Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure it's fake. Our economic models are so out of touch with reality, it's a wonder the system works at all. We treat digital goods the same as physical goods, we spend tons of money to prop up giant failing structures instead of letting them fall apart, we let those that make the most walk away without paying their fair share, we subsidize stuff that nobody wants and is harmful to us, and aren't even close to making…
> We treat digital goods the same as physical goods I'm struggling to see the impact this has on economic reality. Could you expound?
More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why
191–200 of 298 posts
Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why
#192Earlier quoted context omitted.
Alternatively, student loans are rediculously high. Every adult I know always pushes college, but had I been given a $100k loan to buy a rental unit at 18, I'd have turned that into $250k by the time I finished 5 years of school. Not to mention, I could have worked a 9 - 5, $25 / hr job, and bought a second or third... Perhaps school isn't the best in many cases. Now I pay $1k a month in student loan payments, on top…
Where do you get a 9-5 job that pays $25/hr without going to college? I know adjunct professors that get paid less than that.
Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why
#193I hate sounding both old and weird but I cannot shake the feeling that much of the claims of economic health and growth in the US is... if not fake (I’m not totally nuts) but not accurate. My most charitable interpretation if I’m right is that we’re using the wrong metrics (possibly intentionally) that give a distorted view of the economy. But I keep hearing employment is great, productivity is great, stock market is…
>But I keep hearing employment is great, productivity is great, stock market is great The question you have to ask is, who are you hearing this from? The answer is: people with a vested interest in making you believe the economy is doing great, or people fooled into believing this by those with a vested interest. I suggest you closely examine the metrics used by those who claim the "economy is great". First these met…
y = rent, b = slope, x = sqft
y ~ b + x is the extent of the 'hedonic adjustment'
There don't really exist any control variables for 'better'. Nobody at CPI is subjectively saying toiler paper is better. What they will stochastically estimate is the per-unit price. So if for $10 you get 9 double roles, and last year you got 9 single roles for $10, then the price went down. But I assure you as someone who has looked at row-level data of what the CPI samples and does, there are no cases that are this extreme in the aggregate. They could drop the hedonic adjustments and it would make no practical difference. Private companies use similar sampling methods with better data and don't show wildly different headline inflation (see: Billion Prices Project http://www.thebillionpricesproject.com/)
There is no doubt however that the CPI data is inadequate, has a non-trivial lag, and does not capture true regional differences in prices. Just try using it to adjust your salary if you move from Birmingham to New York City and see how comfortable you'd be. But there is no conspiracy; that would presume far more competency than they have hired for.
Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why
#194Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is an interesting anecdote, delivered with lots of confidence. However, despite the just-so manner you delivered it, I don't see a compelling argument. For starters, the CPI isn't calculated in an opaque manner; it's explained here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf . The costs that are increasing for most Americans are housing, healthcare, and education costs. Yet over 40% of American households own…
Did you even read CPI information from the link you posted? Literally every page is riddled with opaque reference to arbitrarily defined values and modifiers inserted by the FED. >In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are aggregated using weights , which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group . What do you think "aggregated using weights…
I think to support the argument that CPI is cooked you need to show that you have some reasonable sampling of prices of some reasonable basket across the entire country. You can search online for rent prices, you can see real estate prices, you can see product/produce prices... You can find out what % of the population rents vs. owns and factor that in. Let's see that data that shows us that CPI is really wrong and not some anecdotes. I think there's enough data in the public domain to be able to form a pretty good estimate. Also we need to see that over a long period since some prices go through big cycles, real-estate can crash 40% and then go up, so we may want to reduce the impact of that...
Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why
#195Earlier quoted context omitted.
> We treat digital goods the same as physical goods I'm struggling to see the impact this has on economic reality. Could you expound?
I took that as a reference to the decline of manufacturing in the United States.
Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
>But I keep hearing employment is great, productivity is great, stock market is great The question you have to ask is, who are you hearing this from? The answer is: people with a vested interest in making you believe the economy is doing great, or people fooled into believing this by those with a vested interest. I suggest you closely examine the metrics used by those who claim the "economy is great". First these met…
"Hedonic adjustment" is meant to control for the 'quality' of some (limited) products sampled in the CPI such as rent, computers and automobiles. 'quality-adjusted' means that they run a standard linear regression across the features of sampled items to normalize the variation in the sample. For example, the sampled rent of apartments would be modeled as (in the simplest example I can think of) : y = rent, b = slope,…
This seems to be the case almost universally, but I guess it's easier to jump to the 'malice' conclusion than to attribute it to lack of competency.
Perhaps more succinctly: if you think the world is out to get you, then it is.
Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why
#197Earlier quoted context omitted.
>But I keep hearing employment is great, productivity is great, stock market is great The question you have to ask is, who are you hearing this from? The answer is: people with a vested interest in making you believe the economy is doing great, or people fooled into believing this by those with a vested interest. I suggest you closely examine the metrics used by those who claim the "economy is great". First these met…
"Hedonic adjustment" is meant to control for the 'quality' of some (limited) products sampled in the CPI such as rent, computers and automobiles. 'quality-adjusted' means that they run a standard linear regression across the features of sampled items to normalize the variation in the sample. For example, the sampled rent of apartments would be modeled as (in the simplest example I can think of) : y = rent, b = slope,…
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2015/files/2...
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” - Upton Sinclair
Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why
#198Is it possible that some graduates are realizing that for all that money, their education was not what they were promised, and a bit of resentment has led them to make the decision not to pay?
Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why
#199Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is an interesting anecdote, delivered with lots of confidence. However, despite the just-so manner you delivered it, I don't see a compelling argument. For starters, the CPI isn't calculated in an opaque manner; it's explained here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf . The costs that are increasing for most Americans are housing, healthcare, and education costs. Yet over 40% of American households own…
Did you even read CPI information from the link you posted? Literally every page is riddled with opaque reference to arbitrarily defined values and modifiers inserted by the FED. >In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are aggregated using weights , which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group . What do you think "aggregated using weights…
Re: More Americans Are Falling Behind on Student Loans, and Nobody Quite Knows Why
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
Did you even read CPI information from the link you posted? Literally every page is riddled with opaque reference to arbitrarily defined values and modifiers inserted by the FED. >In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are aggregated using weights , which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group . What do you think "aggregated using weights…
So what about this data: http://www.thebillionpricesproject.com/datasets/ I think to support the argument that CPI is cooked you need to show that you have some reasonable sampling of prices of some reasonable basket across the entire country. You can search online for rent prices, you can see real estate prices, you can see product/produce prices... You can find out what % of the population rents vs. owns and factor…