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The first Bitcoin post on HN

news.ycombinator.com

181–190 of 302 posts

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#181

'always be naysaying' is the mantra of about 80% of HNers

Well, yeah, but more like 97,89%, from what I gather. From time to time I fancy this idea of toying with some NLP package to calculate percentage of the HN comments that go like "Yes, but no", "Cool, but meh" or "Sure, but no way". Oh wait, what did I just do?

The ~97% of comments that are "nice idea but..." is probably not far off the percentage of nice ideas discussed on her whose implementations don't quite work out :)

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#182
post #162
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure there are currencies with a similarly sized monetary base but which are far more stable. Bitcoin's track record as a currency is pretty laughable but just big enough to provide a nice bullet point for the Bitcoin investment vehicle/get rich quick scheme sales pitch.

Perhaps similar in size, but not in newness (the market needs to sort out fair value), untested exchanges, difficulty of moving money in and out. These are early adopter challenges, but they are also sources of volatility.

Bitcoin's volatility seems to be entirely a function of demand. People buy it because the price is going up. People sell it because they want to take profits or are scared the price is dropping.

You'd be crazy to use it right now for legal goods and services. The view of many Bitcoin critics (including myself) that it's horrible as a currency but a massive success as an investment vehicle seems stronger than ever.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#183

'always be naysaying' is the mantra of about 80% of HNers

Well, yeah, but more like 97,89%, from what I gather. From time to time I fancy this idea of toying with some NLP package to calculate percentage of the HN comments that go like "Yes, but no", "Cool, but meh" or "Sure, but no way". Oh wait, what did I just do?

[deleted]

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#184
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corollary: how many bitcoins would you have mined if you'd bought $1000 worth of the best mining GPUs on that day?

It wasn't until over a year later (July 2010) that the first block was likely mined using GPUs. Satoshi implored people in December 2009 (several months after this post) to postpone mining using GPUs for as long as possible[1]. [1]: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12.msg54#msg54

Actually the first person known to GPU-mine (supposedly an Apple OS engineer, friend of "BitcoinEXpress" on bitcointalk.org) claims he did it in May 2010, wrote his own miner, running on 3 x AMD Radeon HD 4850 graphics cards. The claim sounds plausible. There was a small bump in the global hashrate in May that seems to correspond to the power of this setup.

I commented on it here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=40876.msg520645#msg5...

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#186
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The costs of producing BTC or USD are not their backings. You can't exchange your BTC back into electricity. The USD (and usually most other currencies) aims to be indirectly backed by the corresponding amount of goods they represent within the currency zone and their legal status. BTC isn't even indirectly backed. It just exists. And that's okay for its purpose.

You can't exchange your BTC back into electricity. Huh? Why not? Surely you could just buy some solar panels with bitcoins, or convert them to another currency and then buy electricity from the grid.

But I can't expect that I will be able to exchange the BTC for a fixed amount of electricity, which is the same as the fixed amount of electricity I originally exchanged for BTC. Hence BTC is not convertible, and not "backed"

I can buy gold with the US dollar, but it doesn't mean the US dollar is backed by gold.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that reasoning, I can convert my USD into donuts, and hence the USD is backed by donuts, hence the term "dollars to donuts".

Well, it is partly backed by donuts, along with any other commodities or instruments of value that it can be easily exchanged with.

Which really puts the lie to the idea of currency being "backed by" a scarce resource at all, which is the main premise of goldbugs. I'm totally okay saying that a currency is backed by the entire economy of goods being exchanged for it myself.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin is different in that is the purest form of a fiat currency in the sense that it is backed by nothing and thus has no intrinsic value whatsoever. Traditional currencies, on the other hand, are at least fractionally backed by (usually) gold and government bonds which in itself are backed by a government's ability to tax its citizens. There is also a second problem in that BTC is deflationary by design. Deflatio…

>> Bitcoin is different in that is the purest form of a fiat currency in the sense that it is backed by nothing and thus has no intrinsic value whatsoever. It's backed by the tremendous amount of electricity required to run the transaction processing network (ie. "mining"). Remember this is the world's largest distributed supercomputer. BTC is a proxy for electricity, that's why mining equipment ended up at ASICs so…

>> There is no way we could print the $2000 trillion dollars[1] of derivatives now in existence.

This is a red herring. You also couldn't print the money to pay for all the patents now in existence. Or all the copyrights in existence. Or even all the software now in existence. These things still get bought and sold in USD on a regular basis.

>> The USD is currently backed by absolutely nothing.

At the base, USD are backed by the fact that one can only pay taxes to the US in USD and US bonds are denominated in USD.

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#189
post #5
post #4

>Well this is an exceptionally cute idea, but there is absolutely no way that anyone is going to have any faith in this currency. Hah!

People should be required to place a monetary bet whenever they make a bold claim in public. I think we would see less comments like this one.

I think we would see fewer comments that technologies like Bitcoin (or cold fusion, or for that matter Google) would be successful if monetary bets depended on them. Or a lot more broke futurologists :)

Re: The first Bitcoin post on HN

#190
post #20

One of my favorite quotes (forgot by whom): " Great ideas are fragile at birth because they are indistinguishable from crazy stupid ideas."

Yeah, I think the lesson I've learned from not embracing Bitcoin sooner, is that I should spend more time analyzing a novel idea, and not be dismissive of one that might seem crazy initially. However, with all the information flow these days, it's kinda hard, but sure worth the effort.
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