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Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#191

Post by mitchellgoffpc »

xkjkls wrote: post #147
mitchellgoffpc wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, short interest in Tesla has decreased significantly over the past six months, from over 40% of the float in June 2019, to under 20% in December 2019. As more and more short sellers choose (or are forced) to close their positions, they drive the value of the stock higher and make it harder for other shorts to maintain their positions. With 20% of the float still sold short, I personally don’t think $TSLA has hit…

If they are still a company still trading at the multiples they are, short interest is never going to be 1-2%

Yeah probably true, I did say “approaches” though! My guess is that short interest will eventually drop below 5% over the next couple years if Tesla continues to perform well and grow their revenue stream, but we’ll see.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#192

Post by rjdagost »

xkjkls wrote: post #169
woodandsteel wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it has overcome the problems that lead to the losses, and it is set in a number of ways to be highly profitable this year and into the future.

This company has been unprofitable for ten consecutive years as a public company. That’s a record. I’ll hold my breath on people saying the future will be different.

This is what a speculative bubble looks like. Enjoy popcorn on the sidelines until people start pricing in financial reality. Manias sometimes take a while to fizzle out. Year over year revenue growth is actually flat to slightly negative for the past 2 quarters. If top-line revenue growth continues to stall out, that's often a catalyst for corrections.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#193

Post by Rebelgecko »

mdasen wrote: post #136
stellar678 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno. My bullish view has more to do with Tesla using the vehicle market as an entry point to the broader energy market. If the Tesla cars start throwing off profit and make the company self-sustaining, their vertically-integrated energy thing opens the kind of insanely huge global energy market. They're not just going to eat Ford's lunch - but also Chevron, Saudi Aramco and your local energy company.

I think you've hit the nail on the head for the bullish Tesla case. I don't think there's enough profits in the automotive industry for Tesla to be worth $105-120B. Sure, Toyota is worth more, but basically no one else is and Tesla is a long time from being the next Toyota and I think the odds of them becoming the next Toyota have to be below 50% and are realistically probably more like 5-10%. That's not a dig at Tes…

>This comes with costs like running higher than you can actually charge for so you don't get outages, employing a lot of people for emergency response and storms, etc.

That's an interesting point. During/after the worst of the recent California drought years, some water companies had to raise their rates because people were so good at saving water. Because so many of the utility company's expenses are fixed costs, their savings from not distributing as much water weren't proportional with their reduction in revenue.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#194

Post by primrose »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #187
primrose wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you prefer the Bolt? From my perspective the Bolt is: -Ugly -Less safe -Slower -Doesn't drive itself, or will be capable in the future Worst of all the Bolt's infotainment system is horrible. https://www.chevrolet.com/content/dam/chevrolet/na/us/englis...

I preferred the Bolt because it had similar and adequate range, adequate recharge capability, better drive, felt substantially roomier in the interior, and I preferred the higher seating. I have no use for an infotainment system in any vehicle (give me a hotspot and I'll bring my own devices). I disliked the Tesla center mounted tablet console dashboard, though that's subjective. I don't think the Tesla drives itself…

> would be a mild negative at the current level of self-driving tech maturity

Tesla's more or less take over on the freeway. They are also on their way to mastering traffic lights.

> center mounted tablet console dashboard Yeah, that's a little weird.

> the Bolt had some useful driver assist packages for safety, though they are upgrades

Tesla's are the safest cars on the road now.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#195

Post by opportune »

tempsy wrote: post #100
xkjkls wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are also several people I know who have done so at a craps table. That doesn't make it a sustainable or recommendable activity.

I call BS. There's no casino game outside of a slot machine that someone could play that could turn a few hundred dollars into $1M in a gambling session. This difference you're missing is the upside is asymmetric with options. Your losses are capped but your gains are essentially unlimited. In a typical casino game the house edge is >50%. If you're turning $500 into $1M at a blackjack or craps table you're cheating.

Gains are only unlimited with calls

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#196

Post by gamblor956 »

aguyfromnb wrote: post #14
gamblor956 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More discounts, marketing expenses, and spending on the Chinese factory.

They guided for $2.5 billion in capex, and only spent $1.3 billion.

Right, but we're not talking about quarterly guidance, we're talking about YoY comparisons.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#197

Post by speedgoose »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #162
40acres wrote: post #109

The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market…

Other car manufacturers are missing what makes Tesla do so well. It's a lot of things, really. Range, performance, the hope of self-driving, the supercharging network (Which is much bigger than people think!), and of course, the fact that they look like normal cars. Most other EVs like the Leaf are either incredibly lacking in range and performance, or they're incredibly ugly like the BMW i3. Then you've got cars lik…

Many EVs have a good enough range and more than good enough performances. Sure a ipace or etron don't drive as far as a equivalent Tesla, but sometimes you don't need that.

Also, we are many to love the i3 look. It's a matter of tastes.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#198

Post by [deleted] »

opportune wrote: post #195
tempsy wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I call BS. There's no casino game outside of a slot machine that someone could play that could turn a few hundred dollars into $1M in a gambling session. This difference you're missing is the upside is asymmetric with options. Your losses are capped but your gains are essentially unlimited. In a typical casino game the house edge is >50%. If you're turning $500 into $1M at a blackjack or craps table you're cheating.

Gains are only unlimited with calls

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#199

Post by ninth_ant »

40acres wrote: post #109

The bull case for Tesla is clear. Aside from Nissan with the Leaf, who recently loss their galvanizing CEO and who's market cap has tanked since, what major automaker has anywhere near the success of Tesla with EV? No doubt execution has been an issue in the past, but recent sales trends, completion of gigafactory, and Chinese expansion show that they are on the right trend. Tesla's were confined to the luxury market…

What you describe would be the “bull case” dozens of billions in valuation ago. Right now we are quite disconnected from that, in my analysis.

To justify their current valuation, the “bull case” is for them to dominate the entire automative industry (not just the EV segment) and do an Amazon-like turnaround of losses into profitability.

Anything short of that, their valuation is ludicrous.

Re: Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

#200

Post by kbenson »

primrose wrote: post #194
throwaway5752 wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I preferred the Bolt because it had similar and adequate range, adequate recharge capability, better drive, felt substantially roomier in the interior, and I preferred the higher seating. I have no use for an infotainment system in any vehicle (give me a hotspot and I'll bring my own devices). I disliked the Tesla center mounted tablet console dashboard, though that's subjective. I don't think the Tesla drives itself…

> would be a mild negative at the current level of self-driving tech maturity Tesla's more or less take over on the freeway. They are also on their way to mastering traffic lights. > center mounted tablet console dashboard Yeah, that's a little weird. > the Bolt had some useful driver assist packages for safety, though they are upgrades Tesla's are the safest cars on the road now.

> Tesla's are the safest cars on the road now.

Eh, I imagine that depends on how actively you use the autopilot and auto unpark features. I know they don't want to cede the frontrunner status of that technology, but it still feels like a risky gambit for tesla and for its customers.

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