Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

theinformation.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

191–200 of 231 posts

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#191

Post by ericmay »

bobsil1 wrote: post #188
ericmay wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo hasn’t produce a single production car. I doubt their software works on random stop signs in Cleveland. Until I see them on the road, I’m ok watching incremental improvement happen. Being first doesn’t matter. > And AFAIK Tesla still can't recognize stopped vehicles on the highway and has no public plan to fix that. Can you elaborate on what you mean by this? I do have a Tesla (without full self-driving) and it…

Cars in motion → stationary are different from completely stationary objects, which are ignored due to high false positives.

If there is a stationary car and I turn on autopilot as I approach my car doesn’t ram into it. If I turn autopilot on when I’m stationary and the car in front of me is stationary it does not drive into the other car. If autopilot is on and a car is stopped at a red light in front of me my car does not slam into that car. I do this on a daily basis. Do you?

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#192

Post by ummonk »

revscat wrote: post #157
ummonk wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, Tesla is nowhere near self-driving capability. Collecting a bunch of unsupervised data on its own is not that useful.

I just drove from Dallas to southwestern Colorado and back. Of that, I estimate I drove ~15% of the entire miles driven. The rest was the car driving itself.

It's not the car driving itself if you need to be constantly attentive and ready to override it.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#193

Post by revscat »

justapassenger wrote: post #189
revscat wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your assertion that they are “dead last” remains ridiculous given the millions of self-driving miles their cars have driven.

It’s as much self driving as me saying that my dog understands English because he’s excited when I say “walk”.

Oh. You’re one of those.

Ok. Elon is a fraud, Tesla doesn’t sell vehicles, Autopilot doesn’t work, and ICE cars are the future.

Hail Putin.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#194

Post by ethbr0 »

yholio wrote: post #155
FreakyT wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Autonomous cars solve that in the same way an personal automobile currently does, albeit removing the inconvenience of actually driving. The problem with autonomous cars as compared to rail is that autonomy doesn't solve the other fundamental problem of cars: congestion. If I waved my magic wand and replaced every car in the bay area with a self-driving one overnight, roads would still clog at rush hour.

As long as human drivers are still in the mix, no, self-driving cars will not solve congestions. But fully self-driving cars could improve road efficiency by an order of magnitude. There is no need for trafic lights, they can drive in very close formation, they don't need parking space nor search for parking. Additionally, an inherently safe trafic system doesn't require 2 tons of steel around you for protection. The…

I'd be curious what percentage of congestion is caused by accidents, which one would expect to substantially decrease in rate with autonomous electric cars (fewer impacts & maintenance issues).

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#195

Post by ethbr0 »

aljg wrote: post #127
ethbr0 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd offer Kurzweil's (I believe?) observation that the futurist predictions that come true are those that substantially improve peoples' needs. Even substantially expanded rail will never solve the problem of "I want to get from point A to point B, as quickly as possible, whenever I'm ready to leave" in a fundamentally different way. The transit to the starting station might be shorter, and the transit from the endin…

>Even substantially expanded rail will never solve the problem of "I want to get from point A to point B, as quickly as possible, whenever I'm ready to leave" in a fundamentally different way. There is nothing ordained about this. If we stopped giving away billions of dollars of the most valuable real estate in the world (in the form of parking mandates and street parking) or stopped ruining neighborhoods with freewa…

Parking spaces seem unnecessary for autonomous vehicles. Wouldn't you just have dedicated load/unload zones?

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#196

Post by ethbr0 »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #113
d1zzy wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see people keep stating this but I'm not so sure about it. Do we know what critically important data Tesla cars collect at scale _and_ are able to send back to mothership and who pays for that bandwidth/traffic? To my mind most of the useful information (video recordings or pictures of moments when the AI driver wasn't sure about things and/or human intervened) seems like it would take a lot of bandwidth to send ba…

Yes, according to Karpathy. The cars upload data (typically still images) which are then labeled by humans and used as training data to improve the models.

The impression I got from GTC a few years ago was that they're probably doing synthetic graphics simulations, based on edge cases identified by real world data.

You don't really need 1000x real examples of a scenario, if one still image provides enough information for you to mimic it in simulation. (E.g. toppled barrel, weathered paint color and reflective stripe, in front of exit guard rail)

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#197

Post by smachiz »

treeman79 wrote: post #174
smachiz wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lol. You're VASTLY underestimating how much progress is being made by companies that aren't Uber. 3-10 years is a more realistic timetable than decades. "People overestimate what they can accomplish in one year, and underestimate what they can accomplish in 10".

20 dollars it’s more than 20 years. After all, writing an AI is just a summer project for couple of interns.

$100k on the under.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#198

Post by tmsh »

I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again.

Self-driving tech should be focused on driver enhancement and big replacement. This is an incremental evolution area.

The self-driving enhancements they could give to existing Uber drivers to help them stay safe over long driving periods would be huge. Drive that flywheel.

Let drivers multitask under safe scenarios in under 10mph traffic jams, open areas.

Build up those enhancements and you have a formidable, cheaper driver fleet that people would use v. buying a car.

Boil the ocean and you’ll be useful merely for your learnings to others.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#199

Post by tmsh »

I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again.

Self-driving tech should be focused on driver enhancement and not replacement. This is an incremental evolution area until all the 100 edge cases are 100%.

The self-driving enhancements they could give to existing Uber drivers to help them stay safe over long driving periods would be huge. Drive that flywheel (easier driving leads to more drivers, cheaper trips, more riders, etc.).

Let drivers multitask under safe scenarios in under 10mph traffic jams, open areas, queues, etc.

Build up those enhancements and you have a formidable, cheaper driver fleet that people would use perhaps v. buying a car.

Just saying it should happen in stages.

Re: Uber Wasted $2.5B on Self-Driving Cars

#200

Post by revscat »

ummonk wrote: post #192
revscat wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just drove from Dallas to southwestern Colorado and back. Of that, I estimate I drove ~15% of the entire miles driven. The rest was the car driving itself.

It's not the car driving itself if you need to be constantly attentive and ready to override it.

Sure does feel like it to me.
Post reply on HN