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The Role of Luck in Life Success

blogs.scientificamerican.com

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Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#191

Post by skookumchuck »

marnett wrote: post #173
skookumchuck wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I believe that dumb luck is a bigger factor than effort. Make no effort, and your odds of failure are 100%. Your odds get better and better as you make smarter choices, put out the effort, and position yourself for success. > A lot Yeah, some fail. But most succeed in SV, the proof is in the housing prices.

> the proof is in the housing prices. I feel like this statement gives more backing to the arguments on luck. Those lucky enough to by an apartment in the peninsula in the 80s, who are gaining the most off of soaring housing costs, are now reaping remarkable 'success' with no proof they predicted, with skill, foresight, or intellect, the housing market of 2018.

Those housing prices wouldn't be going up if there weren't an awful lot of successful people in SV.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#192

Post by skookumchuck »

heurist wrote: post #189
skookumchuck wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you take no responsibility for the choices you make. It's all someone else's fault, right? You're a hapless victim of the vicissitudes of life? You chose that fate. Me, I choose differently.

Your experiences led you to "choose" differently. I had the same, though it took a while. Not everyone has those same experiences.

If you don't have free will, then why did you choose to participate in this discussion?

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#193

Post by tarken »

skookumchuck wrote: post #174
RoddaWallPro wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think if you took the time to research obesity, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, etc, in America vs. other countries, you would not be spouting this nonsense. Americans have the ability to get in a bad car wreck and live because we have incredible emergency care. That's it. That is not health.

> nonsense I'm happy to tell you the good news that the overwhelming majority young adults in American are not suffering from debilitating health problems nor have their lives been saved by incredible emergency care.

because we realize that our health system will not be there for us if we don't take care of ourselves. Our healthcare is a massive joke, a sham, and basically an excuse to experiment on people with pharmaceuticals.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#194

Post by frgtpsswrdlame »

mrkstu wrote: post #190
frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That's a fine excuse for being a loser. When you get tired of that, however, you can always choose better. Insults are unnecessary. This kind of individualist, man-as-an-island concept is appealing but it isn't true. What are "you" made of that doesn't originate as something outside of your control? Of course it all was at the start, the way we get to feeling individualistic is by laundering our experiences, pretend…

But of course, according to your narrative, his posting is the inevitable consequence of his genetics/environment/experiences to this point, so there is no point in trying to scold him for it.

My scolding is inevitable as well! (;

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#195

Post by tarken »

oldcynic wrote: post #176
skookumchuck wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luck won't happen to you if you don't get in the game. Getting in the game means getting out there swinging. Getting in the game is a choice you make.

I used to say, and believe, such things. After over 30 years of work, and business, I have become vastly more tolerant and understanding of those who were diligently "out there swinging" until it broke them, and sometimes their families too. There comes a point where anyone will break. What of those who were swinging improperly due to their year of birth and graduated during a recession? The effect of taking somethin…

I am that person you describe. Went to college in 07. I was told 'study whatever you want! the markets great!" so I went into poli sci. then 08 happened, millions of jobs disappeared, more than ever before in history. 'its ok!' they said. 'it'll bounce back!', but it hasn't, not really, not for me. I graduated with my degree, disillusioned with the world's institutions and my prospects working as a diplomat or for an ngo. unable to find a job I could apply my degree to, I was at least able to 'bridge the gap' waiting tables. I was so poor, my health plummeted. eating cheap food, unable to go to a doctor's office or dental office. this was exacerbated by a smoking addiction I picked in in college.

on a regular basis, I wonder what my life would be like had I gone to school a year or two later, where I'd be if I was aware of the housing/job crisis and not given the false promise of 'be whatever you want!'.

of course this paragraph is an oversimplification of a very long and grueling chapter of my life, and my attempt to distill it down for the sake of anecdote does not do it justice. Those lessons learned will stick with me for the remainder of my life: mistrust of private organizations (like banks), captured public organizations (like the american government).

whenever I see some bootstrapper huff and puff about how x demographic are lazy I can only roll my eyes. people live in their cushy little salary bubbles, blind to the outside world's struggles. they don't see how falling a little behind can set you so far back. Work a service job and you too can see how fucking dehumanizing wage slavery is.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#196

Post by nogbit »

lisper wrote: post #110
raleec wrote: post #94

Apologies in advance but I must confess.. I don't get it. Can someone define luck? -I didn't choose my DNA. -I didn't choose my parents. -I didn't choose my circumstances. -I didn't choose which neural pathways were reinforced based on my experiences. -I didn't choose which environmental factors altered any of my biological systems. -I didn't choose not to die in my sleep every night from an undiagnosed ailment. Remo…

I think most people believe that you can choose, on any given night, to study or play video games. And I think most people believe that if you choose to study then sooner or later you will succeed. And I think most people are wrong on both counts.

Creating/building etc improves your chances of success because you are actually making more connections (intentional or otherwise) which increase the chance of luck. That is not wrong, just the luck actually happening is well, still luck (does not happen to all).

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#197

Post by mistermann »

mistermann wrote: post #89
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not that convinced about the hard work part, it strikes me it's a hangover from the protestant work ethic. If you can't achieve something in 40 hours a week why would adding another 20 make much difference. If anything it might make it more difficult. I think I'd phrase it as you need work and luck.

What's special about the second 20 hours that they make no difference? Does the 39th hour make a difference? The 41st?

-1 votes, color me surprised.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#198

Post by phs318u »

marnett wrote: post #181
phs318u wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mostly agree with you. From 12-step programs, “Accept the things you cannot change. Change the things you can”. To my mind this means, accept the external circumstances you find yourself in - especially other people (since most can’t really exert sufficient force to change other people, at least not in a positive way), and work on changing your own reactions to the world. (This is a view that aligns with Stoic phil…

Do you recommend Aurelius or Seneca for Stoicism texts? I read a small amount of literature on Seneca and really fell in love with Stoicism.

Reading Epictetus' "Enchiridion" at the moment. I enjoy Marcus Aurelius. Can't say I've read a lot of the texts. I'm not a voracious reader (any more). However, I kick off every day with a page from Ryan Haliday's "The Daily Stoic" (while his interpretations are sometimes lacking, the original quote that he expands on usually needs no exposition).

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#199

Post by NotSammyHagar »

skookumchuck wrote: post #98
petra wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the ingredients of hard work, I.e. preservance, energy, focus, etc are themselves dependent on luck - having the right genes, growth environment , health , etc - so that's another type of luck.

Claiming that working hard is "luck" is an absurd excuse for not bothering to try. The vast majority of people in the US are healthy and the environment in the US is the most conducive in the world to success. Stop making excuses.

> the environment in the US is the most conducive in the world to success. Stop making excuses

I think it depends on what is success. It's at least arguable about the us being the most conductive to success. We have less regulation in a lot of ways than other western countries, but if you have troubles, like say a car wreck that hurts you, it sucks to be in the us compared to say germany. In the us, there are a lot of built in advantages for the existing successful companies, it's harder to challenge. For example there are few large internet providers. But at the same time, there are many more new startup companies here, and there seems to be much more risk tolerance.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#200

Post by ghthor »

skookumchuck wrote: post #113
lisper wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think most people believe that you can choose, on any given night, to study or play video games. And I think most people believe that if you choose to study then sooner or later you will succeed. And I think most people are wrong on both counts.

Studying improves your odds of success. Video games improve your odds of failure. It's your choice.

I learned the communication skills to be a good remote employee from mmorpgs. I learned about systems design from playing video games and discussing how mechanics interact to encourage/discourage different behaviors. I hate this trope that playing video games is a negative.
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