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Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have fallen sharply over the last few days

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Re: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have fallen sharply over the last few days

#191

Post by ericd »

unhashable wrote: post #66
defterGoose wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm truly struggling to understand how gold can be censored. Also, left out of this discussion is the fact that gold is actually tangible, divorced from some weird semantic backflips. You can build useful things with it.

Holding Bitcoin is not a semantic backflip. Do you hold the dollars in your bank account? Also: gold can easily be confiscated and it has been before - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 . How much gold do you think you can travel with? Think the TSA would allow even $100k of gold to be carried on your person? Given golds limited supply, why has the price been relatively stable in dollars (which are…

Yes, you can fly with far more than $100k in gold, iirc coin dealers do so on the way to conventions. They typically ask for a private screening.

Re: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have fallen sharply over the last few days

#192

Post by baby »

glofish wrote: post #22
unhashable wrote: post #10

It's a common misconception that Bitcoin is a safe haven. It's not. Not even Gold is a safe haven during a liquidity crisis. In sharp downturns, cash is king. Think of Bitcoin and Gold as call options on the entire global monetary system. If Govs become insolvent, Bitcoin and Gold is there. If the masses lose faith in central banks, Bitcoin and Gold is there. If central banks debase currencies too quickly, Bitcoin an…

bitcoin is not really "there" the same way as gold is. The whole point of gold is that it is a tangible asset. You can hold gold in your pocket or under your mattress and it costs nothing to store it. You can't prove you have bitcoin if you don't have internet access for example. You can't have bitcoin if miners don't run their nodes. Basically, you are depending on a resource in faraway lands to let you "own" what y…

> The whole point of gold is that it is a tangible asset

I fail to see how. I know a number of people who trade gold online and it is definitely not a tangible asset to them.

Even if it was, so what? I really don't get this point. Scarcity is what gives value to gold, if it wasn't then anything tangible would have value.

Re: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have fallen sharply over the last few days

#193

Post by comicjk »

majormajor wrote: post #6
zionic wrote: post #3

I have to say, the crypto market's strong ties to traditional finance in this crash surprise me. I understand selling off stock because of expected corporate losses, I don't understand mass conversions to FIAT especially when "print more money" seems to be the fed's response to this.

My take on the selloff is people looking for liquid cash. Very similar to stockpiling home supplies. People are looking for stuff they can use or trade in the very short term because they don't know how bad it would get. It's a lot harder to do that today with crypto. I haven't seen anyone with strong reason to believe that companies are gonna be that much worse off a year from now than they were a month ago, or for…

The average company a few years from now will probably be as profitable as the average company last year. But that's survivorship bias: some of the companies from last year might not be around anymore, and it's hard to predict which. I think that fear might be driving lower valuations.

Re: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have fallen sharply over the last few days

#194

Post by baby »

ErikAugust wrote: post #11

One of the supposed benefits of holding cryptocurrency that has been peddled is that it is a strong hedge against a down turn in traditional securities. Here we have a new, real data point to the contrary.

it's all correlated and the correlation to link them all is human emotion.

Re: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have fallen sharply over the last few days

#195

Post by baby »

zionic wrote: post #3

I have to say, the crypto market's strong ties to traditional finance in this crash surprise me. I understand selling off stock because of expected corporate losses, I don't understand mass conversions to FIAT especially when "print more money" seems to be the fed's response to this.

If you understand that the market is just a reflection of human emotions, then you understand what happened to the cryptocurrency market. Panic spreads, and it is not rational.

Re: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have fallen sharply over the last few days

#196

Post by baby »

jaltekruse wrote: post #48

I still assume it is possible and likely that something like cryptocurrency will eventually become incredibly valuable, but I see that happening only when technical and social hurdles are overcome to make it as widespread and scalable as the current credit card system for everyday transactions. Unfortunately for current cryptocurrencies, they just don't have what it takes to compete with decades of trust to get every…

take a look at libra.

Re: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have fallen sharply over the last few days

#197

Post by allovernow »

wgjordan wrote: post #32
zionic wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think this is true in a "traditional" bear market where companies are doing poorly. I don't think is applies when the entire market is panic selling to acquire supplies.

This is the first bear market (drop of 20% from a recent peak in broad-based index) Bitcoin or the crypto-currency market has ever seen, 'traditional' or not, so it's really uncharted territory.

This. Everyone is speaking so authoritatively as though they knew crypto was not a hedge. This is the first real such test that crypto has seen. Yes, it appears to have failed, but no one could have predicted this with any certainty.

Re: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have fallen sharply over the last few days

#198

Post by arcticbull »

unhashable wrote: post #106
anon73044 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This! Bus factor and too many single points of failure. How many lost wallets are out there with a few hundred or thousands of coins from before Bitcoin hit $100?

Single points of failure? Bitcoin is decentralized, like the internet. It’s designed to explicitly avoid points of failure and trusting of node participants. Lots of Bitcoin has been lost. Good key hygiene should not be taken lightly. What is unfortunate for those losers is fortunate for Bitcoin. As the supply of lost Bitcoin increases the overall scarcity of the asset increases.

There is no single point of failure for a bank account. If you die suddenly, your assigns can petition the court for the assets.

With bitcoin the single point of failure is always your key. That's why every random walk down the timeline leads to 100% of keys lost over the full course of time.

Re: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have fallen sharply over the last few days

#199

Post by arcticbull »

unhashable wrote: post #150
Ididntdothis wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Only the people making this bet will be affected if Bitcoin fails” Which means that it’s just a gamble of some insiders.

Does it feel like I’m arguing that point? I’m not. Speculation is by definition gambling. Investing is also speculation. You have a thesis, and you make returns if that plays out. You lose capital when you are wrong. Also, I'm not sure what you mean by "insiders" - most of the world can purchase Bitcoin, the software is OSS, the network inspectable, and the evolving thesis and narrative is fully available online. Bit…

Bitcoin may be the people's money but it's price in fiat is controlled by shady cabals like Bitfinex/Tether. It may be the people's money but it certainly isn't the people's value. Dividing those two is a worthwhile exercise. Hiding behind the networks inspectability minimizes all the shady participants that the open network provides for.

Re: Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices have fallen sharply over the last few days

#200

Post by arcticbull »

unhashable wrote: post #151
raverbashing wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes I'm sure a 1T transaction in bitcoins won't trigger any suspicion by anyone and will not cause people to try and track the authors of the transaction. I'm also sure trying to cash that out is going to be as easy as taking money out of an ATM Unless you "cash out" in USDT (tether) or something similarly fake

Obviously $1T is meant to by hyperbole. Still, it’s not that outlandish. $500M transferred for less than $400 on 7/29/19 - https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1155808847908544512?s... There are many of these, and they are increasing. Cashing out large sums is done over the counter, not through regular on/off ramps (as in your ATM example). Bitcoin is legal in the US, so I'm not sure how suspicion plays into it. Th…

No billionaire is going to pay more than $400 to instantly wire money either, though, as to your point, they play by different rules. Even HSBC offers free wires in the US.

Also, it's $250M now due to the 50% drop in the last half hour, so in a way, they paid $250M for that transfer.

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