191–200 of 348 posts
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Well, the party has stated loud and clear that China will fight America (and the evil West) no matter what, at all costs and to the very end.
Soviet communists also used to say this.
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> Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example. Except in Tunisia, which is the one success story from that time period. It's now a functioning democracy. Of course the real test is how it does over the long term, but at least so far it's an example of real change in the region.
Revolutions don't produce democracies.
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History is littered with graveyards upon graveyards of violent struggles for independance that didn't end up so well. Meanwhile, in the modern times, peaceful protests can being down even nuclear armed superpowers as we've seen in the 80s. Take a look https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebell...
And peaceful protestors can also be massacred and completely fail to bring about any change. Peaceful protests can work sometimes. Other times they do nothing. Same with armed resistance. Declaring one or the other to be the only possible way to bring about change is in direct contradiction to the facts.
Can you give an example? Every example I can think of right now that had a massacre of innocent protestors and no armed struggle either led to some change later down the road (eg. galvanizing the movement, reforms, or total collapse of the opressor), or became a major problem for the oppressor later down the track. A massacre is not that easily forgotten.
Just some random examples: The Polish protests of 1970, resulted in 42 people killed and protestors were overpowered by tanks and military, but the killings arguably accelerated the popularity of the movement. Look up the story of "Janek Wiśniewski" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janek_Wi%C5%9Bniewski
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> Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example. Except in Tunisia, which is the one success story from that time period. It's now a functioning democracy. Of course the real test is how it does over the long term, but at least so far it's an example of real change in the region.
Revolutions don't produce democracies.
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> Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example. Except in Tunisia, which is the one success story from that time period. It's now a functioning democracy. Of course the real test is how it does over the long term, but at least so far it's an example of real change in the region.
Revolutions don't produce democracies.
In more modern times, revolutions have pretty much resulted in more democracies than at any other time period.
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China relocated millions of urban youth to country side reeducation camps during the cultural revolution. If push comes to shove, it's well within the capability of the CPC to relocate the problem population in HK. The fact is, Beijing has not used any physical levers yet.
China's cultural revolution occurred at a very different time geopolitically. Currently, China is attempting to establish itself as the new bipolar alternative to the United States. This cascades into a lot of different things, but ultimately collapses down into trust. Just as the Cold War did. Counterparties and potential allies are less likely to ally themselves with you, if they see you're intractable even with yo…
As for political trust, difference in values and great power security competition with US means the west is broadly not going to trust China regardless. China's revisionist vision for existing framework is to pivot away from rules and values (that benefit the west) and focus on mutually beneficial development. It's an extension of old ASEAN tributary philosophy, get rich, try not to meddle in other's internal affairs. And I think the lack of response on XinJiang means that pivot is working. Regardless, Chinese trade-GDP is only 18% (~14% accounting foreign value-add), it has not been an export economy since late 2000s, apart from select strategic products like airplane engines and silicon, China can survive without Western trade.
I think the real issue is Taiwan, and on that front the damage has already been done, which is the real loss to CPC. China wants Taiwan by 2050, I think HK removed cultural reunification off the table. There's only economics or war now which is concerning.
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I would argue that Beijing didn't anticipate the resolve of the protestors, but they would certainly know about and endorse Lam's backdown. China is happy to play the long game - they apply pressure to HK to bring them inline with China, people protest, they back of a little, but not all the way. They wait ... then apply pressure again. The idea is that by 2047 when the 'one country, two systems' arrangement expires,…
That sounds likely. When Britain colonized Hong Kong, it took them more than 70+ years to pacify the people. Especially after the ‘67 protests, that resulted in 51 deaths. China is hoping the next generation will be more friendly. Like how the people of Macau are.
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It is not an amnesty. It is a necessary condition for a return to peace. There is zero incentive to stop for the protesters if they are going to be jailed for protesting. The alternative is an ever escalating oppression-protest cycle.
The incentive is to avoid the PRC Army.
> The alternative is an ever escalating oppression-protest cycle.
Anyway, I don't believe recreating June 4 is a wise move for PRC at this time. The whole world is watching.
Don't believe in her word yet. Her word is "move a motion" when the Legislative Council resume in October, and the Security Minister, John Lee Ka-Chiu, submit the withdrawal to LegCo. At that point, the pro-Beijing LegCo member can reject such motion and continue the third reading of the bill and Beijing win. The other possibility is where we, the Hongkonger, continue demanding the rest of the four major demands, and…
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> Same story everywhere - nothing much changed after the Arab spring protests, for example. Except in Tunisia, which is the one success story from that time period. It's now a functioning democracy. Of course the real test is how it does over the long term, but at least so far it's an example of real change in the region.
Revolutions don't produce democracies.