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What's slowing down the AI buildout

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Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#181
post #31
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its only expensive because its been regulated to death. In terms of potential energy output in a given area its tops.

It's been regulated "to death" because it's responsible for some of the worst man-made catastrophes of all time and has made large swaths of land uninhabitable for ~forever. Move fast and break things this is not.

This is completely BS. There were no deaths from Fukushima from radiation exposure itself (one worker's lung cancer death was later linked to it, but the dose in question makes even that contested), and the deaths that did happen in Fukushima came overwhelmingly from a botched evacuation, not radiation. Elderly patients dying from disrupted care and panic, not fallout. And Fukushima only happened because of multiple natural disasters aligning in the most unfortunate way possible, including a fucking tsunami hitting the plant directly.

Chernobyl was a disaster caused by Soviet incompetence combined with an RBMK reactor design that literally had no proper containment structure. That's the worst case that has ever occurred, nothing like it has happened since, and it can't really happen again with any reactor built with a real containment vessel, which is standard everywhere outside the old Soviet bloc. Three Mile Island is the perfect example, a partial meltdown caused by a mix of mechanical failure and operator error back in 1979, and the containment held. Zero deaths, zero meaningful radiation release. Even with human screwups and old tech, the actual design of the reactor kept it from becoming a Chernobyl.

And even taking Chernobyl as the worst case scenario we've ever seen, the exclusion zone covers about 2500 km^2 of land area, which isn't small, but it's not "large swathes of land" either. You get irradiated from flying in airplanes more than walking around most of the exclusion zone these days, obviously other than around Pripyat itself. Hell, you can take a walking tour through the zone, I'd very much recommend it (after the war concludes :p)

Meanwhile the reality right now is that fossil fuel sources are polluting the entire planet actively. Coal plants release more radioactive material into the environment through fly ash than nuclear plants do under normal operation. Coal is far from clean in terms of radioactivity on top of everything else it's doing, and it's actively making the world uninhabitable at a much larger and faster scale than nuclear ever has, but yet we're holding nuclear to some higher standard due to years of propaganda.

It's not a perfect technology obviously, but it sure as hell is better than basically all fossil fuel sources.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#182

The politicization of AI has been a huge damper. NYS put a 1 year moratorium on datacenters with some municipalities doing so as well. My town did a 1 year ban, despite us being a retarded location for a data center (more expensive land than surrounding areas, less water access, far from power). US has also been lagging in power capacity, because of the anti-growth segment of politics. More nukes.

The retardation has mostly been a case of AI companies fearmongering, lobbying the govt and the govt not reassuming people against job losses. Local governments passing moratoriums is just common sense populism.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#183
post #8

We should have been building more nuclear. We’re not going to upgrade civilization with windmills and putting on sweaters. Think of how much power we’ll need for millions of robots?

Nuclear power only makes sense long term. There needs to be 50/50 investment in nlong term nuclear and short term renewables

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#184
post #88
post #79

Apparently they're fast tracking gas fired power plant approvals, so we can expect production to increase and the climate crisis to worsen. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/07/donald-trump-ep...

Supposedly the backlog for gas turbines is over 5 years at this point, so they can approve all they want.

Yes they will approve as many as possible to drive the price of turbines even higher.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#185
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how public works funding would look if 90% of the nation wasn’t painfully far behind in maintenance. But also, AI data centers have been around for like 3 years. It’s not surprising they haven’t reached a high level of efficiency yet. IMO they are not an argument against excessive power use (I know this is not your argument, just a common one), but rather and argument FOR better (read: nuclear) power generat…

Why do so many otherwise seemingly rational people pretend that nuclear is the answer to our energy needs? It doesn't make sense economically, it's just wishful thinking. The only cheap nuclear energy is from plants that have already been built, because it won't help if we tear them down. But as soon as you factor in the costs of building, insurance and storage of materials, it's always more expensive than renewables…

I don't think anyone reasonable is saying we should only do nuclear. The actual position is that we need a mix of both nuclear and renewables while ramping down non-renewable sources as fast as possible, because you need both intermittent cheap generation and reliable baseload that doesn't care if the wind stops blowing or clouds roll over the panels.

The pricing story remains unconvincing to me. LCOE comparisons measure the cost of producing a unit of electricity, but they don't account for what it costs to actually integrate that electricity into a working grid. Solar and wind are cheap on paper, but they still need storage or backup generation to cover the hours they're not producing, and that cost gets left out of the simple dollar per MWh number. Once you factor in grid balancing and storage, the gap closes a lot, and in some studies it disappears entirely depending on the region's wind and solar resources. Obviously things have to be considered in the context of where we're putting these power plants, Norwegians can probably afford to rely a lot more on offshore wind and hydro than a place like Serbia could.

Nuclear plants will obviously be expensive to build, and will likely always be more expensive than renewables to initially build just due to the sheer complexity involved when compared to renewable sources, but I can't think of a better use of that money personally, especially compared to how much gets spent on far worse things like chucking a billion dollars worth of missiles at Iran[0] for quite literally no reason and especially benefit to anyone (other than arms industry I guess) whatsoever.

Also, already built and paid off nuclear plants are consistently some of the cheapest electricity around, often profitable without any subsidy at all. 70%(!!!!) of France's electricity comes from nuclear. They exported more electricity last year than countries like Belgium consumes in an entire year. They enjoy some of the cheapest power prices in the region because of their historical nuclear fleet, and had people had the same attitude back in the day (looking at you, German "green" party), that fleet would've never gotten built. Letting your offspring enjoy the shade of the tree you plant today and all that stuff, it'll always be too expensive until we actually hunker down and just build the bloody things.

And yeah, new builds like Flamanville have been a mess on cost and timeline, that's a fair criticism of new construction, but it doesn't erase what a mature nuclear fleet does for a grid once it's actually built, and can generally be applied to pretty much any infrastructure project anywhere in the world.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48845514 - US seeks cheaper hunter-killer drones after Iran destroys $1B worth of Reapers

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#186
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the headline: >the problem is getting it where it's needed. Same issue with EV rollout. EVs are great if you have a single family home and a few grand to spend on outfitting a fast charger. Most apartment renters however are shit out of luck. I mean it has been how many years now of EV cars on the road and virtually no sweeping buildout of EV chargers in apartment complexes that I can see at least. There was a p…

Why are people so convinced that we need an EV charger per car at every home? We need enough high speed chargers in the right places. The average American drives 37 miles per day. That pencils out to less than 30 minutes of charging per week using current high speed standards (which will continue to drop). Your friend could take their car at 20% if they knew that they could charge quickly at their destination. We don…

> Why are people so convinced that we need an EV charger per car at every home?

> After a week of just running the 1.5 kw slow charger I realized that was fine.

Wait, did you tell that you were using EV charger at home actually? I'm confused by the wording.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't make that mistake. I actually suspect that the actual costs may be higher than the API prices. I think those may still be subsidized. how are you still under this delusion? so you think that all the hosting companies on openrouter are just burning money selling GLM 5.2 tokens at 1/6th the cost of opus 4.8 api pricing? Mark Zuckerberg literally tweeted today that they are pricing Muse Spark 1.1 much lower be…

> delusion It's not me the one that believes whatever comes out of the mouth of Zuckerberg.

I love how you think that is my primary argument. Want to address the openrouter point?

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#188
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Public housing failed not because of insufficient funding or support but because a small fraction of residents were sociopaths and criminals. The authorities refused to take decisive action to quickly evict the troublemakers and so they wrecked the projects for everyone. Section 8 vouchers have been far more effective by enabling low-income people to rent housing from private landlords at market rates. There are some…

> overall it's a better model than public housing. I don't know about better, but it's what we've got. The problem is a shortage of housing, and the government building housing solves for that because the public market has been shown to be incompetent at that.

mostly because the state has made it illegal or costly to build housing. The only reason the state would do better is if they can ignore either costs or their own regulation. e

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#189
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how public works funding would look if 90% of the nation wasn’t painfully far behind in maintenance. But also, AI data centers have been around for like 3 years. It’s not surprising they haven’t reached a high level of efficiency yet. IMO they are not an argument against excessive power use (I know this is not your argument, just a common one), but rather and argument FOR better (read: nuclear) power generat…

Why do so many otherwise seemingly rational people pretend that nuclear is the answer to our energy needs? It doesn't make sense economically, it's just wishful thinking. The only cheap nuclear energy is from plants that have already been built, because it won't help if we tear them down. But as soon as you factor in the costs of building, insurance and storage of materials, it's always more expensive than renewables…

In US at least much of the high cost is completely self inflicted, driven by Byzantine bureaucratic processes mostly unrelated to the actual engineering requirements necessary for building a safe reactor.

Re: What's slowing down the AI buildout

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both are questionable. Tidal power is super neat in theory but we really struggle to make it viable in practice. GPUs in space are probably the lower risk option, but with even more questionable economics My preferred outlandish idea would be to put the data centers next to solar farms in the Sahara. I just don't know yet how we are going to make the batteries to power that through the night

You put mirrors in space so the sun shines at night in certain places.

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