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A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

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Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#191
The basic problem that makes universal basic income impossible is that it's simply not possibly to set the level of it. Have a try:

1. What should UBI be in San Francisco? 2. What should UBI be in Detroit? 3. Should they be the same? 4. What happens if they're not the same? 5. What happens if they're the same?

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#192
post #99

This article says it's talking about a universal basic income, and makes the usual point that a completely universal, no-strings-attached income is simple to administer, doesn't have poverty traps, etc. And then, towards the end where it starts looking at numbers, it starts saying things like > But by excluding 45 million retirees who already receive a basic income through Social Security, the cost falls to $2.7 tril…

I think the article is talking more about the difference from the current system.

> But by excluding 45 million retirees who already receive a basic income through Social Security, the cost falls to $2.7 trillion.

These retirees can be excluded from the calculation because they are already being paid, they wouldn't add any additional cost to the system.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#193
I see two basic issues:

1. How do you implement this whithout border control - if you create a basic income that is higher than ~1/2 the world's income the amount of illegal immigration will be huge

2. Will we really have the will to tell people who are starving because they lost their stipend to drugs or gambling "too bad"?

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#194
post #99

This article says it's talking about a universal basic income, and makes the usual point that a completely universal, no-strings-attached income is simple to administer, doesn't have poverty traps, etc. And then, towards the end where it starts looking at numbers, it starts saying things like > But by excluding 45 million retirees who already receive a basic income through Social Security, the cost falls to $2.7 tril…

It's not just wealthier people who will be worse off - it's everyone. Basic income is known to create a large disincentive for work. In previous experiments (Mincome) labor supply dropped by about 10% - double what happened during the great recession. This means that fewer working mothers can find child care, fewer laborers to mow your lawn, fewer nurses, fewer teachers, etc. No matter how much money you give to peop…

I'll have you know that money itself tends to disincentivise work for a lot of people. In this economy, monied relationships are too often wage slavery. People think that they can pay me to work on something I don't love. You are sitting here talking about people mowing your effing lawn. Are you kidding me? If you aren't gonna do that yourself, why in the dear beloved earth should you expect some stranger to do it except out of either good will or fear? Sure, you can get some deeply fearful stranger to sit in the same building day in and day out, doing your dishes and pouring you coffee, putting their own individuation on hold for your career, just to have basic economic security. But in the big picture, a whole world of people out of touch with what they love is bad for the planet itself.

Many people never get a chance to discover a passionate relationship with work. Collectively, when we kick the habit of forcing people into doing things out of fear (with money) means that a lot of people are gonna be feeling like fish out of water. Generations of slaves don't just jump out of their chains eager to get working again.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you finding a drop of 10%? All I can find is "On the whole, the research results were encouraging to those who favour a GAI. The reduction in work effort was modest: about one per cent for men, three per cent for wives, and five per cent for unmarried women. These are small effects in absolute terms and they are also smaller than the effects observed in the four US experiments, a result that once again conf…

"The total amount of work hours decreased by only 13%." https://decorrespondent.nl/541/why-we-should-give-free-money... Either way, whether it's 13% or 5%, it makes us all poorer. The Namibia experiment is not remotely comparable. That was a) a transfer of wealth from outside the community into it (closer to imperialism than redistribution), b) poverty in Namibia is not remotely like poverty in the US, and c) a big c…

It only makes us poorer if the 13% work hour reduction is going to something less efficient than work, with regard to overall economic effectiveness.

With mincome didn't they determine that the work hours decreased was dominated by 1) young males entering the work force later due to increased high school completion rate and 2) females talking longer maternity leave?

If thats the case, then its possible that it made everyone richer if over the lifetime more educated workers and more cared for infants are more efficient.

*Note: I actually am a huge skeptic of basic income schemes as the math seems dramatic, but I think a simple "people work less hours" counterargument is overly simplistic.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#197

The basic problem that makes universal basic income impossible is that it's simply not possibly to set the level of it. Have a try: 1. What should UBI be in San Francisco? 2. What should UBI be in Detroit? 3. Should they be the same? 4. What happens if they're not the same? 5. What happens if they're the same?

1. $10,000. 2. $10,000 3. Yes. 4. They would be. 5. All of the proposed benefits of UBI.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#198
post #130

Interesting how this article spins Basic Income as something of particular interest to conservatives while liberals would object to it. I suppose that can help sell the concept to highly partisan anti-liberals, but I know plenty of liberals and progressives who strongly support Basic Income. The idea that the people employed in the bureaucracy managing the current mess of programs losing their job is a silly concern.…

> I would like Basic Income to be a bit more than $10,000 per year, though.

Well, that's one of the major problems with this scheme: a whole lotta people will as well. In much the same way that we currently hear "I can't raise my family on minimum wage!" we will hear "I can't raise my family on my UBI!" Anyone who can't see how UBI increases will become a promise of every presidential hopeful hasn't been paying attention.

When the people realize they can vote themselves money... something something, I can't remember the rest.

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I also get a kick out of how people think welfare programs will be eliminated by UBI, and that's why it won't be so expensive to implement. So what happens when someone on UBI has their car break down or, as will often be the case, just flat-out doesn't budget properly and now they can't buy groceries? We're just going to let them starve? Of course not. There will be a safety net below the UBI.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#199
post #99

This article says it's talking about a universal basic income, and makes the usual point that a completely universal, no-strings-attached income is simple to administer, doesn't have poverty traps, etc. And then, towards the end where it starts looking at numbers, it starts saying things like > But by excluding 45 million retirees who already receive a basic income through Social Security, the cost falls to $2.7 tril…

It's not just wealthier people who will be worse off - it's everyone. Basic income is known to create a large disincentive for work. In previous experiments (Mincome) labor supply dropped by about 10% - double what happened during the great recession. This means that fewer working mothers can find child care, fewer laborers to mow your lawn, fewer nurses, fewer teachers, etc. No matter how much money you give to peop…

I am wondering how bad the disincentive to work really is. In the microcosm of my family home, our kids have their basic needs (and then some) met, they receive allowances, and yet they still seek ways to earn extra money. My expectation is that there are plenty of humans in our nation (let alone the world) who will have desires that will outstrip the about $10,000 of basic income. For anyone in business fretting on available labor, it seems the costs of wages, benefits, and maintaining a work environment suitable for human activity is a much bigger issue - which are mostly addressed by ever growing use of automation. There's already talk of $15/hr wages spurring on ever more automation at fast-food restaurants and retailers - and that $15/hr push being made largely because of the number of people who receive government assistance while holding down jobs (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/04/13/get-a-job-most-wel...).

Anyway, per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mincome, this 5 year study has many qualifiers placed upon why the drop in labor, with the more interesting of these involving child care, education, and mental health: The results showed an impact on labor markets, with working hours dropping one percent for men, three percent for married women, and five percent for unmarried women. However, some have argued these drops may be artificially low because participants knew the guaranteed income was temporary. These decreases in hours worked may be seen as offset by the opportunity cost of more time for family and education. Mothers spent more time rearing newborns, and the educational impacts are regarded as a success. Students in these families showed higher test scores and lower dropout rates. There was also an increase in adults continuing education. ... Manitoban economist Evelyn Forget conducted an analysis of the program in 2009 which was published in 2011. She found that only new mothers and teenagers worked substantially less. Mothers with newborns stopped working because they wanted to stay at home longer with their babies, and teenagers worked less because they weren't under as much pressure to support their families, which resulted in more teenagers graduating. In addition, those who continued to work were given more opportunities to choose what type of work they did. Forget found that in the period that Mincome was administered, hospital visits dropped 8.5 percent, with fewer incidents of work-related injuries, and fewer emergency room visits from accidents and injuries. Additionally, the period saw a reduction in rates of psychiatric hospitalization, and in the number of mental illness-related consultations with health professionals.

Re: A Basic Income Should Be the Next Big Thing

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I envision it as enough for someone to get by. So not enough for luxury expenditures. Basically food and shelter. I'm also looking at this from the perspective of someone in the UK who doesn't have to think of things like health care and education which changes things quite a bit. I'd say around $800 p/m per person would be plenty if you look at food and rent for a room in a shared apartment. Tax revenue should also…

The savings from laying off a few bureaucrats and jobcentre employees aren't going to change the fact that the £250bn needed just to give a $800/£550 per month BI to working age adults in the UK is a lot more than the £3bn spent on unemployment benefit. (eliminating tax credits, disability benefits and housing benefits will net another £110bn, but also render a lot of poor people poorer or even homeless, which is the…

I think you need to view state pensions and minimum income for pensioners into the numbers. You would also want to increase basic rate tax at least to the point where you'd reclaimed the money from anybody at or above the higher rate threshold.
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