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London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

hsj.co.uk

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Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#191

Post by ldrndll »

polote wrote: post #80
jpxw wrote: post #33

And yet we still have idiots here in the UK saying things ranging from: * coronavirus is invented as a government power grab * the government locking down is a deliberate ploy to kill small businesses * the government should just let this run its course, it’s Just A Flu TM * hospitals are actually empty (the “proof” being people recording empty waiting rooms in outpatient departments on bank holiday weekends) * coron…

> the government should just let this run its course Isn't it just an opinion? I personally think that way. Why wouldn't I be allowed to think that?

That isn’t the full statement though, you omitted the part about it being just like the flu. I think if you believe that it should be allowed to run its course understanding what it entails then you’re either woefully ignorant or something of a sociopath (but that’s addressed in other comments below). However, believing it should run its course because it’s no worse than the rule is not just an opinion, it clearly ignores all evidence to the contrary and is roughly equivalent to the others in terms of bring completely detached from fact or empirical evidence.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#192

Post by cptskippy »

lol768 wrote: post #149
ppod wrote: post #77

People who are making claims about hospital capacity should compare them to the same times in previous years. The data is all available online: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas...

So, January 2019 in London Commissioning Region hospitals: 1033 open adult critical care beds; 882 in use. 85% utilisation. Best-case forecast Jan 2021: 2078 critical care beds required, 1,661 available (increase of ~600). Forecasted 125% utilistation.

I took the term open to mean unoccupied which put them at 46% utilization.

The columns in the spreadsheet are "Sum of Number of adult critical care beds open" and "Sum of Number of adult critical care beds occupied".

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#193

Post by selimthegrim »

war1025 wrote: post #70
anonunivgrad wrote: post #37

In Florida, bars and restaurants are just about fully open and everything is just fine.

Near as I can tell things are pretty wide open here in Iowa. We even had the honor of getting an Atlantic scare article of "This is what happens when government does nothing" Turns out what happens when government does nothing is things are perfectly fine.

Hospital in La Crosse wanted to give you detailed genome sequencing to trace outbreaks and you told them to go fish

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#194

Post by jiggawatts »

owl57 wrote: post #117
jiggawatts wrote: post #9

If a mutant strain of COVID-19 becomes twice as deadly, this "merely" doubles the pressure on hospitals. A constant factor like this can be dealt with. However, an increased rate of spread (R factor) is a change in the parameter of the exponential curve, and cannot be dealt with by any sub-exponential response. The only thing that could possibly work is to change the factor. Rapid vaccination or lockdown. It's imposs…

> People are concerned about the lethality getting worse, but they shouldn't be They should. Lockdowns deal with the exponential phase, but in the long term the process is not exponential. The virus is probably going to infect half of population anyway. There simply aren't ten times more people it could infect. On the other hand, there are ten times more people it could kill or cripple.

Percentage wise the total population infection rate even in the US and UK isn't actually high, something like 9-11 percent at the moment after a full year of the virus spreading.

Even with this faster spreading strain, it's possible that the vaccination efforts will win out and halt the spread before it reaches 50% of the population.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#197

Post by oxfordmale »

Looking at COVID models, the hospital admission peak is around the 10th of January UK wide. Cases have already started to level in London. Lockdown has been implemented too late to make any significant difference to that.

Not the most reliable source, but confirmed by other sources which are unfortunately behind a paywall.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9115357/amp/Coronav...

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#198

Post by lazyjones »

cptskippy wrote: post #171
ppod wrote: post #77

People who are making claims about hospital capacity should compare them to the same times in previous years. The data is all available online: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas...

The data you provided isn't easily compared to the data in the article. I did a pivot off the Jan 2019 data and got this... LONDON COMMISSIONING REGION Adult Critical Care Beds: Open: 1033 Occupied: 882 -------------- Total: 1915 According to the Article London has... BEST CASE Adult Critical Care Beds: Unmitigated: 1392 Mitigated: 1661 So they lost 300-600 beds capacity since 2019?

Austria and Germany also report lower total ICU capacities than 1 year ago before the start of the pandemic. Weird...

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#199

Post by nitrogen »

dandellion wrote: post #178
titzer wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In every society since the dawn of man, certain things carried a social cost. In our society, advocating idiotic conspiracies should carry, IMHO, a social cost of feeling embarrassed and stupid. Frankly.

At this point I'm not sure they're capable of feeling embarrassed or stupid. They get all riled up and start acting out, but it doesn't look like insulting and embarrassing them is working...

Surprise surprise, amplifying division just further amplifies division.

We're hearing this:

A: "I'm dying inside because of lockdown. I can't work and I'm this close to the end of my rope."

Should the response be this?

B: "People are dying outside because of COVID. I don't care about your pain. You are an idiot."

A: [storms capitol]

Or this?

B: "This sucks all around for sure. Your pain is real, and I feel it too. The tradeoffs made by society as a whole based on available data are X Y and Z, but here's a list of things you can do for now to help make ends meet and keep it together...."

A: "Thanks, I'm glad we're able to help one another out."

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#200

Post by mrtksn »

alkonaut wrote: post #71
lrossi wrote: post #41

Here is a video filmed in London this Christmas: https://youtu.be/Yz7wJZln6Kw Plenty of people outside. In fact, I would call it lightly crowded, although less than other years. Many people don’t wear masks. It’s not a surprise that transmission has increased. Nevertheless, London looked absolutely beautiful. Not sure if this was worth the risks though.

The people in the video seem to just walk around outdoors and not very close to other people. That many people obviously will mean a risk that some of them go into stores, but if there is a reasonably safe thing to do outdoors (like a particularly nice street) it’s natural that this becomes extra popular when people want to find something to do outdoors.

Did they teleport to the outside and socialised only with people within their bubble?
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