How Kalshi Infects the News • Hacker News Board

Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#181

Post by taurath » Mon, Jul 06, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC

throwitaway222 wrote: post #169

nradov wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you try hard enough you can always find a plausible sounding excuse why failure is inevitable. And yet on Saturday at the neighborhood Independence Day party I met a guy who immigrated from Ukraine about 25 years ago with no money, no college education, no family support, and no English language skills. Instead of complaining he just went to work and while not exactly wealthy he's now doing fairly well as an elect…

This is why immigrants are often the most exemplar people of the American Dream today. Most of the people today pushing socialist or communist agendas are not these immigrants, but instead children of very wealthy company owners that only saw a downward trend from their parent's trajectory. It's from that privileged that they found fighting for other people their cause. However it's misguided and they don't even unde…

> And they don't understand that most people just want a meaningful job, not handouts and not free stuff.

Wanting my tax dollars to go to children who can’t access food is not begging for a handout - you’re repeating middle school Republican propaganda at this point.

I’m a success story, but unlike you I’ve developed some empathy for the very real cycle of poverty I myself got out of, instead of the jingoistic “just create value”.

> They're in a small class of very privileged people, and they're pushing an ideology that has taken so many people from the world.

This is exactly how I feel about your ideology - that if only people would stop being a victim and think outside the box instead of complaining then they would see a better world. You’ve never dealt with disability or not being able bodied, you don’t see the value in anything other than what makes money.

There’s a spec of truth in it - some people turn their minds off and think of themselves as victims. I think of myself as a survivor, and a lucky one at that. I’ve overcome a lot and I can see where if many things outside of my control went the other way I could be dead right now. Wanting the path to be more clear for the next person is exactly the “see the world shine” that you advocate for.

We have the highest concentration of wealth ever in this country, because that’s what this system produces right now. Has it improved the world for the average person or made it worse?

Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#182

Post by mothballed » Mon, Jul 06, 2026, 10:04 PM UTC

taurath wrote: post #177

throwitaway222 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or you can think differently, 4 families can buy a 1 acre land plot, 5 or 6 children and a couple dads then start building a modest house (maybe 1200sqft) and then resell the entire thing in about a year for 4 times the land-only price. Suddenly 4 families that were making 25k each per year have $1.3m from some tiny plot they bought in the Santa Cruz mountains. Then they do it again and again and again. This is LITER…

“Just think differently” but the answer starts with have a pile of money

You could probably get away with it without much money once per county or maybe state, max out every loan imaginable, buy shit land (probably 50% financed at best on vacant land), declare you're owner-building your own house for non-commercial reasons. It's possible in my state. By the second or third time though your creditors and the planning board will be on to you and you'll be chased out of the county and you'll have to relearn all the bureaucracy again, which is the hardest part.

Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#183

Post by nradov » Mon, Jul 06, 2026, 10:06 PM UTC

game_the0ry wrote: post #63

Did anyone else think it was strange how fast legitimate news orgs (cnn for example) integrated prediction markets into their businesses?

It's no stranger than how fake news organizations like CNN started using random tweets as legitimate sources.

Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#184

Post by throwitaway222 » Mon, Jul 06, 2026, 10:09 PM UTC

mothballed wrote: post #182

taurath wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Just think differently” but the answer starts with have a pile of money

You could probably get away with it without much money once per county or maybe state, max out every loan imaginable, buy shit land (probably 50% financed at best on vacant land), declare you're owner-building your own house for non-commercial reasons. It's possible in my state. By the second or third time though your creditors and the planning board will be on to you and you'll be chased out of the county and you'll…

There are also 9 states, including texas, that regulate the build entirely by process, not licenses.

Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#185

Post by throw0101a » Mon, Jul 06, 2026, 10:23 PM UTC

baggachipz wrote: post #3

The unprecedented era of gambling on literally everything everywhere is an absolute cancer on society, made completely legal by absolute greed and degeneracy at the highest levels of government. I don't know how we put this genie back in the bottle (amongst many detrimental genies).

> I don't know how we put this genie back in the bottle (amongst many detrimental genies).

Why don't we just let The Market™ decide? /s

Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#186

Post by SoftTalker » Mon, Jul 06, 2026, 10:28 PM UTC

topgrain2 wrote: post #170

SoftTalker wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you spend the money you put in to an HSA every year, you still saved the marginal income tax on that money, which is a lot better return than most other short-term "safe" ways you might save for unexpected expenses.

Yes, it provides some benefits to fund one's HSA even if one spends all that money in the same year, but the cost of the program (in terms of tax income lost, including the time-cost of it) is far higher for accounts that don't do that, and instead spend none of the money on healthcare. Like, remove the eligibility restrictions and just about 100% of people with a financial planner would soon have an HSA they intend…

Interesting. My financial planner has never suggested using my HSA as an auxilliary IRA. Maybe because he wouldn't earn any management fees from that....?

Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#187

Post by mothballed » Mon, Jul 06, 2026, 10:31 PM UTC

throwitaway222 wrote: post #184

mothballed wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could probably get away with it without much money once per county or maybe state, max out every loan imaginable, buy shit land (probably 50% financed at best on vacant land), declare you're owner-building your own house for non-commercial reasons. It's possible in my state. By the second or third time though your creditors and the planning board will be on to you and you'll be chased out of the county and you'll…

There are also 9 states, including texas, that regulate the build entirely by process, not licenses.

God bless Texas

Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#188

Post by romanhounds » Mon, Jul 06, 2026, 10:35 PM UTC

scottyah wrote: post #157

giantrobot wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what you mean, I mean I made a million dollars with only a small hundred million dollar loan from my dad! This sort of entrepreneurship is available to anyone in America.¹ ¹ Terms and conditions apply.

The propagation of this type of mindset is more damaging than the gambling.

how so? because people don't like when you move into their area and buy your way into everything? Displacing the people around? The "artisanal farmer" with 100M cap investment into gear.

People who don't shun and humiliate these silverspooners are more damaging than the gambling.

Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#189

Post by DonsDiscountGas » Mon, Jul 06, 2026, 11:09 PM UTC

mcmcmc wrote: post #97

DonsDiscountGas wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. It's easy "content"for them and adds a veneer of quantitative rigor to what would otherwise be pure vibes.

Not sure why you’re getting downvotes, this is exactly the case, along with I’m sure a nice payoff from the prediction markets for sponsored segments. Same reason betting odds are so heavily integrated into sports news

Maybe people read it as an endorsement rather than an observation. No biggy, just Internet points. Though you have apparently rescued me from -2 to +5 so thank you.

Re: How Kalshi Infects the News

#190

Post by topgrain2 » Mon, Jul 06, 2026, 11:26 PM UTC

SoftTalker wrote: post #186

topgrain2 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it provides some benefits to fund one's HSA even if one spends all that money in the same year, but the cost of the program (in terms of tax income lost, including the time-cost of it) is far higher for accounts that don't do that, and instead spend none of the money on healthcare. Like, remove the eligibility restrictions and just about 100% of people with a financial planner would soon have an HSA they intend…

Interesting. My financial planner has never suggested using my HSA as an auxilliary IRA. Maybe because he wouldn't earn any management fees from that....?

You’d have to also have a qualifying healthcare plan so you could have an HSA in the first place, and enough income to easily cover any medical bills without having to touch your HSA balance, after maxing out other tax-advantaged retirement options. Take away the first restriction and it remains a niche option, but does become realistic to aim for as extra tax-advantaged retirement savings on top of what’s already available.