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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#191

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

rel2thr wrote: post #48
School-Cotton wrote: post #20

We’ve completely transformed human civilization in a desperate attempt to slow down the spread of this virus that kills 1 in 200 people, and now we don’t want to use one of the miracle cures because of a literal one in a million chance of issues. People are absolute garbage at thinking about scale.

It’s not a sim city decision. In young healthy people the risk of covid death is much lower than 1/200 , so you gotta see why this would make people hesitate.

As a young healthy people myself, I'm not tremendously concerned about either risk on a personal level, but I'm very concerned about getting vaccinated as fast as possible so I can do what I'd like without spreading disease. (To their credit, the agencies seem to have evaluated this and concluded the pause won't have a huge impact on vaccination timelines - but that won't do much for the people who were hoping to get it today!)

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#192

Post by fasteddie31003 »

The CDC and FDA have done a terrible job in my opinion with the pandemic. They are prime example of government institutional decay. The consiquentalists will win because the J&J vax helps more people than it hurts. This will only add to vax hesitancy. When the dust settles this decision will kill more people than it saves. I had the J&J vax. I got side effects but I now have some immunity to COVID-19 and it's worth it.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#193

Post by endisneigh »

ChadHomenim wrote: post #160
endisneigh wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please then, post your source and post the alternative that doesn't have the issue (orders of magnitude more).

"Citation needed" is a lazy way to throw FUD at an argument; if someone who didn't even leave the comment you are responding to can spend 30 seconds to find the citation on Google to answer your question, you could have done so yourself instead of demanding other people cite every single thing they say lest they aren't believed.

Good grief. You make the claims:

> Hormonal birth control boasts clot rates of 1 per 10k

This differs depending on the age from my research. Your overall seems too high when risk adjusted. I asked you to post your source so we could discuss from the same source. In any case per (https://www.healthline.com/health/birth-control/pulmonary-em...):

- Out of every 10,000 women taking birth control pills, 3 to 9 of them will develop a blood clot.

- Out of every 10,000 women who are not pregnant and who do not use birth control pills, 1 to 5 of them will develop a blood clot.

- Out of every 10,000 pregnant women, 5 to 20 of them will develop a blood clot.

- Out of every 10,000 women in the first 12 weeks after giving birth, 40 to 65 of them will develop a blood clot.

In other words, taking birth control pills actually reduces blot clot rates compared to pregnancy, the very thing birth control pills prevent. Your entire point is moot.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#194

Post by stickfigure »

endisneigh wrote: post #159
bentlegen wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of today about 560,000 people in the US have died of COVID, or roughly 1 in 574. I think it’s safe to say the odds are higher than “1 in a million”.

My point isn't to say that 1 in a million die of COVID, my point is that psychologically the decision makes sense.

We don't need to have abstract philosophical conversations about hypothetical numbers. We know the real ones.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#195

Post by goonogle »

memling wrote: post #73
goonogle wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Healthcare is extremely weak on science. The profession existed before the scientific method so there is a tendency to value authority over science. Even today Physicians still think the body is Art, or a combination of Art and Science. And the only reason we don't have a science based alternative to the Physician cartel is that they spent literally $400,000,000 on lobbying/bribery in the last 30 years. Edit- for fur…

> The profession existed before the scientific method so there is a tendency to value authority over science. Anecdotally, my pediatrician has an inverted "trust pyramid" in some of their examination rooms. At the bottom—least trust—is "expert opinion." > Even today Physicians still think the body is Art, or a combination of Art and Science. I'm not sure why you would think these two things are opposed? Science most…

When you have a Physician recommend a dangerous procedure because of their feelings over scientifically proven procedure it's dualistic.

This actually happened.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#196

Post by fasteddie31003 »

throwaway823882 wrote: post #54

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said it was acting "out of an abundance of caution". How is putting millions of people at risk of long-term (or fatal) complications from COVID-19 an abundance of caution ? An abundance of caution would mean you give people the vaccine because that way, less people will die! Unless a thousand people are dying from the vaccine a day, the math is simple!

The FDA are honestly being way too conservative in their vaccine ethics. They are letting deontological ethics trump consequentialism. My motto lately is FDA PLEASE GET OUT OF MY WAY.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#197

Post by endisneigh »

stickfigure wrote: post #174
endisneigh wrote: post #150

I love how people are complaining about this decision without addressing the fact that there are two other vaccines that don't have this issue that have been used orders of magnitude more. Why wouldn't you pause J&J? It's just a drop in the bucket in total vaccinations anyway and the other two don't have this issue.

According to the article, 6.8 million people in the US have received the J&J shot. Without the J&J vaccine, those people (6.8 million others) would not be vaccinated due to lack of supply. The US CDC website[1] currently says the 7-day death rate per 100k people is 1.4. Without the J&J vaccine, that's almost 100 additional people dying per week - and just in the US. [1] https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases…

Is your logic basically that as long as the vaccine kills fewer people than COVID all is well?

Pausing briefly to investigate this seems prudent. If we had the same prudence with COVID overall we wouldn't be in this situation to begin with.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#198

Post by yojo »

ceejayoz wrote: post #2

Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…

Seems like a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” kind of scenario. If you don’t pause the rollout, there will be news articles that the government ignored deadly side effects, resulting in lack of trust and vaccine hesitancy. If you do pause the rollout, you get vaccine hesitancy.

Agreed that if everyone is rational/good at math the optimal outcome is proceed with dosing, but sadly that is not the world we live in and the “broken trust” scenario might be more damaging.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#199

Post by supportlocal4h »

We allow people to receive no vaccination at all. But we won't allow them to get this vaccine if they want it?

This reminds me about all those governments that allow people to buy and sell cigarettes, but ban the sale of raw milk.

Can we just name this "Raw Milk Syndrome"?

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#200

Post by altacc »

ChadHomenim wrote: post #138

Hormonal birth control boasts clot rates of 1 per 10k, yet we hand that out like candy to little girls. Yet this is considered "too dangerous..." Edit: mods locked my account for this, lol. Some of the idiots replying are purposely conflating progestogen stats with non-progestogen stats, which is dishonest at best and willfully evil at worst. 2/3 of the market causing clots is fine? What a braindead take. I expected…

While this is an interesting point to consider it's not completely equivalent. In short, taking an action that might harm in exchange for a small possibility of a benefit is much less appealing than taking an action which might harm you but will definitely bring a benefit.

To expand, people accept a level of risk depending upon the benefit they expect to get from it. In the case of the contraceptive pill the user has a clear & definite benefit (e.g. they are very unlikely to get pregnant from the sex they are definitely having). The benefit of the vaccine for the individual is less clear & loosely defined. It's another probability that's hard to know. The recipient might not get Covid-19 and if they did they might not get it badly. So it's a much more difficult benefit to weigh against the risk.

The assessment is easier the more at risk the recipient is (hence restricting use to older generations) and on a larger scale, where policy makers can compare that 1 in a million increase to the x in a million that will die from Covid-19. But for individuals, most people are not good at making those judgements correctly.

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