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San Francisco Bubble

blog.larrold.com

191–200 of 393 posts

Re: San Francisco Bubble

#191
post #60

Money has been close to free for years. As the interest rate ticks up everything will change. It's already starting to. More expensive borrowing, less leverage, and better places to put dollars than venture. The one thing I really agree with though is the funny thing that happens here with the word "engineer". If you can make a website you somehow qualify for the title software engineer. By Bay Area standards, I myse…

If you have an engineering degree from an accredited program, you're an engineer. If you don't you're not. The US is very lax with usage of the word but in other countries it's classed in the same way "Doctor" is.

US is very lax with words, in general.

Re: San Francisco Bubble

#192
Who cares? If you're not part of the scene there, why does it matter to you? If those people weren't in "silly" startups, they'd probably end up in silly corporate roles. Or even worse, they'd be unemployed and be another strain on the current system.

There are a lot of ideas you may find silly but others find interesting enough to spend their working hours to make a success. If you only focus on finances, tons of them will fail. If you look at the experience they'll have doing it, I'm sure some of them will find it was a success.

I've worked at a couple startups and I've worked at some big corporations. There are bad coders everywhere. There are bad ideas everywhere. There are also a lot of jealous people who apparently get bent out of shape because people who are not the best engineer ever are making more money than them and getting to take time off arbitrarily.

Instead of focusing on how much you think their startup is stupid, or how they shouldn't get time off because they're not as good as you (based on who knows what), why not just focus on what you have, what you do, and what you like? Stop living against them and live for yourself.

Re: San Francisco Bubble

#193
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea no kidding. "AppNexus helps brands connect with consumers, empowering agencies and advertisers with a uniquely powerful approach to programmatic online advertising." Thanks for working on Ad Tech, the very thing that powers this bubble by trading attention as a commodity. Other people work on silly startups, but this shit is akin to HFT.

Unless microtransactions for content take off, and they haven't, ad tech is necessary to incentivize content on the web. 90% of the websites you read could not exist without the ecosystem that appnexus is a big player in. Hacker News, being one big ad for ycombinator, doesn't need to bother. So he's doing a real thing that provides real value to the web. And it's actually a sustainable business, to boot. Lastly, ther…

"90% of the websites you read could not exist without the ecosystem that appnexus is a big player in."

That's ok. The internet would be better off without most junk websites, and the ones I like, I'm willing to pay for.

Re: San Francisco Bubble

#194
post #62

This is why the free market is so great. 1. Everything too expensive? Good, don't live here, eventually enough people will leave to drive all of the costs back to other market norms. 2. Dumb startups? Good, they will fail, people won't be able to afford to live here and they'll leave. 3. People are spoiled? Uber is cheaper and more convenient in some cases than taking the local transportation. When people stop taking…

Part of the fallacy of this is the implication that you need "good" engineers for most startups. I think, frankly, that many startups need a website with a google form + some excel sheets to get started and if the thing takes off they can hire someone who can use google to bang on stackoverflow. Very few things require genuinely novel pieces of code to work. Yes, lots of value can be captured using code, but you coul…

StitchFix started as an Excel sheet. https://www.reddit.com/r/startups/comments/2rjqt2/stitch_fix...

Re: San Francisco Bubble

#195
post #62

This is why the free market is so great. 1. Everything too expensive? Good, don't live here, eventually enough people will leave to drive all of the costs back to other market norms. 2. Dumb startups? Good, they will fail, people won't be able to afford to live here and they'll leave. 3. People are spoiled? Uber is cheaper and more convenient in some cases than taking the local transportation. When people stop taking…

Ok, as a perennial voice for free markets I agree with your observations, but not your point. Having lived through it I see the damage it is doing to individuals who will take years to recover.

Too many engineers today, perhaps like sports players, take a big salary, project it across 30 years and then say "Wow I've got millions headed my way, do I really need to bag my lunch?"

I've watched as they became both broke and depressed as the wave that was supporting those salaries and the technology that was supporting their employment have broken (as they always do) and they are suddenly "too old and too out of date."

Like the guy who was making $200K/year as a SOAP architect for some package that managed really expensive enterprise server and storage gear. When the wave passed and people moved to cheap white box servers in abundance using things like Docker or Chef to run and manage them, this guy walked into a world at 45 years of age with zero applicable experience to your distributed server cluster based company. And he is slowly burning what savings he had because the only entry level programmer job he could get is paying him $85K and his take home pay doesn't completely cover his burn rate (he optimistically expects to be promoted to a high paying job as soon as they see what he can do.)

If you are living the high life as an in demand engineer please don't be that guy. Start planning to provide funds for your kids education, or if you're not having kids ever then a fund to pay someone else's kids to take care of you when you're too old to work. Cut out recurring expenses in your life where ever you can and put excess money into savings or investment vehicles so that it can start working for you by earning more money. Understand that life is change until you die. Anticipate change to avoid having change drive your decisions.

Re: San Francisco Bubble

#196
I agree, things are probably too good to be true right now. I really don't think it's fair to blame engineers though. My only advice to people working in this industry is to save your money -- be sure to be keeping your money in an emergency fund of some kind incase something happens. That's my best practical advice.

Re: San Francisco Bubble

#197
post #62

This is why the free market is so great. 1. Everything too expensive? Good, don't live here, eventually enough people will leave to drive all of the costs back to other market norms. 2. Dumb startups? Good, they will fail, people won't be able to afford to live here and they'll leave. 3. People are spoiled? Uber is cheaper and more convenient in some cases than taking the local transportation. When people stop taking…

Part of the fallacy of this is the implication that you need "good" engineers for most startups. I think, frankly, that many startups need a website with a google form + some excel sheets to get started and if the thing takes off they can hire someone who can use google to bang on stackoverflow. Very few things require genuinely novel pieces of code to work. Yes, lots of value can be captured using code, but you coul…

>I think, frankly, that many startups need a website with a google form + some excel sheets to get started and if the thing takes off they can hire someone who can use google to bang on stackoverflow.

I agree, but this is mostly true because there's so much low-hanging fruit out there. If you look at the current successful startups like Uber and Airbnb, they're really trivial applications. That doesn't mean they can't create huge amounts of value by "trivially" repackaging services and connecting people.

Once the low-hanging fruit is developed during the next 10 years or so we can finally start focusing on actual high-tech engineering startups.

Re: San Francisco Bubble

#198

So its a bubble. What do you do about it? Move?

That's what I did in early summer of 2008. I moved away from Mountain View because everything felt over-priced and unsustainable. So I voted with my feet. Hello from Chicago. :-)

Re: San Francisco Bubble

#199
post #62

This is why the free market is so great. 1. Everything too expensive? Good, don't live here, eventually enough people will leave to drive all of the costs back to other market norms. 2. Dumb startups? Good, they will fail, people won't be able to afford to live here and they'll leave. 3. People are spoiled? Uber is cheaper and more convenient in some cases than taking the local transportation. When people stop taking…

This is why the free market is so great.

Intractability issues of Nash equilibria aside, if that's your take on an article ostensibly about sustained market disequilibria, then I don't think you fully understand what a 'free market' is supposed to entail.

Re: San Francisco Bubble

#200
post #62

This is why the free market is so great. 1. Everything too expensive? Good, don't live here, eventually enough people will leave to drive all of the costs back to other market norms. 2. Dumb startups? Good, they will fail, people won't be able to afford to live here and they'll leave. 3. People are spoiled? Uber is cheaper and more convenient in some cases than taking the local transportation. When people stop taking…

Sorry, but this is a totally heartless comment. By saying things like "Good, they will fail, people won't be able to afford to live here and they'll leave" you're completely overlooking the human costs and implications. Things don't just change overnight. It's an slow, painful, eventual decline. Things shouldn't need to be pushed to a breaking point for us to make necessary changes to alleviate these problems.

Wait, what are the problems?

"Everyone rides an Uber" is great for the Uber drivers. "People spend too much on organic produce" is great for the farmers. "Even bad engineers are in high demand" is great for the mediocre engineers.

Housing is a problem, but this post didn't mention it.

So before we start making changes, what are the problems in your opinion?

And, then, what changes are you proposing?

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