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Master Plan, Part Deux

tesla.com

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Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#191

Post by warfangle »

aerovistae wrote: post #74
serge2k wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's almost as if he's delivered on everything he promised hasn't Tesla repeatedly missed price points and delivery dates. Or are those not promises. I actually think most of what he is talking about is pretty doable. The ones I'm skeptical of are his talk about the massive factory improvements (in a few years too?) and the magic buses with no aisles or entrances. By what measure are Tesla and SpaceX the "two most…

I'm actually curious about the bus, too. Sounds weird. But I trust his judgement, I'm sure it'll be great. He has a track record, you know. Regarding missed promises, if you're saying that as if to suggest that what he's promised isn't nonetheless coming true at a pace faster than anyone else could have possibly delivered, I think you're wearing blinders. Regarding "most difficult".......are you aware of other compan…

Google's doing a lot better on the whole self driving front.

At least in terms of fatalities per mile.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#192

Post by pcr0 »

aerovistae wrote: post #9

To anyone who's paid close attention to Tesla and to Elon's various offhand remarks to the press and on Twitter, this was all easy to see coming, every bit of it. But now that he's confirmed it all officially: this NUTS . This is so awesome. The press is going to go crazy with this. I wonder what will happen to Uber...seems like it will be hard for them to compete with the rates of cars that don't have to pay their d…

I don't think Uber and Tesla are competing in any way. In fact, Travis Kalanick stated he would buy half a million Teslas if they became fully autonomous[0].

[0]: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1098997_uber-ceo-to-tesl...

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#193

Post by swalsh »

jsprogrammer wrote: post #181
dpcx wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know why Ford turns a profit? Because they've gotten those economies of scale. If/when Tesla does, I'm sure they'll make a profit, too.

>You know why Ford turns a profit? Because they've gotten those economies of scale. Ford was immediately profitable, was it not? Even before implementing an assembly line?

When ford came on the market, it only had to be better than a horse. A tesla has to be better than a masarati on the high end, a jaguar on the "medium" end, and a subaru on the "low" end.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#194

Post by qaq »

amluto wrote: post #85

Master plan part one made sense: it all lead to Tesla as it is today. But master plan part deux seems odd: what exactly does "One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app" for solar have to do with the Tesla transportation part?

batteries :)

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#196

Post by Joof »

usaphp wrote: post #81
Animats wrote: post #64

"A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018." What that really means: Tesla is going to lose a ton of money per car on the Model 3, or raise the price, until at least 2022. T…

You are comparing premium tesla sedans with ford and Honda cars, of course premium car will take longer to build. Porsche for example produced 189,000 cars [1] in 2014 with 19,000 employees. And the average price of Porsche car is also lower than Tesla's. [1] - http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=897

Calling it a logical fallacy that a premium car takes longer to build because it is premium.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#197

Post by argonaut »

mtgx wrote: post #180
yish wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much data has Google and Apple collected using LIDAR and such on their mapping/street view vehicles?

It's in the millions. Tesla's is in the hundreds of millions/close to a billion.

Technically, it's 0, because Tesla does not use LIDAR at all.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#198

Post by maratd »

Robelius wrote: post #128
durkie wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but tesla's production rate is increasing. the end of q2 saw rates of over 2k cars/week, which would be on target for >100k/year, over twice 2015's rate.

Which is still not the 500000 cars/year they need.

What the? I don't think they ever guided to that number for 2016. That's ridiculous. They're right where they should be and on target.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#199

Post by suprgeek »

Obscured under " Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning " is the cold hard truth that that learning will be paid for in lives - mostly of Tesla drivers possibly of others.

The rates of accidents in manual vs current version of autopilot may work out to be favorable - (and that is still under debate) - but there certainly will be people who will die (and have died) due to a premature roll-out of Autopilot and their trust of it. This is some bloody cold calculation

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#200

Post by maratd »

thucydides wrote: post #109
akira2501 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you're an American, you're twice as likely to die with a steering wheel in your hands as you are to die at the hands of a murderer. Human-driven vehicle deaths cause grave second-order suffering for families and friends - and hurt the economy. If you're an American you're more likely to die from suicide than you are from motor vehicle related injuries. You're more likely to be poisoned than to die in a motor veh…

There are 30,000 motor vehicle deaths in America each year. In perhaps 30 years, fully autonomous vehicles could cut all of that needless carnage to nearly nothing. And what about the hundreds of thousands of injuries we'll be spared? Worldwide, fully-autonomous vehicles will be a public health victory on the scale of vaccines or antibiotics.

> Worldwide, fully-autonomous vehicles will be a public health victory on the scale of vaccines or antibiotics.

While autonomy is great and will definitely save many lives, it is absolutely not on the scale of vaccines or antibiotics. Not even close.

You're comparing the deaths of millions to thousands.

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