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Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

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Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#191
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least with Uber there are real & mainstream alternatives.

Not using Facebook, or really any social media, has always been a viable alternative.

That’s not really how the word “alternative” is typically used. “Mangoes” are not a good “ground beef alternative.”

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#192
post #135

Why is FB advertising revenue per user almost 3x higher in US&Canada vs Europe: $23.14 vs $8.01 Is it because of Europe being more restrictive on how much user data can be used for advertising?

It has to do with (mostly, directly) with GDP per capita. American consumers earn & spend much more than europeans. NA also consumes much more than the rest of the world.

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#194
post #50

Can anyone explain why their operating margin is seemingly seasonal, improving through the year? And damn, that tax rate is insanely low. Looks like they're settling into around 10% effective tax. Average across profitable companies is ~25% according to an NYU study I linked to below. Damn. www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/taxrate.xls

Advertising is generally seasonal as it's a lot more common for people to spend money around the holidays than it is for them to spend money in Q1. Therefore, fewer companies buy advertising in Q1 because the audience of people who will buy their product is smaller. There are a few exceptions to this rule (Mcdonalds, Coke, etc), and they only do that because their business model is essentially to advertise so much you think about them subconsciously. If they stopped advertising for 3 months, this trick would lose a lot of power.

This isn't limited to ads btw, when I used to work at a restaurant we'd be noticeably slower during Q1 because people had less money saved (or were more aware of how much they have been spending lately). Similarly, when I worked retail our store "goals" were much lower as well (they usually picked up again late spring/early summer).

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#195
post #14

My main takeaway from this is that #deleteFacebook has been a flash in the pan-- their active user count is still increasing across all regions. Also to note, FB only pay effectively 11% tax on some 12 billion dollars worth of revenue.

You're totally right. The issue is although people are promoting #deleteFacebook, there's no other alternatives with widespread adoption to replace each person's Facebook network.

Having said that, there's movers in the space - we just need more adoption. I'm looking at a new wave of products like Sociall to step up: https://www.producthunt.com/posts/sociall

Though maybe there's already existing products out there that could pivot to claim some of facebook's space.

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#196
post #14

My main takeaway from this is that #deleteFacebook has been a flash in the pan-- their active user count is still increasing across all regions. Also to note, FB only pay effectively 11% tax on some 12 billion dollars worth of revenue.

According to this, Wall Street is still concerned:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/24/facebook-may-make-tons-of-mo...

Facebook has begun running TV ads to counter anti-Facebook sentiment:

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/25/17280902/facebook-ad-abou...

They have also replaced their chief privacy officer with a former FCC chairman.

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#197
What is your privacy worth to you? It's worth $100 / year to FB, and it probably costs you twice that much. (Assuming you live in the US.)

The average US user is worth > $100 / year now (forward looking) in advertising revenue.

Advertising works because it increases spending on products by some larger amount. Say this is 2x since there is significant risk and a lot of friction to overcome.

This means that on average, a US person spends something like $200 a year because they saw ads on FBs network.

This is simply astounding. Assuming 300m US users, this works out to $60b per year.

Kind of the opposite of free.

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#198
post #177
post #33

So wait... In the US, my "value" to facebook is about $100 a year? (~24/q rounded up) Can I subscribe to facebook and opt out of all advertising and any data sharing exposure with third-parties? That is totally worth $8-10/mo to me. Edit: I get it. You don't like this idea, or you don't think it will work, or you don't think facebook's investors will like it (full disclosure: I am one). Why on earth should that stop…

Feel free to start your own Facebook clone and charge $100 a year for no ads and see how successful that is.

As ridiculous as that sounds, does it really cost $100 per user per year to build a Facebook clone?

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#199

What is your privacy worth to you? It's worth $100 / year to FB, and it probably costs you twice that much. (Assuming you live in the US.) The average US user is worth > $100 / year now (forward looking) in advertising revenue. Advertising works because it increases spending on products by some larger amount. Say this is 2x since there is significant risk and a lot of friction to overcome. This means that on average,…

>This means that on average, a US person spends something like $200 a year because they saw ads on FBs network.

As much as I hate ads, this is a very poor way of understanding how advertising works.

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#200
post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> continued business as usual? Citations? I haven't really heard about them pulling any shenanigans under the new CEO's watch.

In all fairness, Uber's many shenanigans 1. Happened a lot over the early do or die periods of entering new markets. 2. Continued over a much longer period of time than Travis has been gone. 3. Happened while the company was being considered a darling and was not being critically scrutinized over every move it made. Shenanigans are truly shenanigans only once the outside world gets to know about it. Paradox of sorts…

In technical terms, I think there is the economical vacuum present with the entrenched taxi business, which nature abhored hard enough that someone came along and "shot the moon" so to speak, by exploring business models on a large enough scale that the validation could occur before regulation could even understand the disruption, let alone protect innocent bystanders from the inevitable downsides.

Take for instance the case in michigan, where the Uber driver had a psychotic episode, and killed the people that were hiring him, over multiple rides over multiple hours, simply because he was the nearest driver. Uber had no infrastructure to locate a driver, or assist law enforcement in any meaningful, real time manner. Imagine if that happened in 2018, and the lack of critical infrastructure was laid that bare by a multi billion dollar tech company testing out it's latest business tweak.

In some ways, it's not much different from an organized crime structure. The main reason organized crime is able to get away with all of their crime for long enough to even establish itself is good legal representation, to help stay ahead of their regulators.

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