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UK votes to leave EU

bbc.co.uk

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Re: UK votes to leave EU

#191

Post by fapjacks »

lettergram wrote: post #51

I still have severe doubts this will happen. It will take many years to renegotiate and most treaties will be in effect until then. My guess is very little changes, it's more of a sign that people want their country sovereign as opposed to being ruled by a committee in another country.

Now this is an interesting comment. Does anyone have specifics about the timeline with respect to the treaties already binding the UK to other EU members?

EDIT: As mentioned elsewhere, here's an interesting summary with projected timelines: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachm...

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#194

Post by gonvaled »

muse900 wrote: post #50
martythemaniak wrote: post #13

Is Scotland going to be exiting the UK next? Guess we'll see in a few years. Hard to know what will happen here, but I suspect once the UK (or what's left of it) signs a trade deal with the EU, they'll get the same deal as Norway - all the compliance with EU regulations, with none of the say. I suppose people may be happy with that deal, as long as they can get to say they're "free". I'm hoping this somehow leave the…

I think that the EU will see the UK leave as a slap. So it will definitely slap back, especially Germany. I think with this result UK gave the ok to Germany to actually push UK's economy into a devaluation and then e.g Berlin can become the new London of Europe. I don't think the UK is going to get the same deal as Norway or Switzerland especially since the UK doesn't want to get involved in the free movement.

The EU needs to move carefully now: it must not punish, or slap, or threaten. Just accept the result, making clear the benefits of EU membership to the rest of the members, including suspending the benefits that the UK had.

Calmly, but clearly.

This will be good for everybody: UK will be happy being free (a feeling which will trump any disadvantage they may be getting by leaving the EU), and the EU can proceed with greater political integration.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#195

Post by owenversteeg »

Since for some reason the larger, older, higher-voted, more popular thread was marked as a dupe I'm copying my popular comment over here:

The BBC just announced that "Britain has voted to leave the European Union".

Leave only needs 2,105,984 more votes to win. [edit 12:15am EST] 1,715,256 votes now and closing fast. [edit 12:19am EST] 1,196,678 [edit 12:27am EST] 894,189 [edit 12:31am EST] 785,549 [edit 12:37am EST] 741,795 [edit 12:38am EST] 592,337 [edit 12:45am EST] 448,596 [edit 12:46am EST] 373,532 [edit 12:51am EST] 308,519 [edit 12:57am EST] 94,635 [edit 1:00am EST] 37,665 [edit 1:02am EST] 0. The UK has officially voted to leave.

Predicted result: Leave 52%, Remain 48%

Wow. So what happens now?

- Scotland voted 62% Remain. The SNP said it will call a second independence referendum if Leave wins. Many estimate that the independence movement will win this time around. Literally every single Scottish division voted to remain.

- Gibraltar will probably be royally screwed [0] as well as some other areas that are heavily dependent on trade/travel with EU countries

- The pound drops like a rock. Was stable at $1.48 all day, peaked at $1.50 earlier after Remain was doing well (~6pm EST), now at $1.33 (12:13am EST), now at $1.32 (12:21am EST) and the lowest level since 1985. In 1985 it hit $1.08, which was then the lowest value in a very long time.

- The pound is down 17% from the yen by the way.

- Other independence movements in other EU countries gain a bit of legitimacy. The euro drops (currently at $1.09, down four cents or 3%), and the yen gains (currently up 6%) (12:25am EST)

- For those of us fortunate enough to have our savings in dollars, everything denominated in pounds is currently on a 12% off sale.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11965342

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#197

Post by pbarnes_1 »

martythemaniak wrote: post #13

Is Scotland going to be exiting the UK next? Guess we'll see in a few years. Hard to know what will happen here, but I suspect once the UK (or what's left of it) signs a trade deal with the EU, they'll get the same deal as Norway - all the compliance with EU regulations, with none of the say. I suppose people may be happy with that deal, as long as they can get to say they're "free". I'm hoping this somehow leave the…

Scotland will leave the UK.

Northern Ireland will unify with the Republic.

FTSE 100 will open down 12-19%, which probably wipes out ISAs all over the place.

This is history in the making. Decided by something like 1 million people as of right now.

Just an absolute disaster.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#198

Post by slg »

I think this should be a wake up call for those of us who are American. Populist movements that rely heavily on anger, fear, and anti-immigration rhetoric can still be effective in western democracies even if a large majority of experts think it shouldn't and won't happen. This is the first time I have legitimately thought we might end up with a Trump presidency.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#199

Post by arethuza »

I wonder if the EU will now say that Scotland can get membership if we vote for independence? Obviously they couldn't do that while the UK was in the EU, but now that the UK wants to leave and Scotland doesn't that view might well change.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-3659...

NB On a personal note I am way more upset by this result than any other election or referendum I have voted in - even the first Scottish Independence Referendum.

Re: UK votes to leave EU

#200

Post by rdtsc »

Being selfish here, wonder how this affects US.

Even though on the surface EU and UK are alies and trade partners, it is not all black and white. I believe US will benefit because they will be able to play UK against EU and vice-versa to gain somehow. Say if EU doesn't allow import of US chicken they can go and try to persuade UK to not allow some import from EU in exchange for some other favor and so on.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if this strengthens US's stock market in short to medium term, as everyone will flee to US stocks due to perceived volatility.

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