Your world view is too narrow. That 5000 figure is important, but it's not really meaningful in the grand scheme of things.
There is a 4th or 5th scenario, where
4. other car makers trail behind Tesla more and more in terms of technology. Remember, all these car makers had DECADES of head start developing EVs before Tesla was even born. Tesla was supposed to trail them in tech, not the other way around.
It's easy to assume that because a company is bigger, and have more resources and manufacturing experience, that they can move fast in developing tech. It's easy to judge a book by it's cover. Incumbents move slow ALWAYS. If moving fast was so easy, they would of done it before Tesla was born.
5. solar panels from SolarCity come into play.
Tesla has already deployed Solar grids in Australia. It's not just "smoke and mirrors", it's actually in production.
While the competitors are still trying to "match Tesla", Tesla has already moved on to find other areas to grow in tech advancement.
Right now, solar panels are considered a "toy". It's not even on any of the car makers' radar. It's like how Tesla's first Roadster cars were not on any of the car maker's radars 5 years ago. It's a "toy" until one day, it becomes a reality, and you tout your ability to "catch up" with your "vast experience"
5 years from now, folks like you will write another article, about how GM will be able to produce solar panels to "catch up to Tesla in just one or 2 years"