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The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

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Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#191
post #180

Here's the big reason I've gotten skeptical about blockchain: it seems like very few people are excited about actually using it. Almost everyone talking about it is excited about getting rich from trading currencies or starting a blockchain-based company. And plenty of people are excited about a grand vision for how it might transform society one day, or how it might solve problems they think other people might have.…

People were pretty excited about using Bitcoin to buy drugs, but it turns out you need a more stable and convenient currency even for drug dealers to be interested. That was the high water mark of consumer interest as far as I've seen. Everything else is just intrigue driven by the get-rich-quick aspect.

I'll say that for that category they haven't lost interest. Although many places have moved to monero for obvious reasons. They don't care too much they can just exchange it immediately. That industry REQUIRES that payments can't be stoppped/tracked so decentralization makes perfect sense here. Most industries don't have that requirement, and usually benefit from centralized systems.

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#192
post #17

In all seriousness, what are the advantages Blockchain has over a public SQL database with limited reads and writes that also maintains a public transaction history? Cause when I hear people talk about the problems Blockchains solves (outside of cryptocurrency which is a whole other topic), I don't see what advantages Blockchain has over that. A public SQL database isn't the most "clean" solution, but it'll save ever…

Maybe a different but related question worth asking is: what does a blockchain accomplish that cryptographically signed audit logs in a centralized database don't? Setting aside the specific technical details, in concept a database of cryptographically signed audit logs and a blockchain aren't so different - blockchain adds decentralization and a trust/truth resolution formula, at the cost of a different set of scala…

The above, but published and witnessed (and signed) by others; I think that's often called a 'sigwit' system as shorthand.

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#193

Here's the big reason I've gotten skeptical about blockchain: it seems like very few people are excited about actually using it. Almost everyone talking about it is excited about getting rich from trading currencies or starting a blockchain-based company. And plenty of people are excited about a grand vision for how it might transform society one day, or how it might solve problems they think other people might have.…

I thought the blockchain technology had the potential to help financial sector. Not the virtual currency itself but there are a lot of agreements, transactions and settlements which are done in a untrustworthy environment which makes it slow and resulting in settlements [0]. I thought this is also the reason why it takes so long to transfer money from one bank to another. I thought these processes could benefit from blockchains and smart contracts. Basically speeding up the whole process not requiring the banks to trust anyone [1].

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Payment_system

[1] http://cjel.law.columbia.edu/preliminary-reference/2016/deve...

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#194
I feel like I'm missing something. The innovation of Bitcoin, which I grant is interesting, was in solving the game theoretical aspects of maintaining a trust-less distributed public ledger. It could be relied upon and used by anyone, and was under the control of no individual or group of entities.

The core of the game theoretical solution was the creation of a digital token which (miraculously) was purported to be useful as a general purpose currency. (i.e. it could at least theoretically have value, and built in scarcity.)

To take control of the distributed ledger would require the expenditure of significant resources, and the ultimate result would be the attacker would gain some control over the ledger. If the attack was successful enough to do this, the assumption is it would destroy the value of the currency, which the attacker needs to stay high to realize any return on the attack.

Somehow Satoshi and early adopters bootstrapped this system early enough, and did enough social engineering, for it to take off.

It's not clear that the value of the tokens needs to stay high to provide incentives to the miners to continue mining. A catastrophic loss in the value of bitcoin would cause the shakeout of many miners. But the system might remain as secure as before. Meaning, I don't understand if the incentive system works to maintain proof of work method for maintaining the integrity of the ledger, if a token does not have significant value, in another realm.

The problem I see with other blockchain systems, is that the bizarre economic speculation we see happening in the crypto currency space needs to happen to boost the price enough to make it worth mining.

I could see a privately used blockchain being used between largish entities that are "frenemies." For example financial institutions the don't fully trust each other creating a pool of entities that incentivizes the members to act collectively to prevent cheating. In that case, it's using the cryptographically secured ledger as the "truth." Kind of like using a permanent escrow service. I have no idea whether this is an efficient way to solve this problem. Do banks really have disputes about the actual value of accounts relative to each other that they currently have no simple way to resolve?

This case would not need the tokens, and would not need miners. It would be a way of distributing the trust aspects to a wider group, but not to the public.

In the wider world my intuition is that a successful, trust-less, distributed ledger requires the kind of current fantastic waste of the who crypto-coin proof of work system.

If a given crypto currency project can't get their public blockchain to be secured in a pretty damn close to trust-less manner, the vexing problems of trust, when it comes to keeping track of debts and assets on distributed system, are not solved.

To see the problem with Bitcoin, think about the actual cost per transaction, if you include mining costs. I remember seeing estimates of $30-$50 per transaction. That is horrifying, because the majority of that cost is wasted electricity. Currently, the majority of the cost of a bitcoin transaction is being borne by either the miners, or the speculators who are required to keep new money coming in to the system. (Otherwise, miners selling their block rewards could crash the price.)

So, I think there is a great confusion in "marketplace of hype". The hype, the "sizzle" comes from the dramatic climb in price of Bitcoin and cousins. Since it became clear to the hypesters that Bitcoin had virtually no utility as a currency, they decided to extract the "blockchain" element to carry the expectations of investors. Bitcoin and the like do have real utility as an almost perfect vehicle for pure speculation, for which there is perennial human demand.

I would love to hear if someone can point out something I'm missing here!

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I want to donate money to WikiLeaks Trustworthiness of Wikileaks aside, do you think that's a $500 billion market? Donating to activist organizations?

https://qz.com/775159/theres-a-500-billion-remittance-market... "Worldwide, 230 million people send $500 billion in remittances each year, primarily using firms like Western Union, Moneygram, and RIA, which together control 1.1 million retail locations and account for more than 25% of the world’s annual remittance volume."

That's not an answer to the question above...

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#196
post #19

I just have been at OSCON, and they were talking about blockchain all the time, blockchain this, blockchain that, private blockchain, enterprise blockchain, blockchain plus this thing and blockchain on top of that thing. But still I couldn't figure out or find any explanation how anything of it would be useful for the member of the public, and indeed how it can work sustainably without the hype that would drive the c…

blockchain is useful outside the context of cryptocurrencies because it represents a verifiable chain of custody. For example, imagine how blockchain could solve the problem of a patient who has control of their health records. In the current system we have an issue where anytime you move somewhere away from your doctor, the new doctor you see has to retrieve records directly from your doctor because there is no way…

> blockchain is useful outside the context of cryptocurrencies because it represents a verifiable chain of custody.

That's like saying "rockets are useful because they allow to go to other galaxies faster". True enough, but going to other planets involved some technical details which current rockets do not exactly solve.

So, blockchain does represent verifyable chain of custody. But why this chain of custody is good for storing my health records (especially given that it's public)? How it can be guaranteed that there always be miners ready to carry my health info around? Who will be paying those miners and why it would be cheaper and more convenient than storing the info at regular data store? Right now miners' investments are essentially paid by hype that cryptocoins always raise. Once that stops - and it has to stop - who'll be paying it?

> Now imagine what happens if your doctor dies

It looks like you are arguing for personal data portability, but what this has to do with blockchain and it's properties? Why blockchain specifically is better here? Why not just requiring my health provider to allow me to access and regularly backup all health data they have?

> And something that blockchain could fix better than just having some federally regulated centralized medical record repository

I haven't seen any indication why it's true, could you explain why it is the case? I do not consider situation like "US federal government collapses", because in this case there would be no internet, no electricity, no working major hospitals and having up-to-date information would be not super-important because I'd be too busy trying to stay alive and fend off looters trying to steal my canned food reserve. In the normal everyday situation where we have functioning (as well or poorly as it is now) federal and local governments, why is it better?

> Blockchain allows you to maintain personal and private control of your records,

How? As far as I understand, once something is integrated into the blockchain, it is unmodifyable and accessible to all (well, maybe in encrypted form but still, keys can be stolen too) - how can I control it? Bitcoin theft proved that you can't really control your coins if somebody gets to your keys, and you can not reverse transactions once they are approved - actually, that's one of the design features. So how would I exercise such control exactly?

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#197
post #80
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't you do the same thing with a simple chain of hashs a la version control?? Why would you need distributed consensus on a patient's health record. My understanding is that Blockchains only make sense in a low trust distributed environment... If you have that low of trust in your doctor it doesn't even make sense to show up.

I think it starts to make sense if you can hold your data and only it share it using hashes of that data without exposing it. For example, I could hold the private key to my DNA, where each strand would be hashed allowing me to share portions of my DNA data with companies without sharing the entire thing. And it makes sense to do that over a public ledger.

> And it makes sense to do that over a public ledger.

Why? It makes much more sense to keep the data to yourself, I do not see any advantage in making it public and intermingling it with data about other people.

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#198
post #19

I just have been at OSCON, and they were talking about blockchain all the time, blockchain this, blockchain that, private blockchain, enterprise blockchain, blockchain plus this thing and blockchain on top of that thing. But still I couldn't figure out or find any explanation how anything of it would be useful for the member of the public, and indeed how it can work sustainably without the hype that would drive the c…

doesn't seem that you have done a lot of research on the subject really.

You are wrong, I did a lot of research, but you obviously did so much more that it would be easy for you to answer my questions. Hopefully, one day your busy schedule would allow you to do it. It is a pity for now it only allowed to post a content-free comment.

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#199

My thinking about the blockchain/cryptocurrency space shifted significantly when I changed my perspective from thinking about technology to thinking about problems . The web caught on because in the late 80s, the biggest problem in the world was that we were starved for information. We didn't know it yet, because we'd never lived in any other world, but once we could fire up Netscape and view homepages from people wh…

> The biggest problem in the world today is lack of trust and the failure of institutions. (Which, ironically, may have been been caused by the web and the huge amount of information it made available.) And blockchains address this. The big rub in your belief is that social groups don't scale. In a group of size of 100 people or so, standard social techniques (such as peer pressure and ostracization) can keep order.…

"The ease of spreading information is also ease of spreading misinformation, and objection to censorship means there's no way to control spread of misinformation."

Censorship is non-consensual filtering of information (the mediator censors without consent of producer and consumer of information).

This does not mean we can't control the spread of disinformation at all: by investing in education, and educating people about the importance of verification in general or formal verification in specific where possible, society could invest in infrastructure that helps in weeding out false information without twisting the consumers hand willy-nilly.

As an example: without any need for censorship, if someone claims to give a proof for a theorem that supposedly follows from set.mm I can consent to censorship by voluntarily using MetaMath to verify it without even trying to understand the proof myself, and then discover that the proof is false, without some intermediary of information needing to censor anything for me.

This is kind of the underlying theme behind the "blockchain craze", educating people the surprising applicability of logic/mathematics to the real world, even if it is very hard to design and prove the security of such systems, and to interpret the assumptions of such designs with desirable properties as being the requirements of infrastructure we need to build in order to enjoy such a decentralized commons.

Re: The Blockchain Bubble Will Pop, What Next?

#200
post #193

Here's the big reason I've gotten skeptical about blockchain: it seems like very few people are excited about actually using it. Almost everyone talking about it is excited about getting rich from trading currencies or starting a blockchain-based company. And plenty of people are excited about a grand vision for how it might transform society one day, or how it might solve problems they think other people might have.…

I thought the blockchain technology had the potential to help financial sector. Not the virtual currency itself but there are a lot of agreements, transactions and settlements which are done in a untrustworthy environment which makes it slow and resulting in settlements [0]. I thought this is also the reason why it takes so long to transfer money from one bank to another. I thought these processes could benefit from…

The simple feature of reducing settlements from days into seconds is by itself a great use-case. However, there is a lot of structural incentives against it. If you're a big bank and make nice transaction fees because your clients trust you to make a secure, legal, and successful transaction, you probably don't want blockchain, because it's a threat to your business model. That's certainly one of the major reasons it's taking so long to be accepted by mainstream banks.

But long term, banks will need to accept faster transaction times. Blockchain or not, it's ridiculous you need to wait days to transfer money when you can send email in milliseconds.

Rather than accept Bitcoin, it's far more likely big-banks will get together and form their own crypto coin, which will enable faster transfers, but keep them in control. They'll get regulations passed that will make Bitcoin and most other crypto currencies illegal or legally risky, whereas their system will be blessed by regulators.

Under this scenario (I think the likeliest), the existing power hegemony stays this same, crypto-currency's idealistic roots become viewed as naive and antiquated, and consumers get slightly faster transfers through their same old banks with marginally lower transaction fees.

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