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Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

theguardian.com

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Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#191

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

tw04 wrote: post #157
fuoqi wrote: post #140

I wonder if electrical grids are really prepared for mass adoption of EV. For example, UK is already quite reliant on the HVDC link [0] from France. In 2016 it got damaged resulting in a reduced capacity, which has caused serious concerns at the time. And it's not only about power generation, it's also quite probable that a lot of existing power lines would have to be updated to satisfy a higher demand for electrical…

I've been trying to wrap my head around this as well. You look at the repeated rolling brown-outs that seem to happen in places like California every few years, and I wonder how throwing 10s of millions of cars that all need to charge at extremely high rates is going to be absorbed. Sure, SOME of those people might also install things like solar panels and batteries, but I just don't see how the math works right now.

If a Tesla battery is 100kWh and it gets like 350 miles - and you can get 6 hours of sun on a 350 watt panel per day on average - that means 2 panels could charge your car about once per month, right?

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#192

Post by fuoqi »

abeppu wrote: post #166
fuoqi wrote: post #140

I wonder if electrical grids are really prepared for mass adoption of EV. For example, UK is already quite reliant on the HVDC link [0] from France. In 2016 it got damaged resulting in a reduced capacity, which has caused serious concerns at the time. And it's not only about power generation, it's also quite probable that a lot of existing power lines would have to be updated to satisfy a higher demand for electrical…

I think the other side of the coin is also interesting: If we're smart, could we use EVs to make the grid more resilient? Could we be thinking of EVs both as transportation and as flexible and hyperlocal power storage. E.g. parked EVs could reverse-meter if there's very high power demand, and absorb cheap (or negative cost) power when it's really windy in Texas, etc.

I see several problems with this idea:

- EV battery recharge resource is not infinite. Spending it on grid stabilization could be quite costly if you'll factor in cost of battery replacement. In the long run it could be cheaper to build mines for hydroelectric/compressed air storage.

- It will require huge capital investments. You have to equip every parking spot with inverters which can both charge EV and supply power from it to the grid and invest into upgrading grid to be smart enough to work in such conditions.

- What will happen on low-energy days? It's fine to drain most of power from hydroelectric storage or from stationary flow batteries, but you simply can not do it with EV. Imagine being told "sorry pal, you have to walk home today, power from your EV was used to stabilize the grid".

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#193

Post by jasonv »

zizee wrote: post #174
sandworm101 wrote: post #51

Maybe in the UK, but not where I am. It was -26 this morning. Batteries don't handle such temperatures well. And the nearest civilian airport is 400km away. I haven't seen a single all-electric car in my town since I moved here over a year ago.

Honest question: what percentage of the worlds population live in areas with such conditions?

Relative to the population buying new cars regularly..? I'd guess a lot.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#194

Post by thatfrenchguy »

turtlebits wrote: post #178

Mass adoption won't happen until charging infrastructure improves dramatically. As a non-Tesla owner, I have had the worst experiences at fast charging stations - I'd say 70% of the time at Electrify America stations (they have the most fast charging coverage), I run into a charger that doesn't work and waste time moving my car and retrying another bay. (I've even experienced a station with 5 bays where none of them…

Opposite experience in 2020 here at EA: sure, I've seen stalls that don't work a few times but it seems to be well correlated with their app showing you they don't work, and most of the time it just works

That is in California, did around ~40-50 charging sessions.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#195

Post by cptskippy »

tzs wrote: post #93
ntsplnkv2 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real issue is charge times. Gas fillups take a few minutes at most - meaning no long lines. Once charges are close to that speed I think EVs will really take off.

To put some numbers on this, you can measure charge rates/fueling rates as number of miles worth of charge/fuel provided per hour of charging/fueling. A Tesla V3 Supercharger can charge at a rate of about 1000 mph or 1600 kph. A 240 volt 48 amp home charger home charger can charge a Model 3 at a rate of 44 mph or 71 kph. A US gas pump can pump a maximum of 10 gallons per minute. If you refill at a station with such a…

The flaw in your reasoning, and most people arguing against BEVs is they envision the demand for charging stations is going to be in any way similar to the demand for gas stations.

A regular 120v charger can put 60 miles on an EV overnight which is more than enough for the average commute. I did this for 2 years with a 50 mile round-trip commute. I started each day with 100% charge on my Nissan Leaf, arrived home each night with ~35 miles of range, and plugged it in.

When we got our Model 3, we charged exclusively on 120v for about a year and only used a Supercharger on road trips out of state.

We're a BEV only household and have used a charging station once in the last 6 months. I took the Leaf out to empty a storage unit 40 miles away and I only stopped for 10 minutes to put enough range so I wasn't coasting home on fumes.

I realize that not everyone can charge at home, but a large portion of the population can and that will dramatically reduce the demand for charging stations. When you realize that anywhere you stop for long periods of time (e.g. restaurants, grocery stores, office parks) can install chargers, then you quickly realize that charging stations will only really be needed along highways.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#196

Post by pjc50 »

chrisseaton wrote: post #126
davidhbolton wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I lived in London until 2015 and took a recent look on Street View where I lived (Search for E10 6QB if you want to see) . It was a typical London street where everyone parks nose to nose. There's about 20 cars for every lamp post. No way could you charge every car that way. With the typical 50-70% street occupancy. You'd be lucky to find a spare lamp post.

> There's about 20 cars for every lamp post. Maybe the real problem is we have too many cars in the first place? Maybe we should limits cars to one per couple or something like that?

That is one car per couple, or less, in central London! Well, apart from the oligarchs.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#197

Post by magicalhippo »

davidhbolton wrote: post #109
rini17 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After street lighting was upgraded to more energy-effective LEDs there's surplus capacity. Making every pole available for slow overnight charging does not mean to "completely revamp entire neighborhoods". The possibility to sell the electricity might even become attractive for municipality or utility. Also, parking is going to be overhauled anyway, after decades of cars occupying every nook and cranny, there's a str…

I lived in London until 2015 and took a recent look on Street View where I lived (Search for E10 6QB if you want to see) . It was a typical London street where everyone parks nose to nose. There's about 20 cars for every lamp post. No way could you charge every car that way. With the typical 50-70% street occupancy. You'd be lucky to find a spare lamp post.

> No way could you charge every car that way.

But surely the majority of those cars have a short commute. We have a BMW i3 which has a relatively small 33kWh battery, and we usually charge it less than twice per week.

A car with a longer range wouldn't need to be charged that often.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#198

Post by davmar »

a year ago I bought a used 2016 nissan leaf for driving around town for 11k.

it's the best car i've ever owned. the design is ugly, the generic silver is hideous, but i'm so emotionally attached to it. i don't drive my really nice (and newer) VW GTI anymore.

if you're thinking of getting an EV, you don't have to buy a tesla. the used leafs are just brilliant.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#199

Post by ogre_codes »

turtlebits wrote: post #178

Mass adoption won't happen until charging infrastructure improves dramatically. As a non-Tesla owner, I have had the worst experiences at fast charging stations - I'd say 70% of the time at Electrify America stations (they have the most fast charging coverage), I run into a charger that doesn't work and waste time moving my car and retrying another bay. (I've even experienced a station with 5 bays where none of them…

The supercharger network is Teslas not-so-secret weapon.

Re: Electric vehicles close to ‘tipping point’ of mass adoption

#200

Post by albertgoeswoof »

uncledave wrote: post #130
marvin wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This line of reasoning is incorrect. Unlike fossil refuelling, the vast majority of EV charging happens at home. This charging does not load public charging stations at all. Unless your needs are esoteric, you might only charge at a public charging station one out of twenty times. Of course some homes don't have private charging easily available, but that's a different argument.

Very few homes have anywhere to charge anything in London as an example. I don’t think the model works without knocking cities down and starting again. The two people I know with Teslas have to charge at the local supercharger or park it a quarter of a mile away at the nearest slow charger which becomes a chore.

Stick a couple of plug sockets in every lamppost in London, add fast charging bays at the end of every road and you’re done.
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