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Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

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Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#191

Post by zaroth »

Traster wrote: post #21
ArtWomb wrote: post #7

I believe this was released as part of Tesla's Autopilot hiring announcement. More details here: https://www.tesla.com/autopilotAI Definitely someone's dream job ;) I particularly like the applicant query: "Tell us, what extraordinary work you have done?"

Two issues, first: I thought fully autonomous driving was meant to be done by now? Second, don't Tesla & SpaceX have a reputation for being a terrible place to work, with Musk expecting everyone to be working as hard (or harder) than him, and firing people in weird and capricious ways.

> I thought fully autonomous driving was meant to be done by now?

That is not what Elon predicted at Autonomy Day last April. He thought they would be feature-complete by the end of 2019, which is to say, that all the basic code paths necessary for best case city driving would be functional.

If you've done software development, you understand that getting to "feature-complete" is different from "code-complete", which is also different from "Beta", which is different from "GA". Those are each progressively later stages in the software development / release cycle.

Feature complete is merely the day that you can say that there is some functional code in place for all of the code paths that you expect to write. You would expect to be able to do an internal demo showing all the functionality working in the "happy case" at that point. Usually QA has not really even begun in earnest at this point. It is by no means the point where development is "done", which is for FSD in fact, approximately, never.

Code complete isn't always distinguished from feature complete, but in my experience, code complete would contemplate negative testing, error handling, and alternative processing modes which might not have been implemented at the point of "feature complete". Code complete typically signifies that from that point forward only bug fixes will be added into the next release.

Some projects can reasonable be expected to remain in testing, validation, and certification for several years after the point of "code complete".

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#192

Post by slg »

daniel_iversen wrote: post #172
heavyset_go wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans, and there is no evidence that this generation of machine learning will be able to tackle this problem sufficiently. All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide. On the other hand, there is a lot of hype and promises being made without the results to back them…

Isn’t there already a mounting amount of statistics of accidents of self driving cars vs manual ones and the difference is night and day that the self driving ones are statistically safer?

No. There is not yet enough data to say that Tesla's or anyone else's current technology is better than human drivers. You likely need tens or hundreds of billions of miles to prove that. However since accidents are a very low probability event, it would take substantially less data to prove that this technology is drastically less safe than human drivers and that hasn't shown itself in the data either. Either side that points to specific numbers as proof either doesn't understand the statistics or is intentionally trying to mislead you.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#193

Post by pcurve »

heavyset_go wrote: post #160
krm01 wrote: post #140

It still strikes me why so many people are still against a future with self driving cars. Sure, people throughout history are scared of change & new tech. But if you look at this video and compare the amount of stuff the camera catches AND processes, with the things you are seeing & processing, it's really hard for me to see me being better at it than a computer. The reality of driving (as a human) is that most of it…

There's no evidence that computers are any better at driving than humans, and there is no evidence that this generation of machine learning will be able to tackle this problem sufficiently. All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide. On the other hand, there is a lot of hype and promises being made without the results to back them…

"All signs point to driving requiring an understanding of what's going on around you, which this generation of ML does not provide."

That may be very true, but are most of us fully present in the act of driving ? Where the ML is deficient we can make up for it by making the infrastructure more robust.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#194

Post by seltzered_ »

occamrazor wrote: post #182
daniel_iversen wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t there already a mounting amount of statistics of accidents of self driving cars vs manual ones and the difference is night and day that the self driving ones are statistically safer?

Self driving cars killed one pedestrian in 10 million miles driven, about an order of magnitude worse than humans

Is that data on self driving cars or assisted driving? I think disengagement statistics also need to be factored in.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#195

Post by greglindahl »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #187
Topgamer7 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It surprised me how long it took it to realize the road was wet.

How do they assess stopping distances without accounting for surface wetness? Is grip established through traction control systems somehow.

The wheels have to slip to figure out that the roads are slick. Even then it can be difficult to tell whether or not you just drove over some bumps.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#197

Post by arexxbifs »

_ea1k wrote: post #66
Traster wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two issues, first: I thought fully autonomous driving was meant to be done by now? Second, don't Tesla & SpaceX have a reputation for being a terrible place to work, with Musk expecting everyone to be working as hard (or harder) than him, and firing people in weird and capricious ways.

I've gotten the impression that the "firing people in weird and capricious ways" bit has been greatly exaggerated. I do think anyone taking this has to expect grueling and challenging work. The job description practically demands that.

I don't doubt for a second that people like Musk (and before him for example Steve Jobs and Jack Tramiel) can be very demanding and sometimes difficult to work for. I also don't doubt for a second that a lot of the stories told have a sour grapes quality to them: If you're good at the kind of job they're offering, you can easily find employment somewhere else and you're also probably smart enough to move on of your own volition, before being capriciously fired.

I worked for an erratic, sociopathic boss once. I quit after about six months. Unless you're a masochist or truly have no other options, you'll soon realize it's not worth whatever extra money or prestige the company name might possibly come with.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#198

Post by yathern »

jrockway wrote: post #6
willvarfar wrote: post #4

Which sensor has primacy? radar, lidar or camera? I recall it mentioned somewhere that, after a well publicized tragedy hitting the side of a white truck on a bright day, Tesla was moving to radar? And yet a lot of the cues this awesome video shows seems to be camera-based line detection etc?

If you look at the overlay, the algorithm seems extra paranoid about the following aspects: HIGH_BEAM, BLINDED, RAINING, TIRE_SPRAY, which all sound like camera weaknesses, not lidar/radar weaknesses. My guess is that this is camera-based still. Also interesting is the vision fps of ~13. That's 75ms latency.

75ms sounds like a lot, but it isn't so bad - average human reaction time is about 200ms. Source:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4456887/

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#199

Post by starpilot »

felipemnoa wrote: post #183
brian_ wrote: post #163

If Teslas navigate with cameras, does that mean a Wil E Coyote style tunnel painting will actually work?

If done right it may even work against humans.

I think this is under-discussed. People bring up how self-driving cars can't deal with unwinnable situations, like crashing into a school bus vs. an old lady. Why is this scenario considered novel? Human drivers cannot avoid these either.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#200

Post by axguscbklp »

kickopotomus wrote: post #169
axguscbklp wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I thought fully autonomous driving was meant to be done by now? Musk was bullshitting when he made that prediction. Maybe he did it because he had bought his own bullshit. Personally I think what's more likely is that he was cynically conning people. In reality, I think no-one is anywhere close to fully self driving cars. I would be surprised if we saw fully self driving cars any time in the next 50 years. The whole…

I think 50 years is being overly pessimistic. Self-driving in temperate climates is probably pretty close ( [1]: https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/16/waymos-robotaxi-pilot-surp... [2]: https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/10/20907901/waymo-driverles...

The thing is, I see no way to have full self driving without AGI. And I don't think humanity is anywhere close to developing AGI. Without AGI you can have level 4++ self driving, maybe, but not level 5.
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