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Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

arstechnica.com

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Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#191

Post by 0815test »

kuzehanka wrote: post #150
leesec wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 90% I am talking about is a 12~ mile stretch of poorly maintained highway near Detroit usually in stop and go traffic and yes I am paying attention. I wouldn't quantify the value in real money. I would say the main benefit provides is that I have much less decision fatigue and am less stressed after my commute. I also don't care how fast I really get there anymore since I just optimize for less stress, and my tri…

> and yes I am paying attention ...Then what is the point of that system? Tesla's 'self driving' is incredibly dangerous because it puts the driver in a set of conditions that make it very difficult to maintain attention on the road. And yet the driver must be able to take over from the 'self driving' system with subsecond warning if things go awry. That's not value adding, that's a huge risk. I would not use that sy…

What's incredibly dangerous is thinking of this sort of system as "self-driving". But a car that can make most of the low-level driving decisions for the user, such as attempting to steer itself to stay centered in the lane, is going to make for a safer driving experience. It's just incredibly idiotic to market this sort of advanced driver assist as "self-driving" or "the car driving itself", and as something that allows the driver to lose focus; much of the controversy about Tesla is due to them having done exactly this in the past, and in some cases still doing it.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#193

Post by mikeash »

threeseed wrote: post #162
mikeash wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A system with lane keeping and traffic-aware cruise control corresponds pretty well to a simple two or three-axis airplane autopilot that just holds heading and altitude.

Tesla makes cars not planes. And they do so for the general public not just for pilots. And so it's appropriate that you use the general public definition of autopilot. Which is a fully automated, hands free system.

People keep saying that but I don’t buy it. For example, “to do something on autopilot” is a common idiom meaning that you did something reflexively without thinking, often with bad results.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#194

Post by paulddraper »

Phlarp wrote: post #171
paulddraper wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unless some roads are more susceptible to accidents than others By chance do you happen to live somewhere without icy roads?

I live in Minnesota and have my entire life. I hope very much that self driving cars lead to a more sane response to icy conditions, which is to not drive. If the vehicles are in a position to enforce that at a technical level then all the better.

I agree. I was simply pointing out that "unless some roads are more susceptible to accidents than others" certainly happens, very frequently.

But I too am hopeful that machines are better than human drivers in all scenarios.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#195

Post by justtopost »

abbbacccus wrote: post #145

I am still trying to figure out what started and sustained the enormous self-driving car hype of the last few years. I understand why people who don't know much about technology would buy into it, but I don't understand why so many relatively tech-savvy people have bought into it and why huge amounts of money have been invested into it. It should be obvious - and should have been obvious when the hype started, as wel…

We desprately want it to be true, so we ignore the truth long enough to try earnastly to make it so. It the brave and ignorant charge of the new generation. Which begs the question; Is it enough to mean well and act in earnst, or is ethics reserved for those who have the luxury of self-reflection?

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#196

Post by whttheuuu »

pjkundert wrote: post #23
whttheuuu wrote: post #8

ITT: people who think they know better than the company that has been working on this stuff day in and day out for years lol.

... working on this stuff day and night ... —- in California . I’ve been driving for 40+ years, millions of km, 1/2 during winter. Now, Elon is a Saskatchewan boy, so he should know better. Perhaps he’s forgotten. Winter driving is at best 1/2 vision dependent, often much less. Many times, you have to actively ignore your vision (everything you see is “moving” sideways). Quite often, you’re modulating your throttle t…

You realize humans drive with just vision, right?

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#197

Post by krapp »

whttheuuu wrote: post #196
pjkundert wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... working on this stuff day and night ... —- in California . I’ve been driving for 40+ years, millions of km, 1/2 during winter. Now, Elon is a Saskatchewan boy, so he should know better. Perhaps he’s forgotten. Winter driving is at best 1/2 vision dependent, often much less. Many times, you have to actively ignore your vision (everything you see is “moving” sideways). Quite often, you’re modulating your throttle t…

You realize humans drive with just vision, right?

> You realize humans drive with just vision, right?

If that's the case, why do cars have horns?

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#198

Post by rightbyte »

whttheuuu wrote: post #196
pjkundert wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... working on this stuff day and night ... —- in California . I’ve been driving for 40+ years, millions of km, 1/2 during winter. Now, Elon is a Saskatchewan boy, so he should know better. Perhaps he’s forgotten. Winter driving is at best 1/2 vision dependent, often much less. Many times, you have to actively ignore your vision (everything you see is “moving” sideways). Quite often, you’re modulating your throttle t…

You realize humans drive with just vision, right?

You forgot balance, sound and vibrations.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#199

Post by KKKKkkkk1 »

Animats wrote: post #49

Waymo keeps plugging away. Each year, for the last few years, the number of miles between disconnects they report to the CA DMV has doubled. Three more doublings, and that number will be bigger than average miles between accidents for human drivers. Then they can ship a product. Nobody else is even close. This problem is slowly being solved, by normal engineering practices. The "fake it til you make it" players are b…

You should take Waymo's numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. They are very selective about which disengagements they report. Here are the details from their 2017 letter to the DMV:

This report covers disengagements following the California DMV definition, which means “a deactivation of the autonomous mode when a failure of the autonomous technology is detected or when the safe operation of the vehicle requires that the autonomous vehicle test driver disengage the autonomous mode and take immediate manual control of the vehicle.” Section 227.46 of Article 3.7 (Autonomous Vehicles) of Title 13, Division 1, Chapter 1, California Code of Regulations.

Waymo has developed a robust process to collect, analyze and evaluate disengages for this report. We set disengagement thresholds conservatively for our public road testing. The vast majority of disengagements are not related to safety. Our test drivers routinely transition into and out of autonomous mode many times throughout the day, and the self-driving vehicle’s computer hands over control to the driver in many situations that do not involve a failure of the autonomous technology and do not require an immediate takeover of control by the driver.

To help evaluate the safety significance of disengagements, Waymo employs a powerful simulator program. In Waymo’s simulation, our team can “replay” each incident and predict the behavior of our self-driving car if the driver had not taken control of it, as well as the behavior and positions of other road users in the vicinity (such as pedestrians, cyclists, and other vehicles). Our engineers use this data to refine and improve the software to ensure the self-driving car performs safely.

https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/42aff875-7ab1-4115...

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#200

Post by dx034 »

zaroth wrote: post #88
FireBeyond wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At least Tesla has an actual product you can buy? What self driving product do they have? Elon's "Oh yeah, we will have full self driving coast to coast in [8 months]" is horseshit to the point of "How is he allowed to say this on an earnings call?" Other competitors, widely recognized to be ahead of Tesla estimate 5, more likely 10 YEARS. Coast to coast? Your Tesla will navigate a Pittsburgh winter storm on poor r…

My wife’s car has a similar long list of “features” (Mercedes DISTRONIC package with active lane keeping) and it is nothing even remotely comparable to driving my TM3 with autopilot. Those cars do not steer themselves. The difference between having to steer the car and not having to steer the car is extreme. It totally changes the way you drive. Instead of looking down your lane and keeping the car centered, you scan…

Active Lane assist features also steer themselves? At least for all VW brands they do (VW, Audi, Seat etc). Pretty sure the Mercedes active lane keeping does the same. They just don't sell it as an autopilot.
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