Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#191

Post by bodi » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 7:26 PM UTC

sykh wrote: post #174

maxxxxx wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Unfortunately Americans have been trained to believe that one party is right and the other is wrong. The concept that maybe both are wrong or support the same thing is foreign to them. Same with surveillance: It's either Bush's fault or Obama's fault. They don't see the steady progression over the years independently of who is in power.

It’s sort of the divide and conquer strategy. Pit groups against each other whilst the looting occurs. While people fight over who is the true snowflake and that kind of stuff all sorts of shitty policies get enacted. Things didn’t just suddenly get unbearable because just got elected. If one thinks this then the problem was already there and one's lack of awareness of it is the real problem.

> It’s sort of the divide and conquer strategy.

Since we're discussing nothing short of the US government acting as an enemy to the citizens it is supposed to serve, I would suppose the next few prudent questions are:

1) What is the entity deploying this divide and conquer strategy?

2) Is this entity monolithic? Cellular? Organized or random?

3) What does this entity stand to gain and is it good for all?

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#192

Post by TangoTrotFox » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 7:30 PM UTC

peter303 wrote: post #153

okreallywtf wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm hesitant to give Obama credit, but I think Trump claiming that the unemployment rate was 30, 40, 50% during the election and immediately taking credit for the unemployment numbers in january 2017 was so disingenuous that it truly boggles the mind. Anyone that gives Trump credit for the current trajectory of unemployment numbers is beyond the pale. Giving Obama credit to me is at the very least questionable - thin…

Trump called the labor non participition rate, about 38%, the true unemployment rate. That would include his wife and three of his five children ...

This is inaccurate. People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not considered part of the labor force. For instance this would include retired persons, students, people taking care of children or other family members, and those who have no desire at all to work. Here [1] is a brief on the reasons people are not counted.

[1] - https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-4/people-who-are-not-in-...

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#193

Post by cuspycode » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 7:30 PM UTC

lostmsu wrote: post #26

polskibus wrote: post #20

I wish the money printing game ended. The longer it goes the rougher the finale will be, globally. 1.5 T USD will push inflation globally.

What's wrong with inflation?

Inflation makes money lose one of the primary purposes of why money exists in the first place: money is a store of value.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#194

Post by ethbro » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 7:33 PM UTC

sykh wrote: post #168

xyzzyz wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course they are more of a problem, just like a mortgage is more risky than saving up to buy a house with cash upfront — pensions create a long term liability in a way that putting cash in employee 401k doesn’t. Even more importantly, with pensions you’re taking a mortgage that is deferred for a few decades, and someone else than you will be responsible for paying it off — by the time the pension benefits come to m…

...pensions create a long term liability in a way that putting cash in employee 401k doesn’t. Assuming we don’t want to live in a society in which vast numbers of elderly live in penury this isn’t true. It’s well known that when retirement savings are the responsibility of the emoloyee then they don’t save enough. What you say about bad governance is certainly true and incompetent or badly incentivized leadership wil…

Not to mention shifting responsibility on the management side from professionals to citizens.

(There are a lot of arguments to be quibbled over here, but when the average American can't calculate interest I'm not going to point to them as the best steward of their retirement)

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#195

Post by mywittyname » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 7:34 PM UTC

komali2 wrote: post #27

dgzl wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The poster's sentiment is correct is saying that it's a good idea to have low-risk resources available as a safety net. However I'd say having physical things like items you know you'll need in the future, or food storage, would be more valuable than having cash. Inflation wouldn't hurt the value of a computer or food you already own. In the other hand, I would imagine investing in gold would be a good idea as well.

I always think of it in disaster tiers. Market slowdown, you'll want your bonds. Recession, you'll want your cash. Depression, you'll want gold and barterable goods. Economic collapse or apocalypse, you'll want food, medicine, and alcohol (possibly the most barterable good, also delicious). In any case anybody reading this in a major city faces non zero likelihood of disaster (take your pick for your city, hurricane,…

Gold is worthless for buying stuff. My dad holds this view that people should keep a bunch of gold on hand for disasters. He was right that disaster would strike (massive snow storm), but he was wrong about the gold. Turns out, when credit card machines are inoperable, grocery stores won't take gold, just cash.

Tuck away a few hundred bucks in small bills. It will be more valuable than a chest full of gold when you really need it. It suuuuuuuucks to be caught without physical cash in an emergency.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#196

Post by okreallywtf » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 7:38 PM UTC

peter303 wrote: post #153

okreallywtf wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm hesitant to give Obama credit, but I think Trump claiming that the unemployment rate was 30, 40, 50% during the election and immediately taking credit for the unemployment numbers in january 2017 was so disingenuous that it truly boggles the mind. Anyone that gives Trump credit for the current trajectory of unemployment numbers is beyond the pale. Giving Obama credit to me is at the very least questionable - thin…

Trump called the labor non participition rate, about 38%, the true unemployment rate. That would include his wife and three of his five children ...

Source? People tend to put much more thoughtful words in his mouth after the fact trying to make what he says seem more reasonable, but if you have a source I'd gladly review it.

In the meantime, politifact has a good breakdown of what he says about the issue and where the numbers come from (spoiler, they make some wild assumptions) [1].

[1] http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/sep/...

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#197

Post by mywittyname » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 7:38 PM UTC

cuspycode wrote: post #193

lostmsu wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's wrong with inflation?

Inflation makes money lose one of the primary purposes of why money exists in the first place: money is a store of value.

It's primary purpose is as a unit of account, i.e., to quantify the value of an asset. It's the assets themselves that are the long-term store of wealth.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#198

Post by okreallywtf » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 7:39 PM UTC

okreallywtf wrote: post #133

ams6110 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump benefits from Obama's policies by reversing them.

I'm hesitant to give Obama credit, but I think Trump claiming that the unemployment rate was 30, 40, 50% during the election and immediately taking credit for the unemployment numbers in january 2017 was so disingenuous that it truly boggles the mind. Anyone that gives Trump credit for the current trajectory of unemployment numbers is beyond the pale. Giving Obama credit to me is at the very least questionable - thin…

Am I being downvoted for being too partisan or not partisan enough?

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#199

Post by throwawayjava » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 7:41 PM UTC

debt wrote: post #64

The language here is interesting. "Wile E Coyote moment" in the abstract looks and feels like a bubble, but he doesn't use the term bubble. So a sharp correction? But isn't that what a bubble does? Why not just say we're in bubble fueled by artificial growth caused by numerous government subsidies.

I guess for some very broad definition of bubble.

Consider, e.g., real estate prices in a relatively stable area after that area is plunged into a long-running war. Prices will sharply correct, but talking about a "peace bubble" is a bit disingenuous.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#200

Post by sykh » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 7:49 PM UTC

bodi wrote: post #191

sykh wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s sort of the divide and conquer strategy. Pit groups against each other whilst the looting occurs. While people fight over who is the true snowflake and that kind of stuff all sorts of shitty policies get enacted. Things didn’t just suddenly get unbearable because just got elected. If one thinks this then the problem was already there and one's lack of awareness of it is the real problem.

> It’s sort of the divide and conquer strategy. Since we're discussing nothing short of the US government acting as an enemy to the citizens it is supposed to serve, I would suppose the next few prudent questions are: 1) What is the entity deploying this divide and conquer strategy? 2) Is this entity monolithic? Cellular? Organized or random? 3) What does this entity stand to gain and is it good for all?

Since we're discussing nothing short of the US government acting as an enemy to the citizens it is supposed to serve....

Your premise is incorrect. The "sort of" part of my statement is important. There are lots of forces at play that cause this. I see it as sort of an emergent phenomenon and not the design of some clever genius or powerful organization.