've already vaccinated all their high-risk groups, the risk-to-reward trade off for younger groups might be worse.

3. Alternately, they might be being more conservative than you and I. I'm expecting the end of vaccine roll-outs to mean lockdowns and masks end permanently and the entire economy comes out of hibernation, which is a big pay-off. But between the vaccine's less-than-100% success rate, the risk of new variants, people who can't be vaccinated, international travel and so on, they might feel my benefits are too speculative to have a place in their calculations.

4. Healthcare ethics can be a complicated matter, and they've probably spent longer agonising about it than we have. After all, you and I are talking about pulling a hypothetical lever - they're the ones who'll actually be pulling it and cleaning up the splattered blood.

5. They might be particularly worried about the vaccine-hesitant, feeling hesitancy is a bigger risk than the deaths caused by vaccine rollouts taking a few months longer. They might feel the best way to reassure the vaccine-hesitant is to be demonstrably extra-vigilant, rather than providing reassurance that might sound like denial or cover-up.

6. Public health comms has to be inclusive of even the dumbest people in the population. Nuanced, complex messages might get lost in the mix. With this, the message is "WE NOT GIVE YOU BAD VACCINE. YOU GET VACCINE WE GIVE YOU GOOD VACCINE." - very simple!

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#194
post #3

Not giving it to 65+ people seems overly cautious. There are zero cases in that group and even just a small delay will mean many dead. This is trading a potential unlikely side effect for a large number of severe Covid cases in high risk groups. Edit: yes I'm aware they have only a dozen or so dead per week but that also translates to hundreds of severe cases, missed elective surgeries, etc. For what would most likel…

[dead]

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#195
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The >65 population in Scandinavia is largely vaccinated already, and incidence of new cases is low. So it's a decision that might be questioned, but which would have small real-world consequences even if it turned out to be incorrect in isolation. That part of the decision might just be the combination of uncertainty combined with the public's skepticism towards this particular vaccine. Giving an impression of listen…

> The >65 population in Scandinavia is largely vaccinated already, and incidence of new cases is low. 80+ population is largely vaccinated. 70+ isn't, and 60+ is barely begun, at least in Sweden. But most deaths are in 80+, so current situation is that hospital admissions are trending up (because adults are largely unvaccinated), ICU is trending up (because 50+ are unvaccinated) but deaths are trending down (because…

[dead]

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#196
post #175
post #3

Not giving it to 65+ people seems overly cautious. There are zero cases in that group and even just a small delay will mean many dead. This is trading a potential unlikely side effect for a large number of severe Covid cases in high risk groups. Edit: yes I'm aware they have only a dozen or so dead per week but that also translates to hundreds of severe cases, missed elective surgeries, etc. For what would most likel…

It's kinda complicated, while I'm 100% on board with vaccinating, I do see the problem.. "You have some chance of getting Covid" then "If you get Covid you have some chances of getting seriously ill, permanent damage or die" vs "You have 100% chance of getting the vaccine" then "If you get the vaccine, you have come chance of dying" So it's not super simple to calculate the risk, especially not for me, so I shouldn't…

The thing is that in the 60+ group or 65+ group it's not that complicated: there have been zero concerns about the virus there, but the disease is very dangerous in that group. The difference in risk of dying from Covid vs dying from vaccination is large, even with Denmarks quite low spread.

It's quite possible that people under 60, or perhaps only women under 60 should not take it. In that group, the numbers are at least starting to be possible to compare. Which is why many countries have stopped it in that group (despite the risk of covid death even in that group being higher!).

So it's indeed not very simple, but you can always find a group where even conservatively counting the risk is enormous from the disease and tiny from the vaccine.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#197
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They failed to deliver and respect the contract with the EU. This and what their CEO said about the differences in contracts between UK and EU (timing and best efforts - while the differences did not justify the different treatment). They cared so little about PR that some science communicators (like Burioni in Italy) stopped to defend the AZ vaccine because of the total lack of statements and communications from AZ,…

Well, my interpretation is that AZ did, in fact, not violate the EU contract. The contract states "best effort", not penalties and even redemnifies AZ from delivery delays in case these delays are caused by additional orders from the EU. And guess what the EU did, IMHO mainly to media and public pressure, earlier this year. Given the bad press AZ got, reverting to a "no comment" strategy is not such a bad idea. Anyth…

"Best effort" has a specific meaning in a contract, which is different from everyday use; this is why AZ could still be found in violation of the contract. This does not change the fact they have been unable to deliver by a huge margin and informed the UE with a short notice.

A company that just avoid commenting on issues your product could have or misinformation regarding it does not seem a company that cares about that. Hard for me that they had a good PR strategy.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#198
post #68

There's a very special kind of arrogance going on in all the comment threads about the Covid vaccine suspensions. These decisions are being made by professionals. They have been trained to do exactly this kind of decision. They have access to the best possible data on both the risks of the vaccine, the risks of Covid in their local context, and the impact these decisions have on the national vaccination schedules. Bu…

Because only the experts that confirm your point of view are right, everyone else is a sham, this is the world we live in right now. Whatever sides we have, they are just as bad. People laugh about anti-vaxers and conspiracies, yet comments that call these decisions political conspiracies are upvoted and promoted.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#199
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's exactly it. There is a tradeoff to be made here with likely deaths on both sides, and the government is choosing much higher numbers of deaths because it looks better for them politically. That's immoral and cowardly. I don't see any way to justify the decision they've made logically.

I think there were broadly 3 strategies: 1. Do very little intervention, but perhaps isolate the vulnerable. This was the "Sweden strategy". 2. Do big interventions if cases rise, but only so far as is required to prevent hospitals being over-whelmed. This was the strategy in most of Europe, and in particular the UK. 3. Do big interventions with the intention of reaching "covid zero", including restrictions on intern…

I would have preferred a strategy of using financial incentives. Big fines for companies that refused to switch to remote work where it was feasible. An additional tax on indoor dining and shopping, to make curbside pickup more attractive. Fines and additional tax would go directly to lockdown financial relief.

Re: Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine

#200
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, my interpretation is that AZ did, in fact, not violate the EU contract. The contract states "best effort", not penalties and even redemnifies AZ from delivery delays in case these delays are caused by additional orders from the EU. And guess what the EU did, IMHO mainly to media and public pressure, earlier this year. Given the bad press AZ got, reverting to a "no comment" strategy is not such a bad idea. Anyth…

"Best effort" has a specific meaning in a contract, which is different from everyday use; this is why AZ could still be found in violation of the contract. This does not change the fact they have been unable to deliver by a huge margin and informed the UE with a short notice. A company that just avoid commenting on issues your product could have or misinformation regarding it does not seem a company that cares about…

I wrote drafts and analyzed procurement contracts for smaller volumes and less critical parts before. Of course with legal support. And all these contracts included initial delivery schedules (as an annex), delivery SLAs and penalties. And they were all considerably longer than the AZ contractthat was published. Fun fact, they didn't sacrifice 5 pages to talk about the order form.

The AZ contract has none of that. Ultimately, it would need a court to decide that. Once the point of discusing contract terms, the relation ship between supplier and customer is already ruined.

Post reply on HN