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With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

economist.com

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Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#191

Post by pydry »

marcosdumay wrote: post #177
samstave wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imported Inputs into a GDP will always be SPOF... Wont they? Like you need to have serious incentives to import all your inputs. Else, you are a leeching economy regardless of the value of your goods (Apple)

My comment was about a single factory. In theory all the factories could import all their inputs, because the commodity that is causing the Dutch disease will offset it, but on the micro-level, a company can take advantage of a low average salary yet high costs market that is characteristic of the disease.

So an upstart smartphone manufacturer could take advantage of the high local salaries to manufacture a local brand of overpriced smartphones solely for the local market?

I'm not sure that's viable nor helpful as an idea when you can just import iPhones from China.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#192

Post by bluGill »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #150
Beatus wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you talking about the world or the US? Living in europe, I‘ve never seen a diesel train and the economics are just fine for electric trains.

There are diesel trains in Europe. They tend to be more on branch lines, though, with the main trunks being electric. (Electrifying every branch is not economic.) In the US, it could still be done (and has), but the economics are not as compelling because the price of diesel is lower.

I'm told that the big railroads in the US have a plan to electrify their main line. It remains a plan because the costs are more high enough that it isn't worth it. If they decide fuel costs will go up by enough they will dust off the plan and electrify.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#193

Post by jeffreyrogers »

pandaman wrote: post #187
jeffreyrogers wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those have diesel engines. You don't know what you're talking about. The electric drive is to make power transmission easier, and yes, to allow for regenerative breaking.

It allows regenerative braking in principle, I don't know if any mining truck actually has one. Imagine the size and weight of a battery to power a 200T truck (total weight up to 385 metric tons) for any significant time. These trucks use induction brakes, which do not give back any energy, for the same reason they use electric motors instead of a gearbox - a lone friction brake for such a heavy machine would be too…

Yeah, you're right. I had two different Komatsu PR things open and one was talking about regenerative braking and the other was for these electric drive trucks. Doesn't look like they have any sort of battery. Just alternators to generate electricity from the diesel engines.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#194

Post by jeffreyrogers »

newacct583 wrote: post #185
jeffreyrogers wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, my point is just that the developing world is going to use a lot of petroleum in order to develop. Mining was just an example of where it's used. No one commenting has refuted that, and the people talking about electric mining trucks don't know what they are talking about and have probably never been to a mine before.

> Sure, my point is just that the developing world is going to use a lot of petroleum in order to develop. And mine was that it doesn't need to. The only reason it needs a ton of oil is if it wants to emulate the US obsession with private transportation, which even the US is getting away from. It's not like Civ 6 here: they don't need to invent the internal combustion engine for themselves.

There is no realistic path to development based on renewables without setting global living standards significantly below current developed world living standards. Just look at the number of countries that are developing. Look at their populations, and assume 50% of those populations get to 50% of European levels of energy use. Now look at the transition to renewables. Also note that 50%+ of "renewables" in Europe is biomass, which is arguably not renewable and environmentally destructive.

The idea that developing countries can develop without increasing global demand for oil is a fairy tale, and impossible to believe by anyone who thinks about the issue for more than a few minutes. Admittedly, there are in theory possible paths that would avoid an increase in fossil fuel demand, but I have never seen someone bring them up when discussing this, nor have I even seen an understanding of the basic problems that need to be circumvented.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#195

Post by hnarn »

apta wrote: post #160
hnarn wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I question how realistic it is for Saudi Arabia to turn into anything like the "tech hub" or "international finance center" or whatever of the area while simultaneously being an Islamist, conservative theocracy that is in many ways still judicially medieval. Even if they pull it off, many people will think twice about coming there. Corruption, bigotry and a close-minded view of the world needs to go first. Look at a…

What does "being an Islamist theocracy" have anything to do against becoming a tech hub or finance center? They're not mutually exclusive in any way. > executed homosexuals Claims like this make it hard to take these comments seriously.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Saudi_Arabia

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#197

Post by newacct583 »

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #194
newacct583 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sure, my point is just that the developing world is going to use a lot of petroleum in order to develop. And mine was that it doesn't need to. The only reason it needs a ton of oil is if it wants to emulate the US obsession with private transportation, which even the US is getting away from. It's not like Civ 6 here: they don't need to invent the internal combustion engine for themselves.

There is no realistic path to development based on renewables without setting global living standards significantly below current developed world living standards. Just look at the number of countries that are developing. Look at their populations, and assume 50% of those populations get to 50% of European levels of energy use. Now look at the transition to renewables. Also note that 50%+ of "renewables" in Europe is…

The scenario is "without oil" and not "based on renewables".

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#198

Post by apta »

hnarn wrote: post #195
apta wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does "being an Islamist theocracy" have anything to do against becoming a tech hub or finance center? They're not mutually exclusive in any way. > executed homosexuals Claims like this make it hard to take these comments seriously.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Saudi_Arabia

Exactly my point. The executions listed there were not done just for homosexuality, but were associated with other crimes including child molestation and murder.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#199

Post by giantrobot »

bluGill wrote: post #137
giantrobot wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains would like to have a word.

Most freight is carried by diesel trains. While it is possible to use electric engines, the ecconmics don't work out and so only a minority of freight is on electric trains.

Diesel-electric trains. They're basically Diesel generators with electric drive motors.

Re: With oil cheap, Arab states cannot balance their books

#200

Post by giantrobot »

ogre_codes wrote: post #155
giantrobot wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains would like to have a word.

With 10s of thousands of miles of lines, it would be pretty monumental to electrify the entire US train system. Considering how efficient modern diesel trains are, That should be pretty low on our list of things to convert. Nuclear trains might make sense with some of the newer reactors... but we know that'll never happen.

Diesel trains are already electric. Their drive motors are electric with big Diesel generators on top. Their efficiency is due to their hybrid nature.
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