Is it possible that just having an app doesn't make you a tech company? Anyone else ready to think Uber might just be an overvalued taxi company?
They are a logistics and pricing company. If they would license this tech they'd be rich beyond belief. They companies could really be Uber-for-X.
Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
191–200 of 376 posts
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#192This self-driving system promise keeps getting delayed! It looks to me this is a case of a donkey led by a carrot on a stick (investors are the donkey here). What I never understand is what happens when a new situation that the system did not previously train for happen? what if this situation is deadly? Will all the Uber cars decide to jump off a cliff because of a wrong signalization or bad weather? What will the T…
I think most people ask this kind of question because they assume the entire system is some kind of big if-else-if-else statement. The question about swerving and hitting the kid or the grandma follows the same logic.
What we have to realize is that a neural net can and will react to things it hasn't specifically been told about using heuristics and "similar" stuff, just like human drivers. (see video of Tesla FSD avoiding a deer recently [1])
This is exactly like a new, or student driver. They have not yet encountered every possible situation, but they're able to apply reason and logic to new things and the more they drive, the better they get. So although they've never seen a deer jump out, they know it's good to avoid things when possible BUT NOT to swerve into oncoming traffic if there is traffic. So even a new-ish driver who has never seen a deer on the road will do a decent job of slamming on the brakes and swerving if save to do so. Same goes if a tire bounces towards you on the freeway, etc. etc.
Tesla are working towards billions and billions of miles of this kind of "learning driving", where the system keeps getting better and better.
And even after those billions of miles there will be situations it has never seen before, but the required response will be extraordinarily similar to things it has seen before. Chances are it will do a better job than you or I, because it's reaction time is close enough to 0 not to matter, and emotions won't cloud it's judgment if something really extraordinary happens (plane lands on highway, flood washes away road, etc)
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
They’ll have a major share in Aurora after the fact. They just are focusing on their core competencies, I assume. To compete in the self driving space, you need to have 1) a crap ton of money and 2) the patience to wait 10 years before you see any ROI. Uber is not structured to do that this late in the game. They’ll probably get a preferred partnership for licensing the tech once it rolls out, if Uber still exists in…
Do they get ROI on rides or Eats? I was under the impression they were still pretty substantially subsidizing prices on those, though maybe that's just out of date information.
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#194Earlier quoted context omitted.
> What I never understand is what happens when a new situation that the system did not previously train for happen? This happens to human drivers all the time, and humans are really bad drivers even in situations that have happened before. I fully expect AI drivers to be safer than human drivers.
Human drivers can adapt to a new unseen before situation.
On the other hand, software can make mistakes at scale whereas each human makes mistakes differently.
It’s not so cut and dry.
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#195Is it possible that just having an app doesn't make you a tech company? Anyone else ready to think Uber might just be an overvalued taxi company?
Because we all know that VC's don't invest in non-tech companies anymore.
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
> What I never understand is what happens when a new situation that the system did not previously train for happen? This happens to human drivers all the time, and humans are really bad drivers even in situations that have happened before. I fully expect AI drivers to be safer than human drivers.
One pedestrian death due to cars occurs on average every ~200 million car-driven miles. Is that really bad? (the math is based on # of US miles driven in 2017 divided by the number of car-caused pedestrian fatalities in the same year)
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#197Earlier quoted context omitted.
[ https://medium.com/unikie/self-driving-cars-2020-and-beyond-... ] helped me understand the major players in self driving vehicles and what they're upto. Tesla does not use Lidar as a cost savings measure, and only uses camera output to determine how the car drives. It is unknown if this is enough to account for enough permutations of traffic, but they're calling it full self driving while using car owners as paying…
>Tesla does not use Lidar as a cost savings measure I think it is less about cost saving and more about getting to the root of the problem. According to Elon's statements, Lidar is a crutch and since the AI will eventually have to be good enough to remove the crutch, remove it an the get go and save learning how to use the crutch. This is similar to his reasoning about EVs. Since we will eventually have to have petro…
There's zero reason to believe him on this.
LIDAR - combined with vision - gives a much better awareness. The only reason not to use it is (or was) cost.
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#198Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wait, how is ride-sharing / cabs a dying industry? People are always going to need to get from point A to point B, and if anything, the younger generations are less likely to own cars. Public infrastructure is never going to fill the gap except in certain urban areas.
>the younger generations are less likely to own cars There's nothing inherent about this. If the promised alternatives to owning cars turn out to be BS, the younger generations will have to own cars whether they want to or not.
That's a pretty big opportunity for any firm that gets you home from the club at 3 AM.
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#199Is it possible that just having an app doesn't make you a tech company? Anyone else ready to think Uber might just be an overvalued taxi company?
I read somewhere that there are different levels of "tech" company. A truly tech company would work without any human intervention for multiple days without breakdown. A non-tech company involves human in every tasks required for work. Most of the companies fall somewhere in between. Ride services/Food delivery company cannot function without humans.
Re: Uber sells self-driving unit in deal that will push Aurora’s valuation to $10B
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am convinced that it takes another 100 to 200 years before we really have smart self driving cars. Maybe it will never happen as I think it will be much more likely that we have self flying drones before long before. Airspace being regulated heavily and thus much more predictable for a machine.
100 to 200 years is a very long time. Look at the exponential nature of technology, and even deep learning. Only in 2012 had the image network reached 90% accuracy levels, and now we have all sort of networks for all sorts of things, including style transfer for videos.