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Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

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Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#191

Post by Izkata »

azangru wrote: post #48
muttantt wrote: post #38

1. Major earthquake on the US west coast 2. Bitcoin will hit $60K but will also touch again $5K in 2021 3. Trump will remain President 4. $VIX will hit $100

> Trump will remain President How?

Believe it or not, there's some weird ways for it to happen; this is the scenario that I can remember offhand, but I think there's one or two more:

It sounds like Pence is the one that counts (or doesn't) the electoral votes, so depending on the circumstances it could result in neither candidate getting 270, which results in a "contingent election" - one vote per state, from the House of Representatives, which would be majority Republican, for the president. The Senate would choose the vice-president in the same way - so if this actually happens, it's apparently possible (if absurdly unlikely) to get a Trump/Harris or Biden/Pence outcome.

One possible reason Pence could do that is if the contested states send two sets of electors - one certified by the governor (how we usually do it) and one by the (Republican) legislature. My understanding is that if both groups of electors are correctly certified, either Pence would have to choose which to count, ignore both, or the Supreme Court would get involved. Key phrase for finding more on this is "dueling electors"; a lot of places are saying the legislature-certified ones wouldn't be valid, but a handful say it's possible.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#192

Post by brobinson »

kart23 wrote: post #186
brobinson wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>starts to remove particularly egregious examples of online hate websites Hate speech is free speech in the US, though. The government can only get involved if there's incitement of "imminent lawless action". I could see private companies trying to stomp out the sites (refuse to host them, etc.), but the government can't do anything except in the case I mentioned earlier.

the government seizes domains all the time. The idea of them shutting down websites because of terrorism isn't new. 'National Security' overrides free speech in the 21st century. The facilitating crimes angle can easily be used as well against a rowdy online community. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/united-states-seizes-domain-n... https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/pr/united-states-seizes-27... https://www.justice.go…

OP is talking about stuff like stormfront.org which is still up after like 20+ years. Your examples are terrorism and prostitution/money laundering. The federal government can't do anything about sites like stormfront.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#193

Post by mkl »

markessien wrote: post #150

- At least 5 presidents of 3rd world countries will die - Much, much stronger ties between central europe and china - Chia will become top 10 crypto - DNA manipulation will become much bigger - Facebook will go into proper decline - Start of the break up of google ad business from google search business - A few small EU alternative search engines come up - Battery as a platform continues accelerating - new mobility f…

> - Google search results will start becoming way better and super personalised as their data efforts start showing results

This one is very surprising to me. I think Google's results have been getting worse for me every year for a long time. They used to supposedly have the goal of getting people off the search page as quickly as possible, but it seems to me their recent data efforts have the goal of making people spend more time on search pages where they can see and click on ads. I.e. worse search results, caused by ignoring search terms and showing unrelated things instead. Why would 2021 be any different?

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#195

Post by mkl »

Sebb767 wrote: post #74
yen223 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Click the link for 2020 cmd-f 'virus': 0 results Predictions are hard

Even though Corona was already in the news at that time. Oh well, at least we weren't the only ones to get caught of guard.

That discussion was Dec 16, 2019. That was the day of Wuhan's first Covid-19 hospital admissions, so I don't think it was really in the news yet.

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#196

Post by Dirak »

* 50% of all US currency is printed between now and the end of 2021

* 1 Bitcoin will cost over $100k on Dec 31, 2021

* An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge

* FB releases a thin virtual reality headset https://research.fb.com/blog/2020/06/holographic-optics-for-...

* Austin Tx or Seattle Wa succeeds Silicon Valley as the next major tech hub. San Francisco and its century old Victorians become the Detroit of the tech world

* Section 230 doesn't get repealed

* WFH and quarantine continues until the summer

* A React competitor that compiles to WASM with promises of perf and space gains will emerge

* A Reddit competitor emerges and wins majority marketshare

* 2021 will be the year of punk and rock n' roll

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#199

Post by egfx »

Dirak wrote: post #196

* 50% of all US currency is printed between now and the end of 2021 * 1 Bitcoin will cost over $100k on Dec 31, 2021 * An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge * FB releases a thin virtual reality headset https://research.fb.com/blog/2020/06/holographic-optics-for-... * Austin Tx or Seattle Wa succeeds Silicon Valley as the next major tech hub. San Francisco and its century old Victorians become…

* An animation tool rivaling Adobe Flash for the web will emerge

It’s already here https://gif.com.ai

Re: Ask HN: Predictions for 2021?

#200

Post by blackrock »

1. Remote work is here to stay. Because covid vaccines will fail to reach herd immunity. Because the mRNA vaccines are too complicated to manufacture and deploy.

2. China will eradicate the virus within their borders, because their vaccine is easier to manufacture and deploy. And is probably safer, since it uses the traditional inactivated virus technique. So less side effects for most people.

3. Housings prices will continue increasing. Further separating the haves vs. the have-nots.

4. QE infinity is here to stay. Low interest rates will continue to push up asset prices for stocks and housing.

5. The virus will continue to ravage America for the next 5 years. Then the mutations will come.

6. Lots of houses will be foreclosed on, but wealthy companies and investors will swoop them up for pennies on the dollar.

7. American politicians will continue to be absolutely clueless, as to how their decisions and indecisions, will further ravage the fabric of society.

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