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Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#191

Post by guardiangod »

ksaj wrote: post #189
maxerickson wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's not a whole lot of evidence that illegal border crossings from Canada are a major driver of the spread in the US. And of course, the same can be said for Mexico (because the main driver of the spread in the US is people not taking simple steps to prevent it). Travel to Canada has been restricted for much of the year (I live in Michigan; there's a warning 4 hours from the border that travel is restricted). But…

> There's not a whole lot of evidence that illegal border crossings from Canada are a major driver of the spread in the US. Ironically it's the other way around, too. Our borders are shut to tourists, but they keep showing up in Canmore and Banff anyway. And now Alberta has a serious problem with Covid spread, and a friend of my sister's just died a couple days ago from it. They have 1/3 the population of Ontario, ye…

Don't blame the Americans for what that fool of a premier J Kennedy has done. Alberta could have clamped down the 3rd wave like BC has. Instead JK followed the right ringers wish and let everyone continue to gather.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#192

Post by yurlungur »

jsnell wrote: post #20
sigil wrote: post #7

As discussed on TWiV yesterday, B.1.1.7 isn't a "strain," which has demonstrably different biological properties, but is still considered a "variant." https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-697/ Any biological differences are theorized solely from the genome at this point. In the episode, Racaniello is at pains to point out that genomic differences alone don't imply biological differences in say transmission, and things li…

TWIW has kind of painted themselves into the corner by insisting that anything except biological evidence is irrelevant. The evidence for B.1.1.7 being more transmissive is quite solid, and seems to be getting more so as time goes on. But no matter how strong the statistical data is, it could never be good enough for them. So their policy recommendation ends up as "do nothing at all until there is 100% certain non-ci…

Yeah it really depends on how the numbers match up and how much risks you are willing to take given the degree of confidence in those numbers.

By current accounts the vaccines will still work against this variant. So the last thing you want to happen is for the virus to catch the vulnerables in the last moment before they are vaccinated and essentially renders the whole vaccination program ineffective.

Of course there's the debate of this whole pandemic about the harm to economy and people's lives etc. To me the majority of the damage has already been done and can't be undone. So I'd like the measures to be taken to end this ASAP, even if they are even stricter, and to mitigate the harm as much as possible. But I highly doubt that's what's going to happen. The actual policy effects may be neither here nor there.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#193

Post by hombre_fatal »

ketamine__ wrote: post #162
sjg007 wrote: post #152

Just wait until it mutates and starts killing kids. Kids are currently the last to be vaccinated. I know this is morbid but this does not bode well but there is precedent. Spanish flu first only killed the elderly and then on its return killed young adults and kids disproportionately. Now the Spanish flu was influenza and this is coronavirus but this specific coronavirus should not be underestimated. I’ve said this f…

> I’ve said this from the beginning Is that relevant and who are you?

It's just a low effort rhetorical device where the speaker hopes to boost their signal. Much like "I don't normally say this but."

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#194

Post by mancerayder »

sokoloff wrote: post #164
mancerayder wrote: post #154

It's not too surprising to anyone following the events. Retroactive blood testing of donated blood should the original strain (the phrase original variant sounds like an oxymoron) having reached places like France and NY months earlier than we realized, certainly November if not September of 2018. The magic of the virus is its ability to travel and spread undetected due to asymptomatic carriers. At least now widespre…

> November if not September of 2018 Presumably you mean 2019?

Yup :-)

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#195

Post by GoldenStake »

landemva wrote: post #184

It is difficult to know what sources of information to trust. I already have antibodies, and thought I would be ok for a while. If this is a new strain, how would they know to make a vaccine for it, and how many vaccines will I need each year? Also, the article here says "case count". I'm really interested in the count of "excess deaths".

The current vaccine is a new technology, which codifies the spike protein in mRNA. SAR-COV-2 works by using their spike protein to attach to your body's ACE2 receptors, This new vaccine time is targeting something that is invariant and integral to SAR-COV viruses (the spike protein which gives it entrance) and almost certainly covers the new variant

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#196

Post by panda88888 »

sokoloff wrote: post #163
dragonwriter wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That is like using ankle bracelets for tracking people under quarantine, just worse. To the extent mandatory quarantines are justifiable, this method of enforcement seems reasonable and minimally invasive given the purpose. I don't see why it's worse than ankle bracelets.

Mandatory quarantines of those with a positive test result seems perfectly reasonable. Mandatory quarantines and/or continuous location monitoring of what should be free citizens does not strike me as in any way reasonable.

Mandatory quarantine is only required after initial entry to Taiwan. After 14 days the person is free to move about without any continuous location monitoring. This is needed because of the presymptomatic period of COVID-19. By cutting off potential vectors of née infections the entire country is able to enjoy normal lives instead of prolonged quarantine. The mandatory quarantine period is also publicized, so the visitors can make a decide if it is worth it to enter the country. Many people have went to Taiwan despite the mandatory quarantine—they are choosing 2 weeks of lockdown then normal life rather than seemingly unending lockdown amid worsening pandemic.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#197

Post by paganel »

howlgarnish wrote: post #113
starkd wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's because it's an island. All the islands are doing better than whole continents. You can't contain it unless you go full bore like the chinese - locking people into their homes.

Sigh, this old canard again. Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Singapore are all doing fine without "locking people into their homes" and they're not islands. (Ok, Singapore technically is an island but it's connected to Malaysia by the world's busiest border crossing; and Thailand's grappling with a new outbreak now but it seems to be improving.)

Maybe there's a genetic component to this virus? Which is "verboten" to be discussed and analysed because of various reasons ("race is a social construct" and all that), but at some point one has to take this into consideration too. All due respect to Laos, but I don't see it as having the needed expert infrastructure in order to keep this virus under control as well as they have. Similar discussion for Thailand.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#199

Post by carlmr »

Izkata wrote: post #118
carlmr wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Also the weather is going to get better in the North Hemisphere soon January is colder than December usually. We're not even over the peak. February should be roughly similar to December, March is when it gets better again usually. But that's still 2 months of people staying indoors a lot.

Barring post-Thanksgiving spikes, cases in the US Midwest have been dropping since mid-November. And the spikes didn't even show up in all those states. Seems like places are getting past the peak already despite the temperature still dropping.

In Germany they've been rising despite the lockdown light.

Re: Mutated Covid-19 strain confirmed in Japan as case tally hits record high

#200

Post by _cs2017_ »

jsnell wrote: post #20
sigil wrote: post #7

As discussed on TWiV yesterday, B.1.1.7 isn't a "strain," which has demonstrably different biological properties, but is still considered a "variant." https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-697/ Any biological differences are theorized solely from the genome at this point. In the episode, Racaniello is at pains to point out that genomic differences alone don't imply biological differences in say transmission, and things li…

TWIW has kind of painted themselves into the corner by insisting that anything except biological evidence is irrelevant. The evidence for B.1.1.7 being more transmissive is quite solid, and seems to be getting more so as time goes on. But no matter how strong the statistical data is, it could never be good enough for them. So their policy recommendation ends up as "do nothing at all until there is 100% certain non-ci…

Much as I like TWiV, they often present incorrect viewpoints.

What you describe is one such example. TWiV suggests that anything short of convincing proof should be ignored. However, every bit of evidence updates our individual confidence to some extent. It's quite silly to draw an arbitrary line at a certain "quality" of evidence, and treat anything below that line as useless.

I suspect that in an effort to debunk unreasonable and sensational stories in the media, TWiV got carried away, and started to sweep the subtleties under the carpet.

It seems these days, it's really hard to find highly nuanced, carefully balanced, sources of information.

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