FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine • Hacker News Board

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#191

Post by rualca » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 2:44 PM UTC

markus92 wrote: post #187

rualca wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I personally doubt they'd still be spending that money if they needed it, there's been plenty of time for a stability analysis by now. I don't believe your logic follows. There's a lot riding on this vaccine working as advertised, thus there is considerable pressure on Pfizer/BioNTech to deliver on that promise. If they know their vaccine is at peak effectiveness when transported at -90ºC and that the effectiveness…

That's true, on the other hand, consider that Moderna has lowered storage requirements twice in the past four months. This gives us three options, Is it Moderna taking more risks, Pfizer being more risk-averse or is the Moderna one inherently more stable?

> That's true, on the other hand, consider that Moderna has lowered storage requirements twice in the past four months.

Moderna's vaccine was the second to enter the US market. If Pfizer/BioNTech delayed their vaccine to work on lowering the temperature requirements, Moderna would eat their lunch, and Pfizer/BioNTech would be relegated to second place on the place it matters the most: the history books.

As is, I'm sure that Pfizer/BioNTech are already working on improving temperature requirements, while leading the race.

> This gives us three options, Is it Moderna taking more risks, Pfizer being more risk-averse or is the Moderna one inherently more stable?

I have zero insight on the situation, thus I can't really tell. However, it's clear that each and every single actor in the story, from biotech companies to politicians and also regulatory bodies, is taking way more risks on this issue than what they would otherwise take.

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#192

Post by spoopyskelly » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 3:10 PM UTC

davycro wrote: post #171

bsaul wrote: post #118

i'm surprised absolutely noone here talks about the fact that we have absolutely no idea what the long term consequences of this new tech are. We've all seen people advocating new wonderful technological solutions that fail because of unknown unknowns, in every field. That's just the rules of the R&D game. In that case we're seriously thinking about injecting a new kind of drug to the whole world population based on…

The case fatality rate is around 1.8% in the USA [1]. Current population is 330 million. So if the entire population becomes infected that’s 5.9 million dead. The case fatality rate would likely increase as we overwhelm healthcare resources, so it could be even worse. 1% may sound trivial but it becomes meaningful at the scale of a population. The benefits of the vaccine far outweigh the risks. I was injected yesterd…

> So if the entire population becomes infected that’s 5.9 million dead.

Around 2.8 million people die per year already, is that so bad?

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#193

Post by rleigh » Sun, Dec 20, 2020, 3:37 PM UTC

ed25519FUUU wrote: post #167

rleigh wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two doses is very common for vaccines because this is based upon how the immune system responds to real infections. The first dose will initiate a primary immune response. The second dose will act as a "challenge" to trigger a secondary immune response.

It sounds like one dose is enough to make you much less likely to develop serious symptoms or symptoms at all, and two doses gives you close to immunity.

Absolutely, after the first shot you do have immunity but it's not as fully developed compared with having two, so it will take longer to respond than with two, and that does present a larger window of opportunity for the virus to cause problems.

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#194

Post by CyanLite4 » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 7:53 PM UTC

MrAlex94 wrote: post #158

CyanLite4 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Challenge trials don’t work when 40% of infected are asymptomatic. And challenge trials especially don’t work when 15% of cases require hospitalization and ICU beds are already maxed out.

> Later, a vaccine candidate that has been proven safe in clinical trials could be given to a group of healthy adults in this age range, who are then exposed to the virus in a controlled environment. They would then be closely monitored by medics and researchers to see if the vaccine is successful in preventing infection, as well as identifying any side effects. > https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PII…

When the asymptomatic rate is high, it’s hard to determine if the vaccine is truly works, and to what degree. If 40% of people are asymptomatic then that would theoretically mean that 40% of challenge trial participants won’t show symptoms. Does that mean the vaccine is working? Who knows. It could be working, it may also not work.

The only way to do it and get real results is to use a challenge trial only on the elderly population where the asymptomatic rate is low and where the symptoms are exaggerated. This would mean though that if the vaccine didn’t work you would overwhelm the hospital system with a lot of sick elderly people who require the most care, when the healthcare system is already overwhelmed.

Re: FDA grants authorization to Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine

#195

Post by tathougies » Sat, Dec 26, 2020, 11:53 PM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #67

tathougies wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has 100 million doses of Pfizer and 50 million of Moderna, enough to cover a bit under half the country. Then, it has 500 million of the Oxford vaccine. Altogether, this is more than enough to cover the country. And then it has the option to purchase more..

It's two doses per person, so the first 150M only cover 75M people, not half of the country.

No, I read that the doses reported by the government are the full two doses, so if there are 100 million doses, then the government has 200 million shots.