Earlier quoted context omitted.
The USD is probably the most well-behaved fiat currency of the last century, so that’s basically the least interesting example, but: USD is inflationary. Ceteris paribus, a rational actor would generally prefer to hold something deflationary. The (epsilon-) no-arbitrage argument suggests that the frequently raised “but then no one will ever invest in things” objection doesn’t actually make any sense. USD is highly co…
> USD is inflationary. Ceteris paribus, a rational actor would generally prefer to hold something deflationary. The (epsilon-) no-arbitrage argument suggests that the frequently raised “but then no one will ever invest in things” objection doesn’t actually make any sense. This is only true for savers and the vast majority of Americans, likely the world, are debtors (source: http://time.com/money/4709270/americans-die…
Fiat is Effective: fiat for the crypto crowd [pdf]
191–200 of 275 posts
Re: Fiat is Effective: fiat for the crypto crowd [pdf]
#192Earlier quoted context omitted.
>instead of the ecosystem of cryptocurrencies we actually have, which is more like Hayek's proposal for competing privately-issued currencies. That's interesting, it's the first time I hear about this concept. I just barely skimmed a few articles about the concept but I'm not sure how this would solve the problems in TFA. In particular deflation: if I need to invest in a currency why would I even elect to use an infl…
Hayek points out that you wouldn't choose an inflationary currency. He relies on that to limit overall inflation. But you also don't have the deflationary problems of the gold standard, since it's possible to make more money at will if you need it. Regarding payments: suppose we were starting from scratch, with two proposed systems: (1) user signs transactions that authorize transfers with specific recipients and amo…
"What-ifs" are always an interesting game but practically we're veeeery far from starting from scratch with the economy. But okay, I'll play.
>user signs transactions that authorize transfers with specific recipients and amounts
Great, but you've only secured one tiny part of the "earn money/spend money" loop. What if the service/goods you buy turns out to be a scam or something defective? What if my company stops paying me? What if the government starts unfairly taxing me and threatens to throw me in jail if I don't comply?
Our current economy is a lot more than just adding a value on one counter while decrementing an other. It's a complex web of laws, regulations and arbitrations that mean that I can buy something on Amazon without having to cross my fingers that I'll get what I paid for.
That's where this whole libertarian wet dream collapses for me. The whole argument behind bitcoin seems to be "what if your government turns into a fascist state, do you really want them to control your money?"
And clearly the answer is no, but if we end up in this situation my savings account might not be the first of my worries. Nor would having my money in bitcoins prevent me from being thrown in jail if I refuse to yield my secret keys to the neo-gestapo.
On the other hand if the government is benevolent and works for the good of the people then I really want it to be able to control the currency, be able to cease the money generated by illegal activities and tax legitimate income fairly in order to build roads, hospitals, schools, the police and firestations (amongst other things).
I don't want to live in a society where I can't trust my democratically elected government. So maybe we should work on fixing that rather than coming up with incomplete workarounds. "Hey, my sister got detained for thought crime yesterday, but at least I can send her Bitcoins to prison unhindered! Take that Ür-Hitler!"
Re: Fiat is Effective: fiat for the crypto crowd [pdf]
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
The USD is probably the most well-behaved fiat currency of the last century, so that’s basically the least interesting example, but: USD is inflationary. Ceteris paribus, a rational actor would generally prefer to hold something deflationary. The (epsilon-) no-arbitrage argument suggests that the frequently raised “but then no one will ever invest in things” objection doesn’t actually make any sense. USD is highly co…
> paperwork error by the state comptroller led to them withdrawing several thousand dollars from my bank account with no warning It's a good job that the computer you store your bitcoin on never has any security issues.
Re: Fiat is Effective: fiat for the crypto crowd [pdf]
#194Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is laughable. An investment of $700 ( http://www.gunbroker.com/item/696279983 ) makes content of one's hardware wallet non-recoverable. Right of redress does not help as the transaction is not reversible.
Read up on hardware wallet passphrases. You can have as many wallets on your hardware wallet as you like, and there's no way to tell how many there are. The hidden funds certainly won't be vulnerable to a fast mugging. And of course, if you have a large amount of money you probably shouldn't put it on the hardware you carry around anyway. Apply a little common sense and put it in a safe deposit box.
The reason why currency in current form is so interesting is that it is not easy to move massive amounts currency into a form that can be easily consumed. Even uncut diamonds is a small market so in event crime happens the proceeds of crime will likely be recovered given determined tracking party (i.e. nation state) and returned to the victim of the crime. This, essentially, is the single most important part of the non-crypto currency UX.
I can provide you with an example another extremely popular ( much more popular than BitCon ) currency that does not have such UX - it is cocaine. I think we all can agree its main UX property is violence.
Re: Fiat is Effective: fiat for the crypto crowd [pdf]
#195Earlier quoted context omitted.
But you are asking a sovereign authority, with few restrictions in terms of monetary policy, to voluntarily restrict itself for no benefit.
The benefit is a more free society and less systemic risk. It doesn't benefit the sovereign authority directly, but neither does freedom of speech, religion, etc.
Cryptocurrency is similar except that it wastes a lot more energy to accomplish the same thing.
The government, of course, retains unlimited power to tax, so the ability to fund whatever it wants is retained in all cases.
Re: Fiat is Effective: fiat for the crypto crowd [pdf]
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hayek points out that you wouldn't choose an inflationary currency. He relies on that to limit overall inflation. But you also don't have the deflationary problems of the gold standard, since it's possible to make more money at will if you need it. Regarding payments: suppose we were starting from scratch, with two proposed systems: (1) user signs transactions that authorize transfers with specific recipients and amo…
>suppose we were starting from scratch "What-ifs" are always an interesting game but practically we're veeeery far from starting from scratch with the economy. But okay, I'll play. >user signs transactions that authorize transfers with specific recipients and amounts Great, but you've only secured one tiny part of the "earn money/spend money" loop. What if the service/goods you buy turns out to be a scam or something…
The dollar has lost %99.99 of its value, and in my opinion has had %100 inflation in the past 10 years (not each year but over the decade) so is effectively half as valuable again.
This is theft from the people. Even Keynes recognized this.
Bitcoin is an exit from that system. It has lot of other features like the ability to send money across borders which is harder to surveil and stuff like that.
I'm also tired of people rationalizing taxes by talking about things like roads which get almost no money-- taxes pay for dropping bombs on brown people. That's the vast majority of where the money goes.
If you're pro-tax, you're pro-murdering brown people. fullstop.
Re: Fiat is Effective: fiat for the crypto crowd [pdf]
#197So the argument basically comes down to that crypto is too volatile and not usable as unit of account? 1. Crypto is still in its initial stage, where capital is flowing into it. Once it is there, it will be less volatile. You can already see this in Bitcoin[1], where relative volatility is dropping every year. 2. There are projects coming that will enable decentralized trustless peg of fiat currencies into blockchian…
No, that is not at all the argument. The argument is that you cannot have an economy run on a deflationary currency, which bitcoin is. An effective economy requires a bit of inflation and the ability to issue new money when necessary for socio-political reasons. Crypto currencies are a cult, though the underlying tech is interesting.
Re: Fiat is Effective: fiat for the crypto crowd [pdf]
#198Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Say the United States decides to allow decentralized cryptocurrencies to become the dominant medium of exchange in the US; say it even gets rid of the $USD. What problem do you think this would solve? (assuming the US gov desires to continue all other operations in exactly the same manner as it does currently). I don't think the second condition "assuming the US gov ..." is compatible with the first. My objections…
Printing money would indeed no longer be an option for governments. But their main source of income are taxes. And why would taxes change? >and if the government comes to your door and says "give me 10 bitcoins [...]", you're going to do your best to vote those people out Why would that be different with 10 bitcoins than with 10 thousand dollars?
My point about "coming to your door" was not bitcoins vs. dollars, but taxes vs. FOMC. If the government really wants to give away the value equivalent of trillions of dollars, they have to get the money from increasing receipts, rather than just monetizing debt. They can take on debt, but they have to pay for it, rather than use accounting tricks to borrow at zero interest to support zero interest "loans".
That said, you're probably right; no effective political action is going to be taken in opposition to tax levies, especially if they're aimed at the "1%" -- by the time the 1% becomes the 30% (vis a vis AMT) people will have forgotten why they cared.
Re: Fiat is Effective: fiat for the crypto crowd [pdf]
#199So the argument basically comes down to that crypto is too volatile and not usable as unit of account? 1. Crypto is still in its initial stage, where capital is flowing into it. Once it is there, it will be less volatile. You can already see this in Bitcoin[1], where relative volatility is dropping every year. 2. There are projects coming that will enable decentralized trustless peg of fiat currencies into blockchian…
I'm a big advocate of cryptocurrency but am unconvinced that stable value coins can work. The Sai was recently released: https://blog.makerdao.com/2017/06/05/introducing-sai/ and BitUSD has been out for years: https://bitshares.org/technology/price-stable-cryptocurrenci... but neither have a significant amount of value riding on them and I personally wouldn't trust them with significant value. The problem with any st…
There is only one of me, forever! The supply of me will eventually go to zero! Get in now- only $4999.95 for one 1/1000th share of me! Want to trade shares of me? Just use craigslist. I'm sure I'll be on Poloniex soon. I hear there's a double bottom pattern so get in now!
Don't like me? Well I also hand-made a copper wire sculpture! It's truly one of a kind and guaranteed to last forever! A 1/1000th share of my sculpture is $15,000 though because it'll make you feel sophisticated and artistic (I'm more of a lowbrow investment myself)
Re: Fiat is Effective: fiat for the crypto crowd [pdf]
#200At any rate, the past 7 years has shown the market accepting bitcoin and the price being driven up.
People don't want to accept this fact so they call it a bubble. It bubbles a bit, sure, and there will be a bitcoin bubble-- but we're not there yet.
Bitcoin is the internet of money. This isn't just a slogan. Bitcoin is a platform that provides many improvements to the existing system.
But as a technology platform it is going thru the technology adoption life cycle, so was more and more people hold some, the price goes up. It will be "volatile" until it's fully distributed.
So "speculating" is not bad-- it's how bitcoin gets its wide distribution. Over time as applications are built on top of the platform, the utility will come more into play.
This is ok. This is the early years. Bitcoin isn't meant to replace the entire system right out of the gate.