Why humanoid? Surely there must be a superior physical form factor than one mimicking human anatomy. Is it just supposed to be more psychologically acceptable?
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South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots
181–190 of 223 posts
Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots
#182Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, an electric motor is like 10cm on a side. A set of robot arms that can fold laundry are like a 100cm cube. Most people aren't going to have space for two of them. And the arms need cameras too...
A washer+dryer is pretty huge already. Seems like it could get some robot arms without changing the form factor dramatically. That said, I think this is way farther off than anyone thinks. I want to know what the maintenance schedule looks like for robot arms. Looks like a lot of small moving parts. Probably a lot of plastic gears. In an industrial setting, sure, maintenance is just an expense. But wheels require les…
Plastic gears? I sure hope not!
As I said, maybe earlier in this thread, I've now seen a laundry folding robot work, but I think loading a dishwasher and then putting away dishes is going to come first.
Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots
#183Earlier quoted context omitted.
It doesn't need to be at a consumer price point first, it needs to replace a human at an existing warehouse or manufacturing role first, and that's achievable in the next two years at this point. When you have arms that can reach into the dishwasher, you're also going to want them to put away your dishes. And so suddenly they need to get up high. And you're not going to have a SECOND set of arms at your washer/dryer…
Ok, so your idea is to sell a machine without software and then hand wave the software part away by saying it will be released at a later date? Sounds like a scam to me. You'll just end up with another AMD situation where the company is only interested in selling the hardware and has zero interest in developing the software, because it costs money and can only ever generate revenue by selling more hardware, which wil…
My idea? No. I'm pointing out that if you release something capable of loading a dishwasher and putting away dishes, it could be as little as a future software improvement to make it do something else.
Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots
#184Earlier quoted context omitted.
Humanoid robots that can do manual labor are going to be make or break for wealthy economies in the next two decades. Aging populations need help, and most successful nations do not have enough young people to do half the work they need done.
I agree they may be strategically necessary. I’m just less convinced that “commercial humanoids by 2028” means anything close to replacing a meaningful amount of labor by then
Certainly. I would imagine that by the end of 2028, there are less than 1000 humanoid robots replacing a human worker. By the end of 29, maybe 5000.
Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
Humanoid robots that can do manual labor are going to be make or break for wealthy economies in the next two decades. Aging populations need help, and most successful nations do not have enough young people to do half the work they need done.
I honestly think the opposite. Successful nations haven’t had enough young people to care for the elderly because they’ve all been employed as knowledge workers. Knowledge work is going away rapidly. The only work that will be left are things that require actual human bodies (for now). In short, jobs like elder care are suddenly going to have an enormous number of new job seekers, since it requires human presence and…
Are you familiar with Jevon's paradox? I think knowledge work is exploding.
Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
The "help" goes beyond taking care of themselves. What about food, clothing, infrastructure maintenance, and so on? An inverted population pyramid requires massive increase in the productivity of the economically active part of the population.
Or a regression in the standard of living. Ideally to a comfortable sweet spot for people.
The elderly already have a significant regression in standard of living, often catastrophically. That's a pretty big problem I would like to improve. There are so many people who don't leave their house because they struggle to get clean and they're embarrassed, and then their social connections collapse. It's going to be a long time before we have the technology to really help with elder care, but boy is it worth it.
It's also something we could help by getting rid of zoning in cities, of course, because we constantly push low income elderly out to the edges of urban areas where they can afford to live, rather than allowing supply to keep up with demand in dense, walkable, accessible places where people who can't drive can actually have quality of life.
Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are you saying autonomous driving is a solved problem, even at scale? I haven't seen any Waymo in my small town in Southern Europe yet.
> "small town" in "Southern Europe" I've highlighted the two main issues you are currently experiencing.
Then it's not a solved problem.
Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots
#188Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Why humanoid? Surely there must be a superior physical form factor than one mimicking human anatomy. There probably (certainly) is. But if you want to build a multi-purpose platform, you’ll soon be faced with a dumb challenge: nearly all interfaces (door knobs, taps, electric switches, cutlery, sponges, every single button out there, pillow cases, wrenches, hammers, signs…) are made for humans. Placed at human hand…
Most fixed infrastructure like switches and buttons that can be operated with a single hand are amenable to any robot with at least one hand. We've had Sawyer demonstrations operating tools clearly designed for humans for more then a decade ago and Mobile Aloha had demonstrations showing how it can operate the switches of an elevator just fine. None of these are humanoid robots. The moment you have mobile tools, what…
I think we might be talking past each other.
I’m not arguing that humanoids are the only robots that can operate in human environments, nor that specialized robots shouldn’t exist. We already know they should, and do, and work very well.
I’m saying it depends on what you’re after.
If you want a specialized machine, then by all means optimize the form factor for that task.
If you want a general-purpose platform, then you’re faced with a near-infinite variety of environments, tools, and situations: homes, offices, hospitals, factories, hotels, streets…
Almost all of them were designed around human reach, dexterity, height, mobility and perception.
> The moment you have mobile tools, whats the point in forcing the robot to hold them using a human hand? You can put them on a tool changer now or have a gripper that works for the specific task. Why does a robot need to hold a wrench using a humanoid hand?
It doesn’t. The wrench was just one example among many. Nearly all our tools and interfaces are designed around human hands and bodies. If a different manipulator works just as well across all of them, great. My point isn’t that it must literally be a human hand.
> I think its incredibly unreasonable to suggest that you need to solve every single problem ever encountered in human existence to be allowed to solve one much simpler problem.
That’s not what I’m suggesting.
I’m saying it’s a deployment strategy. Start with the form factor that’s already compatible with the largest installed base of tools and infrastructure. Not because it’s mechanically optimal, but because it minimises the amount of adaptation required from the market.
And enables you to sell to markets you aren’t even aware exist.
If, over time, you discover that hands don’t need five fingers, legs don’t need knees, or an entirely different morphology delivers much better performance, then you have both the experience and the demonstrated value to justify changing the robot, or even convince your customers to change the environment to fit a better robot.
They’re basically trying to go for the "one size fits most" of robotics. And yes, we both know how well that usually fits anyone.
I’m not convinced either, but I can understand the logic.
Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots
#189What's incredible is how much resistance there is in the U.S. to do what for other countries is the obvious strategy forward. The U.S. — after decades of seeing manufacturing being outsourced — suddenly has an incredible advantage in data centers that is producing onshore facilities that are adding hundreds of billions of dollars in annual export revenue, and instead of there being a united front to maximize that adv…
I live two miles (as the crow flies) from the site of a new construction of a data center. It’s being built by a European company. They will be installing gas turbines for power generation. Are we far enough away so that low frequency sound won’t affect our quality of life? We are seriously considering selling our home and moving. It’s a huge gamble for us. We are also noticing homes are staying on the market much lo…
That's a reasonable concern. Any industrial site is going to be a concern for nearby residences. But even proposed sites far away from any residential settlements are being opposed. The proposed National Data Center moratorium, for instance, is completely sweeping and would be devastating for U.S. strategic interests.
As for tax revenue, data centers contribute significantly to local communities.
https://www.wyedc.org/media/p/item/61886/data-centers-provid...
"Loudoun County, Virginia, often dubbed the "Data Center Capital of the World," provides a compelling example of how data centers can reshape a community's fiscal landscape. In 2018, the county hosted about 13 million square feet of permitted data centers. By 2024, that figure skyrocketed to 43 million square feet—a 231% increase in just six years.
This remarkable growth has substantially boosted Loudoun's tax base. The county's data center industry now contributes an estimated $890 million annually in tax revenue, nearly matching its entire operating budget of $940 million.
What makes data centers particularly advantageous is their cost-to-revenue ratio. For every dollar of tax revenue received from data centers, the county spends just $0.04 to support them, compared to $0.25 for traditional businesses. This financial efficiency has allowed Loudoun County to maintain the lowest real property tax rate in Northern Virginia—approximately 25% lower than neighboring counties."
Re: South Korea to spend $1T on more memory chip production and humanoid robots
#190I wonder how Germany missed the semi manufacturing train? They had literally everything: universities, manufacturing culture, expertise and supporting supply chains, cash. I forgot, they also had ASML, freaking next door!
They had a large memory manufacturer, Infineon, who spun out their memory division as Qimonda which then went bankrupt [1]. They were the 2nd largest in the world at one time apparently. Looking back, it's easy to say the German govt should have thrown them a billion or two to keep them afloat. However, state intervention was very unpopular at the time in economic circles, and there was much furor over bailouts follo…
There were plenty of other DRAM manufacture before them as well. But the Boom and bust cycle wipe out those who weren't big enough or adequately prepared.
Nearly every single DRAM cycle we go through the same thing. People are saying memory are so cheap we are going to get 32GB/ 64GB / 128GB very soon. Just like they did 2-3 years before. Then every single DRAM up cycle they were earning insane amount of money, with this one being exceptionally high. Not only covering their previous lost but also extra profits. And every single time people cry out price fixing.
And every single time, Interviewer, financial reporters or share holders will ask TSMC's CEO Morris Chang the same question, and this is before TSMC was even well known in Tech cycle, will they make DRAM given it is just Fabs, TSMC could do it. And every single time in the past 20 - 30 years Morris had to explain the whole thing again.
Frankly speaking I have been rumpling about DRAM being commodity on HN for nearly 20 years. It is the first time I have seen a few comments finally picking this up as shown in the current top comment.