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Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

nationalgeographic.com

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Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#191

Post by toyg »

bassman9000 wrote: post #76
ntsplnkv2 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can no longer say "the west" and expect a unified response - brexit, the constant attacks on member nations of NATO by Trump, The Iran deal that Europe still backs but the US doesn't. There's a reason Russia and China are bold right now. EDIT: I get it, it's politically charged, but I remind everyone to discuss, rather than downvote, based on your own political opinion.

Most of the West wants to appease China. What response are you talking about. It's not standing in front, that's for sure. EU silence is deafening, except for some weak, mild comments here or there. China's diplomacy barks back, and EU commissioners become silent.

Sadly, EU institutions in the area of direct foreign policy have been continuously undermined - mostly by French and UK governments who wanted "their hands free", but also by tactical US moves to ensure NATO would stay relevant. There are real contrasts in outlook among member states when it comes to larger geopolitical issues (even extremely close to home, like Lybia and Turkey), coupled with a general unwillingness, among most member states, to engage in dangerous (and expensive) geopolitical games. That makes it hard to formulate robust action plans beyond the usual platitudes. There is no EU military force yet for that same reason, in practice.

The hope is that long-term economic integration will progressively reduce these problems, by turning "national spheres of influence" into "European spheres of influence". But at the moment, EU foreign-policy mechanisms (and appointees...) are fairly weak. We'll see what happens after we digest the loss of Britain, which was an extremely vocal (and followed / respected) member on these topics. Maybe we'll finally grow up a bit.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#192

Post by ramshorns »

RustyBucket wrote: post #170
treeman79 wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps avoiding Millions be put in camps and used as cheap source of organ harvesting.

This is a weak argument: Should USA be reigned in as well to avoid millions be put in prisons and used a cheap source of labor?

Yes.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#193

Post by dirtyid »

rz2k wrote: post #155
hnarn wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best predictor for future behavior is past behavior: China is testing the waters, in some cases in a quite literal sense (South China Sea), and you're correct that how the world reacts to Hong Kong and the Xinjiang "re-education camps" will be seen as a vital piece of information in the future when deciding on how to proceed with other "problematic" regions: for example Taiwan, which in the case where strong-armi…

I have sympathy for the statement that lifting 500 million people out of abject, generational poverty ranks among the greatest humanitarian successes in history. At the same time local corruption, and the number of protests against those officials was an enormous problem and seemed to get remarkably little coverage. A mature legal system is the only reliable way to combat problems like corruption. A legal system is m…

Local corruption is the defacto mechanism CCP exploited to pull 500m out of poverty. Deng's entire model is harnessing corruption with bureaucratic incentives to forward development goals. This is posited by Yukon Huang, former World Bank director for China. He notes China is the only country where increased corruption is correlated to increased growth, everywhere else corruption leads to inefficient allocation. Also discussed in depth recently in China's Gilded Age by Yuen Yuen Ang, which breaks down corruption into four categories:

https://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Yuen-...

Chinese corruption focuses on access money (steroids) to coordinate massive development projects and a cadres ability to graft is directly correlated to their projects success. The flip side is pervasive corruption is socially destabilizing as recognize in the 2000s, which is why Xi inaugurated his office with the anticorruption campaign. Yes, there was some power consolidation involved, but most of the effort was genuine - CCDI has investigated close to 2,000,000 officials, even Xi doesn't have that many enemies. Despite some terrible human rights campaigns that affect Your last paragraph hits the nail on the head, western institutions are failing. They don't have to be, but as long as they are, China will be more reassured in it's model.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#194

Post by seanmcdirmid »

RustyBucket wrote: post #170
treeman79 wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps avoiding Millions be put in camps and used as cheap source of organ harvesting.

This is a weak argument: Should USA be reigned in as well to avoid millions be put in prisons and used a cheap source of labor?

Sounds good to me.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#195

Post by dirtyid »

magicsmoke wrote: post #131
blhack wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can't help but imagine how different it would be if the US and EU/Britain (as leads) would have strongly denounced their approach. What? What could the US have done beyond what we did other than all out war? The US response to this was very harsh. We undid 50 years of diplomacy with China, and have started building a sortof SEA equivalent to NATO. Chinese/American relations have probably never been as unfriendly…

I think the dissonance over the US not doing enough is that if the US pulled these moves a decade or two ago, China would have blinked. China not blinking doesn't mean the US isn't doing enough. It means we're living in a world where China doesn't blink anymore. America's absolute influence might still be the same, but its relative influence has fallen.

China doesn't compromise on sovereignty issues, period. If US pulled this 20 years ago, China wouldn't have cooperated on bailing the west out of 08 GFC. Also 20 years ago US bombed Chinese embassy in Belgrade a few years after 3rd Taiwan Strait crisis. That would have been a very different timeline.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#196

Post by seanmcdirmid »

fc373745 wrote: post #49
canada_dry wrote: post #6

What has happened to Hong Kong is a strong canary-in-the-coal-mine indicator for other Chinese territorial disputes [i]. With Hong Kong it was somewhat inevitable but I can't help but imagine how different it would be if the US and EU/Britain (as leads) would have strongly denounced their approach. I suspect in a decade from now the West will be lamenting how Hong Kong was the right opportunity to stifle China's ambi…

playing the devil's advocate The article prefaces by saying this "One way to cement a claim to a disputed territory — and to anger others who think it belongs to them — is to build on it." Then goes onto describe the disputes almost being exclusive between China and the US Navy, and further reinforces that point by saying, "The U.S., the longtime guarantor of freedom of navigation in Asia’s waters..." I'm sorry, but…

> when most of their maritime incidents are almost exclusively against the US Navy?

That isn't true. Some of the dispute involve the Americans, most involve the Vietnamese and Filipinos, and then some from the Indonesians and Malaysians. That only the USA has the resources to keep these disputes from being one sided shouldn't muddy those waters.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#197

Post by seanmcdirmid »

xoxoy wrote: post #100

I suspect we will see China attempt to invade Taiwan sooner rather than later now. In particular I’ve suspected for awhile that China desperately wants to “own” Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) since they’ve been trying to build up their own domestic chip business for awhile and $TSM is the gold standard in chip manufacturing.

It would be very difficult for China with its current resources to take Taiwan and keep its infrastructure and talent intact. If your main battle strategy is to rely on cruise missiles, expect a crater.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#198

Post by shirakawasuna »

treeman79 wrote: post #162
thaumasiotes wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China does need to be rei[]ned in, and we should have started years ago. Why? What would the benefit be? What would the benefit have been?

Perhaps avoiding Millions be put in camps and used as cheap source of organ harvesting.

Claims literally spread by the Falun Gong cult, Adrian Zenz, and NED-funded groups citing both.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#199

Post by AnimalMuppet »

srtjstjsj wrote: post #135
chrisco255 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pax Americana, like Pax Britannica before it. Wonder how much longer that can hold?

Until Pax China.

Between "Pax X" and "Pax Y", there's often a war. The war leaves X weakened to the point that they can't enforce "Pax X" any more. Pax Americana ending probably won't just be because Pax China peacefully superseded it.

Re: Hong Kong mourns the end of its way of life

#200

Post by markvdb »

blhack wrote: post #128
canada_dry wrote: post #6

What has happened to Hong Kong is a strong canary-in-the-coal-mine indicator for other Chinese territorial disputes [i]. With Hong Kong it was somewhat inevitable but I can't help but imagine how different it would be if the US and EU/Britain (as leads) would have strongly denounced their approach. I suspect in a decade from now the West will be lamenting how Hong Kong was the right opportunity to stifle China's ambi…

> I can't help but imagine how different it would be if the US and EU/Britain (as leads) would have strongly denounced their approach. What? What could the US have done beyond what we did other than all out war? The US response to this was very harsh. We undid 50 years of diplomacy with China, and have started building a sortof SEA equivalent to NATO. Chinese/American relations have probably never been as unfriendly…

> What? What could the US have done beyond what we did other than all out war? The US response to this was very harsh.

Signing the TPP could have helped _a lot_. DT gave China _a lot_ of diplomatic leverage there, for free...

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